1/11 It’s huge! Declassified archives reveal new facts on 🇩🇪 #Ostpolitik. It shows that the enlargement of NATO and independence of Ukra🇺🇦 not in interests of Germany in 1991. Curious to read this in the context of the war and 🇩🇪's dependence on Russia.
2/11 In 1991, German chancellor Helmut Kohl found himself faced with the three Baltic republics pushing for independence and seeking to leave the Soviet Union. He felt they were on the "wrong path”. Kohl, of course, had rapidly moved ahead with Germany’s reunification.
3/11 Kohl felt that a dissolution of the Soviet Union would be a "catastrophe" and anyone pushing for such a result was an "ass." He repeatedly sought to drum up momentum in the West against independence for Ukraine and the Baltic states.
4/11 Kohl felt that Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania should be more patient about their freedom – and should wait around another 10 years. And even then, Kohl felt the three countries should be neutral ("Finnish status"), and not become members of NATO or the European Community.
5/11 Kohl and his foreign minister Genscher believed that if the Baltic states left the Soviet Union, Ukraine would then follow, after which the entire Soviet Union would collapse, and Gorbachev would fall as well.
6/11 When over 90 percent of Ukrainian voters cast their ballots in favor of independence in a referendum, though, both Kohl and Genscher changed course. Germany was the first EC member state to recognized Ukraine’s independence.
Hypocrisy of German politics is nothing new.
7/11 In November 1991 (!), Kohl offered Yeltsin to "exert influence on the Ukrainian leadership" to join a confederation with Russia and other former Soviet republics. German diplomats felt that Kyiv was demonstrating a "tendency toward authoritarian-nationalist excesses."
8/11 Genscher on Poland, Hungary and Romania to the NATO: The countries certainly have the right to join the Western alliance, but the focus should be on ensuring "that they don’t exercise this right." (1991)
Now is the same focus concerning Ukraine and Georgia, right?
9/11 For a time, the Germans were even in favor of NATO issuing an official declaration that it'd not expand eastward. But during the visit to Washington in May 1991, Genscher was told that an expansion "cannot be excluded in the future”. Then he stepped back.
10/11 Western allies tended to count on the Germans' analysis of the situation. French President Mitterrand complained about the Baltics, saying "you can’t risk everything you have gained (with Moscow – eds.) just to help countries that haven’t existed on their own in 400 years."
11/11 Recently, the chair of the Foreign Affairs Committee in the German parliament @MiRo_SPD (SPD) spoke in favor of examininig failures of German Ostpolitik. He believes that Germany "de facto denied the sovereignty" of its neighboring countries.
Please, do it!
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I see my point about Shulman’s interview needs more explanation. It is not only about Shulman, or one interview, or 2 minutes “out or context”. It is the whole discourse of the Russian opposition.
They can oppose war now after 24.02, even after invasion of Donbas, but it does not mean they are willing to accept status quo as for 2014, before the annexation of Crimea. We have enough examples. Here is Navalny who strives to "normalize“ the annexation: crimea.suspilne.media/en/news/942
For them, it is okay to leave Crimea out of discussion when talking about the resolution. For Russia, it is a symbol of the city that was conquered "even without any shot" and backed by the fake referendum.
Any talks with Russians are possible only after their acceptance of responsibility for war. For me, Crimea and Donbas is a litmus test. If Russians do not agree that the territories should be back to Ukraine asap and the contribution should be paid, there is no grounds for talks.
The only closest attempt to raise the issue of collective responsibility in Russian society was this article that was largely criticised both by Putin’s regime and by liberal opposition. They are now willing to see their guilt in what is happening.
The only way to avoid misinterpretation of someone’s opinion is to make it clear. Public figures who made their social capital on YouTube or by any other public tools, can not avoid clarifying their position. Especially, when it comes to the war crimes committed by their country.
Poland is welcoming country for Ukrainians, but not for pregnant women. While Russia uses largely rape as a weapon, Polish laws forbid abortion. Reading this makes me literally trembling.
Rape is an exception case, but it requires prosecutor’s proof of the crime. It rarely happens — In 2018, only one abortion on this ground was carried out in Poland, and 3 cases in 2019.
The traumatized refugees (90% of them women and kids) are met by anti-abortion campaigners. One motto says: “I feel that the greatest destroyer of peace today is abortion.”
Another shocking numbers. 1,4 mln people are living without running water in 🇺🇦 regions mostly affected by war. Additional 4,6 min people across Ukraine do not have access to safe water due to the water network and power cuts. Source: @unicef /1
Numerous water pipes have been damaged and can not be repaired because of constant shelling. Reportedly some were shot dead while standing in line for water (and other humanitarian aid). /2
People melt water out of snow, get raining water, poor it from the batteries and boilers, get it from rivers or scoop from the puddles. This water is ecologically dangerous and could cause diseases, but it could save their life from the dehydration. /3
About 500 000 of Ukrainians were deported to Russia for only 2 months. Some of them are on their way to labour camps like Gulag. Russians want to use them to build new cities in Siberia. Their passports taken away. Some of people managed to escape to the 3rd countries. /1
Among deported — 121 000 children. They are to be illigally adopted by Russian families. Russia want them to forget their origins, family, language. Either in schools or in Russians‘ homes they will be subjected to Russian propaganda. /2
I think it is the best answer why Ukraine can not fail this war. It would mean not peace, but much bigger numbers without the world knowing about it. /3
[thread] 1/ #Russia uses in #Ukraine the same strategy as it used in #Syria — attacking fleeing civilians, controlling humanitarian corridors, bombing hospitals and spreading disinformation. Useful insights from @TheSyriaCmpgn