Thread 🧵consolidating updates from April 25 – May 1 on the large scale unit repositioning and resupply efforts ongoing in Ukraine. This thread will be incorporated into my primary thread on combat losses, which will be linked at the bottom once complete
It may be helpful for context to read the consolidation I put together previously:
April 24
Of an estimated 120 Battalion Tactical Groups (BTGs) committed by Russia to the invasion, it is believed there are currently 92 BTGs in Ukraine as Russian moves and reconstitutes its forces
Russian Equipment Manufacturing
Further to the tank and weapons factory production delays discussed in previous weeks, it is now expected that replacing lost Russian equipment will take years
Further to discussions about Russian missile inventories, the Ukrainian Deputy Minister of Defense states that Russia has used more than half of its initial reserves
In a longer term threat to Russia’s arms manufacturing industries, the United States is considering an initiative to make it easier for highly educated Russians to relocate to the United States
Captured Equipment
Last week I began to incorporate figures for captured equipment into my larger thread on available forces, using only 1/3 of captures being suitable for short term reuse. Here are more examples of captures use
Repair
There were many updates on repair facilities and practices in past weeks' consolidations. Further to last week’s update that the Czech defense companies will repair Ukrainian heavy equipment, Bulgaria has now said the same
A major conference was held for nations considering providing military support to Ukraine on April 26. Efforts were made to coordinate supplies and deliveries. The US then set up EUCOM’s Ukraine Control Center
One long term goal of the conference, which will now be held monthly, was to help Ukraine start to move away from reliance on Russian and Soviet weapon systems
In addition to this package, the US passed the Ukraine Democracy Defense Lend-Lease Act 2022, which authorizes the US President to lend a potentially huge array of military support to Ukraine
May 1 Full update to thread 🧵on estimates of #Russia and #Ukraine losses compared to available forces, using RU and UKR claims along with the best available #OSINT observations and estimates
Additional detail so that you can follow values for captures and new equipment deliveries to Ukraine. Excuse the formatting
Summary
OSINT % losses of Russian Committed (Russian total) vs Ukrainian total
Personnel 35.3(7.4) vs 8.3
Armor 47.2(10.1) vs 12
Tanks 48.8(18) vs 12.3
Artillery 14.7(4.2) vs 3.4
Aircraft 7.9(1.9) vs 16
Helicopters 16.3(4.1) vs 8.1
New thread 🧵 on reports of personnel losses of #Russia in its invasion of #Ukraine. I am updating a thread on general loss claims. Larger update w analysis coming later today. I hit max thread length, so this is a continuation of the previous thread
This is the original thread with details of Russian personnel losses
I was interested in the much talked about #lendlease#bill for #Ukraine that has been approved by the US senate and is scheduled for a vote by the House of Representatives tomorrow.
I was surprised that it is only three pages long. Let’s read it.
This is the version that was ‘engrossed in Senate’ and presented as materials to the House Committee on Rules on April 27.
FYI - I am not a US lawyer, so if any specialists have comments, please add them in the replies.
The main power set out in sec. 2(a)(1) provides that:
“the President may authorize the United States Government to lend or lease defence articles to the Government of Ukraine or governments of Eastern European countries impacted by the Russian Federation’s invasion of Ukraine”
April 24 Full update to thread 🧵 on estimates of #Russia and #Ukraine losses compared to available forces, using RU and UKR claims along with the best available #OSINT observations and estimates
I have decided to include a graphic with a more complete picture of my spreadsheet, as there are now columns for captured equipment and military aid. In order to allow people to follow the process. I’m working out the best way to present this. Please excuse the graphics quality
Summary
OSINT % losses of Russian Committed (Russian total) vs Ukrainian total
Personnel 33.2(7) vs 7.6
Armor 45.5(9.5) vs 11.7
Tanks 45(16.6) vs 14.2
Artillery 14.3(4) vs 3.6
Aircraft 7.3(1.7) vs 15.2
Helicopters 15(3.7) vs 10.9
Thread 🧵consolidating updates from April 18 – April 24 on the large scale unit repositioning and resupply efforts ongoing in Ukraine. This thread will be incorporated into my primary thread on combat losses, which will be linked at the bottom once complete
It may be helpful for context to read the consolidation I put together last week
Combat Strength
The US most recently assessed Russian combat strength at 75% of what was committed at the beginning of the war. Here is the history of US estimates of Russian combat strength
April 17 Full update to thread 🧵 on estimates of #Russia and #Ukraine losses compared to available forces, using RU and UKR claims along with the best available #OSINT observations and estimates
Summary
OSINT % losses of Russian Committed (Russian total) vs Ukrainian total
Personnel 32.1(6.8) vs 10.4
Armor 41(8.6) vs 11.4
Tanks 42.2(15.3) vs 14.5
Artillery 13.8(3.9) vs 3.5
Aircraft 6.4(1.5) vs 13.6
Helicopters 14.2(3.5) vs 8.7