Predicting the outcome of the Assembly #Election in N.Ireland is straightforward enough if you know how.
There are a handful of key factors to bear in mind.
Nail all of these & you’ll be way ahead of the game come results day 🤓
#AE22 🏖️
1/8
There are a handful of key factors to bear in mind.
Nail all of these & you’ll be way ahead of the game come results day 🤓
#AE22 🏖️
1/8
#1: the Issues 📝
What concerns are raised on the door steps? On the airwaves? Social media? Street demos?
What real life problems are addressed in the manifestos?
What policies are dissected in political debate?
Find the common thread across these & ... oh 😶
Moving on💨
2/8
What concerns are raised on the door steps? On the airwaves? Social media? Street demos?
What real life problems are addressed in the manifestos?
What policies are dissected in political debate?
Find the common thread across these & ... oh 😶
Moving on💨
2/8
#2: the Parties🥳
What do the polls say [& do they tally]?
How trusted are their leaders, & how secure are they?
How did they perform in the last mandate?
Have they made major blunders?
Are they running too many or too few candidates?
How transfer-friendly are they, to whom?
3/8
What do the polls say [& do they tally]?
How trusted are their leaders, & how secure are they?
How did they perform in the last mandate?
Have they made major blunders?
Are they running too many or too few candidates?
How transfer-friendly are they, to whom?
3/8
#3: the Constituencies🏘️
What are the demographics?
How's the local council performing?
What is the state of the local party machine & its relationship to the central one?
Are there local hot topics?
Were there surprises/shifts last election (local, Westminster, Assembly)..?
4/8
What are the demographics?
How's the local council performing?
What is the state of the local party machine & its relationship to the central one?
Are there local hot topics?
Were there surprises/shifts last election (local, Westminster, Assembly)..?
4/8
#4: the Candidates🦸
Are they incumbents, co-opted or refreshingly new? What is their (social) media profile?
Are they local?
How have they canvassed?
Are they well-known & well-liked?
Who's their running mate?
Is there a heavyweight Independent? Whose votes might (s)he take?
5/8
Are they incumbents, co-opted or refreshingly new? What is their (social) media profile?
Are they local?
How have they canvassed?
Are they well-known & well-liked?
Who's their running mate?
Is there a heavyweight Independent? Whose votes might (s)he take?
5/8
#5 the Voters💪
What is their ‘mood’ – hopeful or angry or anxious or despondent?
Has their door been knocked on?
Who do they want to encourage/teach a lesson to?
Will they vote for a party they don't like to stymie the party they loathe?
Will they turn out to vote at all..?
6/8
What is their ‘mood’ – hopeful or angry or anxious or despondent?
Has their door been knocked on?
Who do they want to encourage/teach a lesson to?
Will they vote for a party they don't like to stymie the party they loathe?
Will they turn out to vote at all..?
6/8
#6 the PR-STV system🗳️
Who'll easily meet the quota, where will their surplus go?
Who'll be eliminated early on, where will their transfers go?
Who'll stay in the race long enough to benefit from transfers?
How canny was each party’s campaign management in each constituency?
7/8
Who'll easily meet the quota, where will their surplus go?
Who'll be eliminated early on, where will their transfers go?
Who'll stay in the race long enough to benefit from transfers?
How canny was each party’s campaign management in each constituency?
7/8
You've made it to the end!
Now just add a dollop of calculation, whim & lucky guesswork to the answers above.
Look at the writhing mess of complexity & feel a bit queasy.
So instead predict a green v. orange stalemate-
the go-to distraction as the real-world problems grow.
8/8
Now just add a dollop of calculation, whim & lucky guesswork to the answers above.
Look at the writhing mess of complexity & feel a bit queasy.
So instead predict a green v. orange stalemate-
the go-to distraction as the real-world problems grow.
8/8
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