Doug Lewin Profile picture
May 2 5 tweets 4 min read
This Saturday, ERCOT expects 69.3GW of demand, an insane amount for a weekend in early May.

Temps likely to be ~92-93 in DFW and Houston, 95 in Austin, 100 in Midland & 104 (!) in Laredo. These would likely be records (or near records) for May 7.
#txlege #txenergy #txwx 1/5
I believe the previous record demand in May is ~67GW & all time summer peak is 74.8GW. That we would reach that much demand on a Saturday in May is extraordinary. Usually demand is much lower on the weekends. Extreme weather from #climatechange is already happening.
#txlege 2/5
#ERCOT expects 20GW of thermal plants to be offline. Wind expected to be @ 12GW & solar's likely to break a record ~9GW. I expect every battery on the grid will be ready for peak @ 5pm. Still, there will likely be tight conditions. Buckle up.
#txlege #energytwitter 3/5
I'd imagine #ERCOT is trying to order thermal (mostly gas & coal) plants off for maintenance back online. W/out some coming back, we could be short. One of the main avenues for #demandresponse is only around for June-September leaving us exposed in May. #txlege #txclimate 4/5
One thing I'm watching for as much as anything is communication.

Will @ERCOT_ISO and the @PUCTX give us a heads up?

Will state or local government advertise cooling centers for folks struggling to stay cool in inefficient homes or who can't afford to stay cool?
#txlege 5/5

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Doug Lewin

Doug Lewin Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @douglewinenergy

Feb 24
Ex-@PUCTX Chair DeAnn Walker is testifying in Brazos Electric Co-op's bankruptcy proceeding. They just took a break after the the Judge (I think) basically warned Walker to be very careful about what she says next.

They start again at 10:10.
#txlege

txs.uscourts.gov/content/chief-…
I say "I think" because I couldn't tell who was talking but clearly there was an insuation that either PUCT Chair Walker was perjuring herself or admitting to breaking a law or something equally bad...
#txenergy #energytwitter #txlege
Might have been the Plaintiff's Attorney and not the Judge with the warning...
Read 33 tweets
Feb 23
First off, I do NOT expect outages this evening. I could be wrong but despite the graph below, w/ temps in the 40s in Houston, there shouldn't be any issues tonight.

But this highlights why storage and dispatchable demand response are needed in ERCOT right now.
#txlege
1/🧵
Demand is high bc inefficient heat is driving the peak higher than expected. Because we have very little committed, paid residential #demandresponse, and most of that peak is residential demand, there's little ERCOT can do about it. This is a policy failure. #txenergy
2/
Note that the mismatch between supply and demand is not large, and doesn't last very long. If we had more storage and more dispatchable #demandresponse, this wouldn't be an issue at all.

@maggie_glynn1 did a great job explaining this:
#energytwitter 3/
kxan.com/state-of-texas…
Read 10 tweets
Jan 27
@PUCTX meeting starting now. Agenda and livestream at link below. As usual, I'll tweet some updates throughout the meeting, particularly on items related to winter storm and/or market redesign.
#txlege #txenergy #energytwitter
texasadmin.com/tx/puct/open_m…
First agenda item they take up is #46034, the Southern Cross project to connect 2GW of generation from Texas to the Eastern Interconnect (near MS/AL border). This project is a long time in the making.
Cmsr Glotfelty notes that in the past commissioners didn't choose to move forward. He says "we ought to move forward to this." He filed a memo linked below.
interchange.puc.texas.gov/Documents/4630…
Read 27 tweets
Jan 27
Interesting that ERCOT CEO Brad Jones, when asked if he can guarantee there will be no outages, says something like: I promise we have done everything possible to ensure the lights will stay on.

Hmmm, not quite the same thing...
#txlege #txenergy
@LWVTexas, hosting the ERCOT town hall asks about Jones' concerns with gas supply. He says he "is concerned" about weatherization and is specifically concerned about the 20-25% drop in gas supply on Jan. 2 during a recent cold snap.
ERCOT's Jones: "We don't get enough information about what's going on in the gas system... that lack of transparency is something we have to resolve." Wants to set up a gas desk in ERCOT ops room to advise about gas limitations. Not in place yet.
#txlege #txenergy #energytwitter
Read 25 tweets
Jan 13
PUC meets at 9:30CT. Threre will likely be a discussion w/ERCOT about their letter on implementation of market design changes submitted Monday. More on content of the letter in @colinmeehan thread linked below.
#txlege #txenergy 1/3
adminmonitor.com/tx/puct/open_m…
The ERCOT letter to the PUC has a timeline & costs (the last page of the filing), and provides some clear guidance about what's possible (e.g., they can't do everything in the PUC memo). I'll provide some updates throughout the meeting.
interchange.puc.texas.gov/Documents/5237…
#energytwitter 2/3
Tmrw at 9:30 the Electricity Supply Chain Mapping Cmte meets in public for the 1st time. Gas infrastructure on the map will have to weatherize; the rest won't, per SB3. This important report isn't due till Sept but will likely be done by April. 3/3 #txlege
adminmonitor.com/tx/puct/public…
Read 17 tweets
Jan 2
Grid update: Still extremely low chance of outages. This front is not extreme & won't bring us anywhere close to the 77GW of demand in Feb.

BUT there is a warning sign for future extreme cold: there are 10+GW of thermal plants offline right now.
1/🧵 #txlege #energytwitter
A little more info on that. You can see the amount of outages at the link below. It's updated every hour. (You have to add columns C-F to get total thermal outages).

It adds up to 10,114MW (or 10.1GW) of nuke/gas/coal plants offline right now. 2/

ercot.com/mp/data-produc…
ERCOT forecasters continue to struggle w/ demand on winter mornings. Idk why they continue to miss but ERCOT needs to address this. My guess is that they're undercounting electric heat. Note: FERC & NERC specifically said ERCOT needs to improve this. 3/
Read 7 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(