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Michael Bond Profile picture
Michael Bond
@HelloMrBond
Canadian. Lawyer. Tweets are my own. RT is not an endorsement
7 subscribers
Aug 13, 2023 • 11 tweets • 7 min read
Ukraine released a compilation of USV footage today. Here are the details🧵

4 of attack on the Priazovye
3 of attack on the Ivan Khurs
4 of attack on Vasily Bykov, Sergey Kotov & Sparta IV
1 unknown engagement

Analyzed with @HamWa07 @exit266
Official video source:


Based on the date, latitude & longitude included, we can identify the clips as follows https://t.co/7GJRmGKMbxfb.watch/mnKtrbUyFY/?mi…

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Mar 23, 2023 • 22 tweets • 21 min read
Join us tonight at 9 pm New York time to discuss the latest in open source intelligence

We will chat with @thebaldgeek about flight tracking & data collection

Discussion:
A UA Offensive
War crime charges
Tiktok
Finland
Planes & tanks
China's Influence

twitter.com/i/spaces/1vOxw… Calendar & Events
teamup.com/kscrwzxdtxx284…

Ukraine Weapons Tracker Survey


Oversight of Ukraine Assistance


@bellingcat training session on advanced scraping
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Mar 16, 2023 • 15 tweets • 13 min read
Join us at 9 EST tonight to discuss open source intelligence news

We will be chatting with @naalsio26 about tracking equipment losses and @rosnow about uses of mapping software in OSINT

Open topics
Downing of US drone

Russian Uranium politics

twitter.com/i/spaces/1mnxe… Image Calendar
teamup.com/kscrwzxdtxx284…

Resources
@QuantaMagazine on Facial recognition


Midjouney v5 and potential for misinformation
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Mar 2, 2023 • 13 tweets • 12 min read
Join us tonight to discuss some of the latest open sourced information from Ukraine and around the world

Topics
Latest on Russian Volunteer Corps

A-50 and deep drone strikes

Do you still have TikTok on your phone?

NATO, Hungary and Turkey

Links ⬇️

twitter.com/i/spaces/1ZkJz… Calendar & events

teamup.com/kscrwzxdtxx284…

EUvsDisinfo in conversation with Bill Browder


Co-creational Media
Mar 2, 2023 • 4 tweets • 3 min read
The video below claims to be full footage from an attack on a Russian A-50 aircraft at Machulyshchi air base in Belarus on February 26 posted by the channel BYPOL

Additional details from a recent BYPOL channel thread below

Details from this thread

t.me/bypol/621 ImageImageImageImage
Feb 16, 2023 • 27 tweets • 23 min read
Come and join me tonight to discuss the latest developments in open source investigation and the war in Ukraine

Agenda and references below
(Apologies for the duplicate post, but Twitter posting errors lost the references)

twitter.com/i/spaces/1Yqxo… Agenda
Recent podcasts
Events calendar
OSINT Resources / developments
Good examples
Bad examples

Ukraine
Economics/ Politics /Law
General Situation / Round Table
Forces / Supply
Naval / Aerial
Turkey / Iran / China
Dec 27, 2022 • 9 tweets • 5 min read
I had a look at this letter that claims the Russian Central Bank is preparing regulations that would enable them to seize Russian individuals' bank accounts and "convert" them into war bond.

I am skeptical about it's authenticity. Here is what I found 🧵

The letter I looked at the Presidential Decrees that it claimed as authority for these regulations. Primarily Decree 126. Decree 845 merely extended parts of 126 from end of 2022 to end of 2023.

Decree 126 full text
publication.pravo.gov.ru/Document/View/…

Decree 126 pages 1-4 translated
Dec 1, 2022 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Claims of Russian & Ukrainian losses were made in the last day by Ukrainian advisors Arestovych and Podolyak.

All approximate:

Ukraine: 10-20k KIA, with up to 100k KIA + wounded

Russia: 90-100k KIA, with >200k KIA + wounded

H/T @savaadaak for the find
Details of claims ⬇️ Arestovych starting at 28:35



Precise Ukrainian numbers are secret. Unofficially 🇺🇦 losses are 10-20k KIA

🇺🇦 ~100k wounded + KIA, of which 80k are wounded, but 72k returned to service, as loss is when solder is removed from battle for more than 1 day
Jul 12, 2022 • 11 tweets • 4 min read
A quick thread to draw together some of the sources on the transfer of drones from Iran to Russia for use in Ukraine. I’m bringing these together to more easily follow the narrative

Here was some initial coverage The drones are weapons capable and it is believed that Iran will provide training
Jul 12, 2022 • 4 tweets • 3 min read
The transfer of 10 leopard tanks from Spain to Ukraine is still on the table according to a report today
infodefensa.com/texto-diario/m…

Some background from when the idea was raised a month ago (including unofficial German reluctance) in the retweet

A few interesting details in 🧵 The transfer apparently requires the approval of Germany and the US, which is a new detail

It is not expected to be complete until late this year
Jul 12, 2022 • 38 tweets • 16 min read
July 11 Full update to thread🧵on estimates of #Russia and #Ukraine losses compared to available forces, using RU and UKR claims along with the best available #OSINT observations and estimates For those confused in reading the graphic, hopefully this explanation helps. I also strongly recommend that you open the image and zoom in if you want to read it
Jul 11, 2022 • 91 tweets • 40 min read
Thread🧵consolidating updates from July 4 – July 10 on the large scale unit repositioning and resupply efforts ongoing in Ukraine. This thread will be incorporated into my primary thread on combat losses, which will be linked at the bottom once complete It may be helpful for context to read the consolidations I put together in the last month
July 3

June 26

June 20

June 12

June 5

May 29
Jul 4, 2022 • 33 tweets • 14 min read
July 3 Full update to thread on estimates of #Russia and #Ukraine losses compared to available forces, using RU and UKR claims along with the best available #OSINT observations and estimates
Jul 4, 2022 • 73 tweets • 31 min read
Thread🧵consolidating updates from June 27 – July 3 on the large scale unit repositioning and resupply efforts ongoing in Ukraine. This thread will be incorporated into my primary thread on combat losses, which will be linked at the bottom once complete It may be helpful for context to read the consolidation I put together over the last month:
June 26

June 20

June 12

June 5

May 29

May 22
Jun 28, 2022 • 14 tweets • 7 min read
Russia: Personnel
Personnel is the most complicated loss figure. It required its own thread to discuss. Please read it if you want to see where the numbers below come from
Personnel 1

Personnel 2

Personnel 3
Ratio of KIA to WIA
Two expert observers believe that a ratio of KIA:wounded of 3.5:1 would be reasonable based on comparable data. I often have it recommended to me that 2:1 would be more appropriate, but I will continue to use 3:1
Jun 28, 2022 • 26 tweets • 10 min read
June 26 Full update to thread🧵on estimates of #Russia and #Ukraine losses compared to available forces, using RU and UKR claims along with the best available #OSINT observations and estimates
Jun 27, 2022 • 56 tweets • 20 min read
Thread🧵consolidating updates from June 21 – June 26 on the large scale unit repositioning and resupply efforts ongoing in Ukraine. This thread will be incorporated into my primary thread on combat losses, which will be linked at the bottom once complete It may be helpful for context to read the consolidation I put together previously:
June 20

June 12

June 5

May 29

May 22

May 15
Jun 25, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Lukashenko argues that Belarus must deploy Russian nuclear weapons because of NATO

Putin just said 🇷🇺 will provide 🇧🇾 nuclear Iskanders
interfax.ru/russia/847887

Lukashenko then said Lithuanian import restriction to Kaliningrad is like a declaration of war
ria.ru/20220625/kalin… ImageImage
Jun 22, 2022 • 58 tweets • 24 min read
June 19 Full update to thread🧵on estimates of #Russia and #Ukraine losses compared to available forces, using RU and UKR claims along with the best available #OSINT observations and estimates
Jun 22, 2022 • 65 tweets • 33 min read
Thread🧵consolidating updates from June 13 – June 20 on the large scale unit repositioning and resupply efforts ongoing in Ukraine. This thread will be incorporated into my primary thread on combat losses, which will be linked at the bottom once complete It may be helpful for context to read the consolidation I put together previously:
June 12

June 5

May 29

May 22

May 15

May 8
Jun 20, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
“The minister is announcing the reform of the tax system at a time when the Russian budget is suffering from a sharp drop in tax revenues. So far, the budget has been kept from a collapse in revenues by oil and gas”

Changes could be introduced in the next three years

Details ⬇️ The 🇷🇺 Ministry of Finance expects to end the year with a deficit of 1.665 trillion rubles (~30B USD) instead of a surplus of 1.327T rubles (~$23.9B)

In 2023, the deficit is expected at the level of:
1.591T rubles (~$28.7B)
in 2024 - 1.413T (~$25.5B)
in 2025 - 1.358T (~$24.5B)