Thread by @ThatKHersch

Important but still speculative: Reports on social media indicate Valery #Gerasimov has been injured while leading #Russia's forces in #Ukraine. Gerasimov is Chief of the General Staff of Russian Armed Forces, his country's top military commander. 🧵1/
dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1…

Reports are that #Gerasimov, who was rumored earlier this week to have been sent to #Ukraine to take personal command of #Russia's "special operation," was injured by shrapnel during a Ukrainian attack near Izyum, Kharkiv region. 2/

Reports also indicate that several members of #Gerasimov's staff were killed during the attack in #Ukraine that injured the Russian general, and that he was evacuated by helicopter to Belgorod, #Russia, and then flown on to Moscow by plane. 3/

Most reports regarding #Gerasimov's injuries suggest that, although they were serious enough for him to evacuated for medical and safety reasons, he now can move under his own power and his life is not at risk. 4/

There are an increasing number of sourced reports supporting the news that Russia's Chief of the General Staff, Valery #Gerasimov, was in fact injured in a Ukrainian attack of a Russian headquarters position in Izyum, Ukraine. 5/

The attack that injured Russia's Chief of the General Staff, Valery #Gerasimov, was the same attack that resulted in the previously reported death of Russian General Andrey #Simonov. 6/

The Ukrainian attack that resulted in the death of Russian Gen. #Simonov and injury to Russia's Chief of the General Staff #Gerasimov was on a Russian headquarters position in Izyum. Some reports say that 20 or more senior Russian officers were killed during the attack. 7/

The U.S. equivalent to Gen. Valery #Gerasimov's position of Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces would be Chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, a position currently held by Gen. Mark Milley. In other words, it's a very, VERY important position. 8/

A published report (below) indicates that plane, helicopter, and ground traffic at the airport in Belgorod, Russia earlier today was consistent with a senior Russian officer -- such as Gen. Valery #Gerasimov -- being evacuated from Ukraine to Moscow. 9/
pravda.com.ua/news/2022/05/1…

The New York Times says a "senior Ukrainian official" confirms that Russian Gen. Valery #Gerasimov was in eastern Ukraine to "change the course" of Russia's offensive there, but he was not injured in a Ukrainian attack on a Russian forces there. 10/
nytimes.com/2022/05/01/wor…

The senior Ukrainian official confirmed to the NY Times that Ukraine did target a position in #Izyum, Ukraine, that resulted in the death of over 200 Russian servicemen, including at least one general. But Gen. #Gerasimov, the official said, had left prior to this attack. 11/

Added the NY Times: "Two U.S. officials ... confirmed that General Gerasimov had been in eastern Ukraine for the past couple days, but had no information about the attack on the Russian base. The Russian Defense Ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment." 12/

My take at this point: I don't think we can say for certain right now whether Gen. Gerasimov was, or was not, injured in an attack in eastern Ukraine. Given how things like this have played out in the past, I don't view the information from the NY Times source as definitive. 13/

A valuable thread from @MarkHertling on the implications of Russian Gen. #Gerasimov's visit to the front in eastern Ukraine, regardless of whether or not Gerasimov was injured during his stay: 14/

https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/status/1520887048063930368

Perspectives such as those in this thread from @MrKovalenko are one reason I am hesitant to conclude that Russian Gen. #Gerasimov was not injured in the April 30 Ukrainian attack on a Russian position in eastern Ukraine. 15/

https://twitter.com/MrKovalenko/status/1520757617437683713

This is video of #helicopter activity over #Belgorod, #Russia at 13:00 local time today (May 1). These may be the helicopters mentioned in reports about the transfer of Gen. #Gerasimov in Belgorod to a plane bound for Moscow. 16/

A senior U.S. defense official confirmed today that Gen. Gerasimov was in Ukraine last week for several days. There was no word, as best I can tell, whether U.S. intelligence believes Gerasimov was injured during his visit. 17/

https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1521160493951508481

Some insights from @MassDara into why Russia's Gen. Valery Gerasimov may have decided to visit the front in Ukraine last week. 18/

https://twitter.com/MassDara/status/1521162648099958785