Thread by @OddAlerts

🗣️ How will Steven Gerrard's team talk go tonight? #AVLLIV

Here are my thoughts and what I'm betting on tonight. MEGA-thread 🧵

🔴 Liverpool is massive favourites, obviously. There is little to suggest that Gerrard will finally beat one of the top 6 teams. Since he took over, he has picked up just 1 point from a possible 18 against top 6 opponents. The single point came against Manchester United.

⬆️ Aston Villa's victories have been against teams in and around them, and that was crucial in order to stay up. That said, this is the best form Villa has shown since early March. After no wins in 5 games, they are now unbeaten in the last 3 games.

🏟️ Given the "Gerrard" effect of this game, I think the first 15-20 minutes will be crucial for Liverpool. They will need to make sure they don't succumb to the crowd or the occasion, the Villa fans will be keen to create a difficult atmosphere for Klopp's players.

⚽ Aston Villa has failed to score in just 3/16 home games this season, and with little to lose in this fixture, we could be in for some goals. They have also kept just 2 clean sheets at home since December 1st (vs Norwich and Southampton).

👕 Now, let's look at some player stats, shall we? Everyone loves a John McGinn card and between the two teams, no player has committed more fouls this season (50). Regardless of the three Liverpool have in the middle, Villa will have a tough time. Fouls expected.

🔴 Interestingly, the players that commit the most fouls for Liverpool are Jota (45) and Mane (37). This is down to the intense press from #LFC that often causes mistakes from defenders. Mistakes can also equate to cards in the same pattern of play.

🥅 Shots on Target /90
⏲️ 6+ Games Played

🇧🇪 Origi (3.81) 🤯
🇪🇬 Salah (1.88)
🇨🇴 Diaz (1.45)
🇵🇹 Jota (1.37)
🇸🇳 Mane (1.19)
🇧🇷 Coutinho (1.07)
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Watkins (1)

I would wait until the teams come out for this market. Diaz could start.

✨ No surprise here, but Thiago is in a league of his own for passes /90 minutes (86.55). The next best is van Dijk (78.03). Trent comes in at 5th, with 67.69 and I like the value that adds to my bet tonight. I think Liverpool will try to take the sting out of this game. Passes.

Here's what I'm on for tonight. I was first tempted to go for goals, but in reality, there's a very good chance that Liverpool go to Villa Park and simply get the job done as they did at Newcastle.

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