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May 1 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Latest. European officials are seeking to make what some fear is a final effort to try and salvage #IranDeal and unlock IRGC stalemate. @enriquemora_ has proposed going to Tehran, western diplos say. Iran is yet to answer. wsj.com/articles/europ…
Although there has been little sign of the US preparing to announce the talks have failed, US, European diplomats are pessimistic about breakthrough. Iran has so far shut down discussion around FTO conditions. But while European officials are seeking to persuade Iran to forego-2-
FTO IRGC lifting demand, diplomats say they’re open to Iran asks on other issues if that opens the way to a breakthrough. Washington will listen to constructive counter proposals, they say, if it doesn’t mean a broad renegotiation of the JCPOA revival deal. -3-
Some think we could be set for a long impasse on IRGC issue, with talks comatose and potentially doomed but not killed off. “A long term impasse is certainly possible,” said former US official who has worked on Iran nuclear issue. “Neither side wants to declare the talks dead”-4-

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More from @laurnorman

laurence norman Profile picture
Mar 13
Just Ran: US says Russia should back down on written guarantees sanctions demand in #IranTalks or they'll seek alternative agreement with Iran, excluding Moscow. wsj.com/articles/u-s-w… -1-
A senior State Department official said if #Russia presses its guarantee demands or doesn’t reply “in the coming week,” Washington would need to “very quickly consider an alternative path.” -2-
U.S. official says would need to quickly explore an alternative deal if Russia won't back down, given pressing time constraints. Too early to say if that would be interim deal or a JCPOA replica. At this point, "wouldn’t rule anything out.” -3-
Read 9 tweets
laurence norman Profile picture
Mar 9
Understand from two sources that Russia @Amb_Ulyanov presented updated non paper yesterday to EU which broadened Moscow’s sanctions guarantee demands in direction that Lavrov spoke of on Saturday. That includes a demand to protect Russian trade with Iran from western sanctions-1-
The paper was not well received. “The paper was rejected out of hand,” said a senior diplomat. “They know it has nothing to do with JCPOA.” -2-
So where does this stand? Sources say a deal could be reached with this issue still hanging over the talks. Could this Russian position mean restoring JCPOA without Russian backing? That gets tricky, former and current officials say. Joint Commission decisions supposed to be -3-
Read 5 tweets
laurence norman Profile picture
Mar 7
Our latest as @Bagheri_Kani heads home unexpectedly, promising a swift return, Russia doubles down on sanctions guarantee demands and Vienna negotiations wind to a standstill. wsj.com/articles/iran-… -1-
“It is time, in the next few days, for political decisions to end the ViennaTalks,” Enrique Mora, the European Union official who chairs the talks, said on Twitter. -2-
“If the final decisions are not taken in Washington and Tehran now, this agreement is in serious jeopardy,” said a senior Western diplomat on Monday. “By delaying these decisions, a window has been opened for Moscow to wreak havoc.” -3-
Read 4 tweets
laurence norman Profile picture
Mar 6
My understanding now of any #IranTalks deal that emerges is several phases of implementation. There will 1/ be a “confirmation” period. That could mean for Majlis and INARA? Not quite clear. Then 2/ A preparation period. (IAEA get material to review?) 3/ we then get... 1/2
Re-implementation day. And then 4/ we get some period for final steps by Iran on nuclear side as I understand it. Total period a few months and aim to do by summer. BUT I understand discussions remain on precise sequencing steps and length. -2-
All this raises a few questions. When would “verification” be? How many steps to return to compliance will Iran/US have taken by June when we find out if IAEA is shutting or keeping open the safeguards probe? When does IAEA get docs and material from Iran? Do US hold off final-3-
Read 4 tweets
laurence norman Profile picture
Mar 3
#IranTalks: Let's not underestimate significance of @rafaelmgrossi Tehran trip. Let's assume it succeeds, which is definitely an assumption. But if so, it removes probably the toughest of the three remaining issues on the table. Then we can imagine a quick pathway to deal.
-1-
At that point, we have 2 issues essentially. Economic guarantee push from Iran & sanctions scope push. Econ guarantees was worked on for weeks. Iran knows not going to get much more than pretty words. Maybe it gets a few more pretty words. But won't change US legal reality -2-
On the other hand, we know Iran wants unconditional FTO removal from IRGC & I suspect a few other key demands on sanctions. There's a potential (STRESS POTENTIAL) trade-off here. Back off on economic guarantees, US gives a bit more on sanctions. -3-
Read 6 tweets
laurence norman Profile picture
Mar 2
Managed to check in with several sources tonight. This is where I think we stand on #IranTalks and some key points...
1 -- Diplos genuinely don't know which way this is going, Most still think this could come together but confidence levels on this are low. The differences that were there on Monday when Bagheri-Kani returned are still there -- safeguards, sanctions scope, economic guarantees.
2 -- Ukraine/Russia has landed in talks in several ways. A: Russia team more tentative about clearing ideas without checking. B, it hardens the idea that diplomatic window to land this deal is short. C/ Optics of sitting down with Russia on this getting more complicated in DC.
Read 6 tweets

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