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May 9 • 43 tweets • 18 min read
Thread🧵consolidating updates from May 2 – May 8 on the large scale unit repositioning and resupply efforts ongoing in Ukraine. This thread will be incorporated into my primary thread on combat losses, which will be linked at the bottom once complete
It may be helpful for context to read the consolidations that I put together previously:
May 1

April 24

April 17

April 10
Combat Strength
The US most recently (May 2) assessed Russian combat strength remains at 75% of what was committed at the beginning of the war.


Here is the history of US estimates of Russian combat strength

Of an estimated 120 Battalion Tactical Groups (BTGs) committed by Russia to the invasion, it is believed there are currently 93 BTGs in Ukraine as Russian moves and reconstitutes its forces
It is believed that a further 20 Russian BTGs remain outside Ukraine as they attempt to reform

There are signs that BTGs continue to be under strength. Some motorized rifle units are reported to rely on naval infantry instead

The UK says 65% of Russian ground forces are committed. This has the interesting implication that Russia has a capability equivalent to 184 total BTGs



Here is a rough projection of the force ratios in the Donbas

The UK says that Russian losses to date will have a “lasting impact”


Some well connected Russian observers are getting nervous about progress in Donbas

Russian Equipment Manufacturing
Amid an unusually large number of fires that have been occurring within Russia, including at industrial sites, notable were fires at a munitions plant in Perm and a research facility in Tver


2125 missiles have been launched into Ukraine, according to a US defense official



Experts note that while precise inventories are unknown, the Russians must be approaching their reserve limits

A logistical note is that with the seizure of nearly the entirety of the Azov Sea, Russia has begun to resupply with small ships

Captured Equipment
In recent weeks I have been incorporating figures for captured equipment into my larger thread on available forces using a conservative estimate of only 1/3 of captures being suitable for short term reuse.
We can see that a fair rate of reuse is occurring from one unit where 9 tank captures have been put back into service

Here are examples of captures being used








There have been efforts to track equipment loss accounting for capture over time. Note that this version includes all captures as additions to the opponent’s forces
Repair
There were many updates on repair facilities and practices in past weeks’ consolidations. No significant news further to last week’s update that the Czech and Bulgarian Defence Ministries agreeing to repair Ukrainian heavy equipment
New Equipment for Ukraine
For an effort to keep an ongoing count of equipment supplied to Ukraine see
oryxspioenkop.com/2022/04/answer…

Here is another helpful collection of the data
ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-aga…
There has continued to be a high rate of delivery of military aid to Ukraine



The daily lists of arrivals at the airport in Rzeszow, Poland is impressive

Additional details are available in this US Congressional report


This is the cumulative approved US military aid to Ukraine
This graphic sets out some of the US military aid to Ukraine so far
Approved US funding for military aid has nearly been entirely drawn down, as the $33 billion bill that includes a portion for further military aid, was submitted over a week ago but has not yet been approved by Congress.
However, the Ukraine Democracy Defence Lend-Lease Act 2022, is due to be signed by President Biden on May 9.



Newly announced US aid this week includes more artillery shells and counter battery radars



US M777 artillery systems are nearly all delivered to Ukraine and there are several videos of them in use



US deliveries of helicopters are ongoing, with 5 delivered so far


as are deliveries of new US Phoenix Ghost drone systems with 1/5 of 121
Questions have been raised about how long the US can continue supplying some missile systems at this rate



and the US has said that it has no intention to provide HIMARS systems
The UK made an announcement of new military aid. The new pledge almost doubles Britain's previous spending commitments on Ukraine



The UK announced a new donation of light armoured vehicles


and heavy lift drones
UK supplied Brimstone missiles were seen for the first time in Ukraine


French and Danish Mistral missiles appeared to be in use



Polish tanks appeared to be in use

Portugal announced that it would be sending light armoured vehicles and artillery
Germany is considering sending advanced counter battery radar
After a diplomatic dispute, it was rumoured that Israel may consider military aid, or permit the export of its products from third countries to Ukraine, but this was still uncertain
Russia’s Shoigu said that Russia may target weapons shipments



and this strategy was more apparent this week
attacks continued against military manufacturing centers


railways
electrical systems


bridges

However, the density of Ukrainian rail networks allow some rerouting


and the rate of rail and bridge repair has been rapid
US defense officials say that Ukraine has an ability to manufacture some missiles and munitions


and that may strikes have not disrupted weapons deliveries
Training of Ukrainian personnel
US training has continued on a number of weapons systems
Training has begun on the Phoenix Ghost drones
The Canadian Armed Forces are also providing artillery training
Here is the main losses thread

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More from @HelloMrBond

Michael Bond Profile picture
May 9
May 8 Full update to thread 🧵 on estimates of #Russia and #Ukraine losses compared to available forces, using RU and UKR claims along with the best available #OSINT observations and estimates
Here is the more detailed table so that you can see the values for captures and newly delivered equipment
Summary
OSINT % losses of Russian Committed (Russian total) vs Ukrainian total
Personnel 37.4(7.9) vs 8.9
Armor 49.8(10.7) vs 12.4
Tanks 51.8(19.1) vs 13.1
Artillery 14.9(4.2) vs 3.5
Aircraft 7.9(1.9) vs 16
Helicopters 17.1(4.3) vs 8.1
Read 63 tweets
Michael Bond Profile picture
May 8
A reported Russian mobilization notice. Note the caveats in the thread, including that the date has apparently been changed from 2021 to 2022 for unknown reasons. I will try to confirm whether the law referred to could include this being a conscript from the normal April round
Further reservations about this claimed mobilization notice

A second claimed mobilization notice
Read 4 tweets
Michael Bond Profile picture
May 6
I am waiting for confirmation of the original source, but 3.8M departures from Russia in the first three months of 2022 vs 5 million total in one year (2020-2021). We don’t know how many might have returned. 2020 may have been a low rate due to the pandemic. Still interesting
To be clear, I have used my interpretation of the statement on past data. The translation was “For the period from 2000-2021, according to the data of Such Cases, about 5 million people left the Russian Federation”.

I believe the poster intended 2020-2021 and not 2000-2021
For contrast, departures for central Asian countries don’t look as elevated if you go back to pre-pandemic 2019
Read 4 tweets
Michael Bond Profile picture
May 2
May 1 Full update to thread 🧵on estimates of #Russia and #Ukraine losses compared to available forces, using RU and UKR claims along with the best available #OSINT observations and estimates
Additional detail so that you can follow values for captures and new equipment deliveries to Ukraine. Excuse the formatting
Summary
OSINT % losses of Russian Committed (Russian total) vs Ukrainian total
Personnel 35.3(7.4) vs 8.3
Armor 47.2(10.1) vs 12
Tanks 48.8(18) vs 12.3
Artillery 14.7(4.2) vs 3.4
Aircraft 7.9(1.9) vs 16
Helicopters 16.3(4.1) vs 8.1
Read 58 tweets
Michael Bond Profile picture
May 2
Thread 🧵consolidating updates from April 25 – May 1 on the large scale unit repositioning and resupply efforts ongoing in Ukraine. This thread will be incorporated into my primary thread on combat losses, which will be linked at the bottom once complete
It may be helpful for context to read the consolidation I put together previously:
April 24

April 17

April 10
Combat Strength
The US most recently assessed Russian combat strength remains at 75% of what was committed at the beginning of the war.


Here is the history of US estimates of Russian combat strength

Read 38 tweets
Michael Bond Profile picture
May 1
New thread 🧵 on reports of personnel losses of #Russia in its invasion of #Ukraine. I am updating a thread on general loss claims. Larger update w analysis coming later today. I hit max thread length, so this is a continuation of the previous thread
This is the original thread with details of Russian personnel losses
The UK asserts Russian combat deaths in Ukraine at about 15,000
Read 14 tweets

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