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May 2 • 38 tweets • 18 min read
Thread 🧵consolidating updates from April 25 – May 1 on the large scale unit repositioning and resupply efforts ongoing in Ukraine. This thread will be incorporated into my primary thread on combat losses, which will be linked at the bottom once complete
It may be helpful for context to read the consolidation I put together previously:
April 24

April 17

April 10
Combat Strength
The US most recently assessed Russian combat strength remains at 75% of what was committed at the beginning of the war.


Here is the history of US estimates of Russian combat strength

Experts agree that Russian combat effectiveness has been significantly reduced
Of an estimated 120 Battalion Tactical Groups (BTGs) committed by Russia to the invasion, it is believed there are currently 92 BTGs in Ukraine as Russian moves and reconstitutes its forces
Forces continue to be reintroduced into Ukraine and relocated depending on Russian combat priorities


It is believed that a further 20 Russian BTGs remain outside Ukraine as they attempt to reform

UK Defense Intelligence suggests Russian units are being redeployed while still depleted



and yet, US defense officials believe Russia does not have everything in place that they need to be fully successful

Unsurprisingly, US defense officials believe Russia is behind its expected schedule



It is difficult to maintain progress on schedule while simultaneously pursuing four different offensives

Russian Equipment Manufacturing
Further to the tank and weapons factory production delays discussed in previous weeks, it is now expected that replacing lost Russian equipment will take years

Further to discussions about Russian missile inventories, the Ukrainian Deputy Minister of Defense states that Russia has used more than half of its initial reserves



With the latest estimate being over 1,900 missiles used to date
Detailed analysis of Russian communications equipment reveals their heavy reliance on parts from foreign countries which have now sanctioned Russia

In a longer term threat to Russia’s arms manufacturing industries, the United States is considering an initiative to make it easier for highly educated Russians to relocate to the United States


Captured Equipment
Last week I began to incorporate figures for captured equipment into my larger thread on available forces, using only 1/3 of captures being suitable for short term reuse. Here are more examples of captures use



More examples of captures being reused





Some captures are difficult to identify because of repair or repaint

Repair
There were many updates on repair facilities and practices in past weeks' consolidations. Further to last week’s update that the Czech defense companies will repair Ukrainian heavy equipment, Bulgaria has now said the same
New Equipment for Ukraine
For an effort to keep an ongoing count of equipment supplied to Ukraine see
oryxspioenkop.com/2022/04/answer…

Here is another helpful collection of the data
ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-aga…
A major conference was held for nations considering providing military support to Ukraine on April 26. Efforts were made to coordinate supplies and deliveries. The US then set up EUCOM’s Ukraine Control Center
One long term goal of the conference, which will now be held monthly, was to help Ukraine start to move away from reliance on Russian and Soviet weapon systems

The conference was quickly followed by a 33 billion spending initiative in the US



Which included the following breakdown of funds


Therefore, this is projected cumulative US military aid to Ukraine

In addition to this package, the US passed the Ukraine Democracy Defense Lend-Lease Act 2022, which authorizes the US President to lend a potentially huge array of military support to Ukraine

Ukrainian President Zelensky had a typically eloquent response to the passage of the lend lease bill by Congress

There has been a considerable increase in supply flights destined for Ukraine



This includes Canada flights ferrying equipment from multiple nations

and Spanish transfer of equipment by ship



What was on the Spanish ship



Spain also promised IMVs

The single most significant equipment delivery revealed this week was Polish supply of approximately 230 tanks

New equipment supplies from the UK were confirmed, including the Stormer



and the Wolfhound

In Germany a request was made to export leopard tanks



Australian Bushmasters are now in use in Ukraine



US M777 artillery is in transit

M113 were prepared for shipment from the US



and Denmark



Norwegian artillery was also pledged

The US pledged supply of non-standard ammunition



However, Ukraine still requests additional small arms supplies

The UK announced future delivery of significant numbers of Brimstone missiles


Polish made Warmate drones are already in action

The US said it is not considering providing Patriot or THAAD air defense systems at this time



and US production capacity of Stinger missiles faces challenges



In the face of this increasing supply of military aid to Ukraine, Russia restated its objections to the US



Russia said it may target weapons shipments

Russia began to focus its missile strikes in Ukraine on rail infrastructure and bridges in an attempt to reduce weapon’s shipments



Russian attacks also targeted Ukrainian electrical systems in an effort to prevent resupply

Russia also targeted missile production facilities, such as the Artem plant



Training of Ukrainian personnel
There were many updates on training this week. The first 50 Ukrainians finished training on US artillery systems


Training on US radars was announced

US training is taking place in multiple locations



No US training is taking place in Ukraine

Crash courses on javelin use come from western veteran volunteers



No training has begun on new systems such as the Phoenix Ghost drone

The pace of training is driven by the Ukrainians

Here is the primary losses thread

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More from @HelloMrBond

Michael Bond Profile picture
May 2
May 1 Full update to thread 🧵on estimates of #Russia and #Ukraine losses compared to available forces, using RU and UKR claims along with the best available #OSINT observations and estimates
Additional detail so that you can follow values for captures and new equipment deliveries to Ukraine. Excuse the formatting
Summary
OSINT % losses of Russian Committed (Russian total) vs Ukrainian total
Personnel 35.3(7.4) vs 8.3
Armor 47.2(10.1) vs 12
Tanks 48.8(18) vs 12.3
Artillery 14.7(4.2) vs 3.4
Aircraft 7.9(1.9) vs 16
Helicopters 16.3(4.1) vs 8.1
Read 58 tweets
Michael Bond Profile picture
May 1
New thread 🧵 on reports of personnel losses of #Russia in its invasion of #Ukraine. I am updating a thread on general loss claims. Larger update w analysis coming later today. I hit max thread length, so this is a continuation of the previous thread
This is the original thread with details of Russian personnel losses
The UK asserts Russian combat deaths in Ukraine at about 15,000
Read 14 tweets
Michael Bond Profile picture
Apr 28
I was interested in the much talked about #lendlease #bill for #Ukraine that has been approved by the US senate and is scheduled for a vote by the House of Representatives tomorrow.

I was surprised that it is only three pages long. Let’s read it.

rules.house.gov/bill/117/s-3522
This is the version that was ‘engrossed in Senate’ and presented as materials to the House Committee on Rules on April 27.

FYI - I am not a US lawyer, so if any specialists have comments, please add them in the replies.
The main power set out in sec. 2(a)(1) provides that:
“the President may authorize the United States Government to lend or lease defence articles to the Government of Ukraine or governments of Eastern European countries impacted by the Russian Federation’s invasion of Ukraine”
Read 12 tweets
Michael Bond Profile picture
Apr 25
April 24 Full update to thread 🧵 on estimates of #Russia and #Ukraine losses compared to available forces, using RU and UKR claims along with the best available #OSINT observations and estimates
I have decided to include a graphic with a more complete picture of my spreadsheet, as there are now columns for captured equipment and military aid. In order to allow people to follow the process. I’m working out the best way to present this. Please excuse the graphics quality
Summary
OSINT % losses of Russian Committed (Russian total) vs Ukrainian total
Personnel 33.2(7) vs 7.6
Armor 45.5(9.5) vs 11.7
Tanks 45(16.6) vs 14.2
Artillery 14.3(4) vs 3.6
Aircraft 7.3(1.7) vs 15.2
Helicopters 15(3.7) vs 10.9
Read 68 tweets
Michael Bond Profile picture
Apr 24
Thread 🧵consolidating updates from April 18 – April 24 on the large scale unit repositioning and resupply efforts ongoing in Ukraine. This thread will be incorporated into my primary thread on combat losses, which will be linked at the bottom once complete
It may be helpful for context to read the consolidation I put together last week

And two weeks ago
Combat Strength
The US most recently assessed Russian combat strength at 75% of what was committed at the beginning of the war. Here is the history of US estimates of Russian combat strength
Read 40 tweets
Michael Bond Profile picture
Apr 17
April 17 Full update to thread 🧵 on estimates of #Russia and #Ukraine losses compared to available forces, using RU and UKR claims along with the best available #OSINT observations and estimates
Summary
OSINT % losses of Russian Committed (Russian total) vs Ukrainian total
Personnel 32.1(6.8) vs 10.4
Armor 41(8.6) vs 11.4
Tanks 42.2(15.3) vs 14.5
Artillery 13.8(3.9) vs 3.5
Aircraft 6.4(1.5) vs 13.6
Helicopters 14.2(3.5) vs 8.7
Read 59 tweets

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