Thread by @Operation_Ryan

A 🧵 on the upcoming May 9 Victory Day
 
There seems to be a widely held sense that one way or the other, the Ukraine war will enter a new phase starting May 9, the anniversary of the Soviet defeat of Nazi Germany in WW II.

2/10 Rumors and speculation abound, nobody is quite sure what the next phase of the conflict will look like. The only certainty is that May 9 will create not only an opportunity, but even a requirement for Putin to make dramatic announcements about the war.

3/10 There two common notions about which way Putin will go.
1), Putin needs to announce a big victory and present operational successes to the 🇷🇺 public. The problem is failure to take Kyiv & northern 🇺🇦 and is now stalled in Donbass.

https://twitter.com/JominiW/status/1522989571776126977

4/10 2) Instead of announcing victory, Putin will use the opportunity to escalate. It’s fairly clear that, under current conditions, the Russian Army doesn’t have enough juice to put an end to the fighting anytime soon.

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1522991272897699841

5/10 The military is plagued by equipment, and above all, manpower problems. There are some clear risks with mobilization as well as real difficulties in turning mass mobilization into combat power on a useful timescale.

https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1522437087810699266

6/10 One approach to May 9 may be for Putin to use these problems to solve each other.
In this scenario, Putin would announce victory (or relatively near-term victory conditions like a #Kherson referendum.

https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1521135779367563264

7/10 These could include formal annexation of the LPR and DPR, recognition of #Transnistria, or other strategic/political maneuvers (e.g. Moldova). In essence, Putin stakes out current (or near current) holdings as his victory objectives.

https://twitter.com/CrisLeeMaza/status/1522574593705320448

8/10 But with this announcement, Putin would announce a condition: further fighting would be considered a general act of war (whatever that means) and trigger full military wartime mobilization of 🇷🇺. Ofc Zelenskyy cannot accept a result in which 🇺🇦 gives up territory.

9/10 Thus, 🇺🇦 would be compelled to continue fighting, thereby letting 🇷🇺 “take the gloves off” and "really" defend itself against #NATO and #US. B/c 🇷🇺 has been looking for ways to switch from being the “bad guy” attacker to the “good guy” defending underdog.

10/10
By declaring an untenable peace, Russia can to turn into defender while simultaneously escalating. This sort of "escalation through redefinition" gives Putin the best of both worlds, escalation and a clear way to blame the West.
End 🧵

Not to mention the effects of possible sabotage or terrorist activity on May 9:

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1522633206436085763