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May 1 • 14 tweets • 5 min read
New thread 🧵 on reports of personnel losses of #Russia in its invasion of #Ukraine. I am updating a thread on general loss claims. Larger update w analysis coming later today. I hit max thread length, so this is a continuation of the previous thread
This is the original thread with details of Russian personnel losses
The UK asserts Russian combat deaths in Ukraine at about 15,000
US believes Russia is increasingly relying on conscripts and suffering troop morale problems
Russian is preparing significant new hospital and morgue capacity as fighting in the Donbas increases in intensity
Russia is recruiting foreign fighters, but their impact on the battlefield is not yet known
Ukraine suggests Russia is having more difficulty than expected in recruiting foreign fighters
africa.businessinsider.com/military-and-d…
Historical context on the rate of loss of Russian officers
There has been speculation that a wider mobilization will be required if Russia is to continue its offensives beyond the near term
The excellent reporting on Russian casualties done by BBC Russia based on public announcement of soldiers' funerals now counts 1,899. This already exceeds the official Russian total of 1,351 announced on March 25.
bbc.com/russian/news-6…
Independent Russian media has reported that it has found reliable notices of 1,744 Russian combat deaths on social media and in other publications
zona.media/article/2022/0…
Here is the primary losses thread
Here is a helpful summary of key estimates of Russian losses. My threads have collected these reports as they were made, but this is a concise summary. From the US Congressional report

crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/…
Claims the Russia is taking steps to hide the number of deaths by transferring soldiers’ bodies at night. I cannot confirm the claim. Consider for yourself

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More from @HelloMrBond

Michael Bond Profile picture
May 2
May 1 Full update to thread 🧵on estimates of #Russia and #Ukraine losses compared to available forces, using RU and UKR claims along with the best available #OSINT observations and estimates
Additional detail so that you can follow values for captures and new equipment deliveries to Ukraine. Excuse the formatting
Summary
OSINT % losses of Russian Committed (Russian total) vs Ukrainian total
Personnel 35.3(7.4) vs 8.3
Armor 47.2(10.1) vs 12
Tanks 48.8(18) vs 12.3
Artillery 14.7(4.2) vs 3.4
Aircraft 7.9(1.9) vs 16
Helicopters 16.3(4.1) vs 8.1
Read 58 tweets
Michael Bond Profile picture
May 2
Thread 🧵consolidating updates from April 25 – May 1 on the large scale unit repositioning and resupply efforts ongoing in Ukraine. This thread will be incorporated into my primary thread on combat losses, which will be linked at the bottom once complete
It may be helpful for context to read the consolidation I put together previously:
April 24

April 17

April 10
Combat Strength
The US most recently assessed Russian combat strength remains at 75% of what was committed at the beginning of the war.


Here is the history of US estimates of Russian combat strength

Read 38 tweets
Michael Bond Profile picture
Apr 28
I was interested in the much talked about #lendlease #bill for #Ukraine that has been approved by the US senate and is scheduled for a vote by the House of Representatives tomorrow.

I was surprised that it is only three pages long. Let’s read it.

rules.house.gov/bill/117/s-3522
This is the version that was ‘engrossed in Senate’ and presented as materials to the House Committee on Rules on April 27.

FYI - I am not a US lawyer, so if any specialists have comments, please add them in the replies.
The main power set out in sec. 2(a)(1) provides that:
“the President may authorize the United States Government to lend or lease defence articles to the Government of Ukraine or governments of Eastern European countries impacted by the Russian Federation’s invasion of Ukraine”
Read 12 tweets
Michael Bond Profile picture
Apr 25
April 24 Full update to thread 🧵 on estimates of #Russia and #Ukraine losses compared to available forces, using RU and UKR claims along with the best available #OSINT observations and estimates
I have decided to include a graphic with a more complete picture of my spreadsheet, as there are now columns for captured equipment and military aid. In order to allow people to follow the process. I’m working out the best way to present this. Please excuse the graphics quality
Summary
OSINT % losses of Russian Committed (Russian total) vs Ukrainian total
Personnel 33.2(7) vs 7.6
Armor 45.5(9.5) vs 11.7
Tanks 45(16.6) vs 14.2
Artillery 14.3(4) vs 3.6
Aircraft 7.3(1.7) vs 15.2
Helicopters 15(3.7) vs 10.9
Read 68 tweets
Michael Bond Profile picture
Apr 24
Thread 🧵consolidating updates from April 18 – April 24 on the large scale unit repositioning and resupply efforts ongoing in Ukraine. This thread will be incorporated into my primary thread on combat losses, which will be linked at the bottom once complete
It may be helpful for context to read the consolidation I put together last week

And two weeks ago
Combat Strength
The US most recently assessed Russian combat strength at 75% of what was committed at the beginning of the war. Here is the history of US estimates of Russian combat strength
Read 40 tweets
Michael Bond Profile picture
Apr 17
April 17 Full update to thread 🧵 on estimates of #Russia and #Ukraine losses compared to available forces, using RU and UKR claims along with the best available #OSINT observations and estimates
Summary
OSINT % losses of Russian Committed (Russian total) vs Ukrainian total
Personnel 32.1(6.8) vs 10.4
Armor 41(8.6) vs 11.4
Tanks 42.2(15.3) vs 14.5
Artillery 13.8(3.9) vs 3.5
Aircraft 6.4(1.5) vs 13.6
Helicopters 14.2(3.5) vs 8.7
Read 59 tweets

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