[Thread] Gujarat Elections 2022: A lot of questions coming in about AAP and its potential impact in Gujarat. I would be shocked if this time AAP went beyond a few % and single digit seats this time, because it doesnt have a base and the votes it got were PAAS votes in Surat (1/n)
However, it cannot be ignored. Right now, chances are it will take votes mostly from Congress and very few from BJP in a few pockets, this split will ensure BJP gets a higher number of seats than last time, if elections were to be held today. Infact it can cross 110 easily. (2/n)
In the longer run, this poses a challenge because right now AAP is targeting urban and some rural seats. For years now, Congress has been useless in urban seats. And there is some anti incumbency, which is why BJP has replaced candidates, but the 50/50 seats are vulnerable (3/n)
Until now, Kejriwal had done all sorts of appearances with LW activists which will never work in Gujarat. And if is seen close to folks like Medha Patkar, Hardik Patel and Mevani, AAP will be wiped out because they do not work beyond a few pockets in Gujarat. (4/n)
This is the first time in Gujarat's politics after three decades that someone is trying to be a third player. I don't count Keshubhai in 2012, as that was not even a serious challenge and everyone knew it was a one time thing. This also targets the untargeted urban seats (5/n)
It won't work this year, as their goal is probably 10% vote share, even that looks unlikely. But with the Congress committing hara kiri and ignoring the cities in Gujarat, avenues have opened up. Kejriwal has seen it and hence he has been singing a different tune lately. (6/n)
I dont think Kejriwal's politics has changed and it is still seeped in LW activism, but he realizes Gujarat wont be won like that and hence the different tone. This is a troubling trend, but this election will throw up more permutations closer to Dec 2022. (7/7) #GujaratElections
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