Alberto Alemanno Profile picture
May 10 12 tweets 11 min read
Did the Conference on the Future of Europe succeed?

It depends very much on how you measure success.

For me it worked beyond expectations.

Here’s why 🧵 #CoFoE #FutureOfEurope
1 If you belong to those who expected #CoFoE to magically deliver a re-opening of the Treaty, you may be disappointed. No majority exists to endorse EP’s demand. That might never materialize. Wait for June #EUCO but it might not be the point project-syndicate.org/commentary/con…
2 If instead you valued #CoFoE as an open-ended (not outcome-bound) process, you may be satisfied. Not only a permanent mechanism of citizen deliberation in EU decision-making is foreseen, but that can be done without treaty change. But there’s more.

euronews.com/2022/01/20/fra…
3 As predicted, #CoFoE acted - like most deliberative exercises - as a Trojan horse into the dominant political conversation. The taboo-breaking recommendations put forward by citizens show how #CoFoE opened up the Overton window of EU political reform socialeurope.eu/releasing-euro…
4 True: it’s not the conference but the extraordinary events such as pandemic+war that revealed to the many the incomplete nature of EU integration.
Yet #CoFoE deliberative model being conducive to take stock of that great reckoning it capitalized on it.
socialeurope.eu/the-future-of-…
5 The question now is whether to content ourselves with EU patchy responses to the new emergencies – as the 12 countries resisting Treaty chance demand – , or rather to embark on a ‘quantum leap’ to upgrade the Union to the ‘brave new world’ in which we find ourselves in #CoFoE
6 The answer to this question will not only define EU’s course of history but also that of its 450 millions, and potentially many more waiting at its doors (ask Ukrainians, Moldovans, etc) #CoFoE
7 From this perspective, CoFoE is set to mark a watershed moment in EU integration as it will force all political leaders to PUBLICLY position themselves on EU’s future direction against citizens’ REVEALED preferences.

legrandcontinent.eu/fr/2021/05/10/…
8 #CoFoE represents the 1st recognition that EU ultimate authority does not lie with the institutions nor Member States, but with its citizens.

Due to its constitutional significance, this will irreversibly affect the nature of EU integration.

papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…
9 The recommendations that emerged from citizens were more the by-product of the genuine transnational experience gained by the Conference’s participants than the inevitable result of a supposedly pro-EU biased initiative #CoFoE
10 Here three big ideas on how to capitalize on the ‘constitutional moment’ the EU may be entering into.

Read this piece co-authored with @KalypsoNicolaid for @GEG_org @Grand_Continent #CoFoE

Reactions welcome! geopolitique.eu/en/articles/ci…

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More from @alemannoEU

Apr 29
As the Conference on the Future of Europe comes to an end, what can we reasonably expect?

(Spoiler: a fight over whether, how, and on what to re-open the Treaties NOW)

🧵 #CoFoE
2 Originally promised by @vonderleyen in the aftermath of her rocambolesque appointment, the Conference is the first attempt at institutional reform since 2007.

It didn’t look promising in its early days, but the context has changed.

theguardian.com/commentisfree/… #CoFoE
3 Amid lack of clear majority among Member States & disagreements among EU institutions, #CoFoE was postponed to May 9, 2021 by invoking the pandemic as the official excuse for the delay
This turned out to be a bless as led to redesigning it from scratch
socialeurope.eu/releasing-euro…
Read 12 tweets
Apr 29
No, the vast majority of the recommendations put forward by the Conference on the Future of Europe don’t require Treaty change.

Only 21 out 178, with <120 feasible under existing Treaties #CoFoE

cc: @suzannelynch1 @HankeVela
2. We’ve browsed all 178, and classified them into 4 categories:

1. Recs not requiring new action (23)
2. Recs entailing new action by MS (21)
3. Recs entailing new action by EU (113)
4. Recs entailing Treaty change (21) #cofoe
3. Among the 21 recs requiring Treaty Change, they call for transfer of new competences in:

1.Welfare (7)
2.Education (5)
3.Institutional reforms (4)
4.Health care (2)
5.Taxation (2)
6.Energy (1)
Read 6 tweets
Apr 1
🧵 Over the last 6 months, 800 randomly-selected EU citizens came up with 178 recommendations addressed to EU leaders

How many of them require Treaty change to become a reality?

(Spoiler: just a few)

A 🧵based on empirical work done @VillaVigoni
Credits to students #CoFoE
1. As the end of #CoFoE approaches (May 9), the question arises as to whether/how the EU will/should respond.

What form that response should take?

As we expect that response to be conditioned by the nature of recs proposed, here's a preliminary break out of the 178 recs.
2. We’ve browsed all 178 recs from the 4 Citizens' Panels, and classified them into 4 categories:

1. Recs not requiring new action (23)
2. Recs entailing new action by MS (21)
3. Recs entailing new action by EU (113)
4. Recs entailing Treaty change (21)

#CoFoE
Read 9 tweets
Mar 11
Let’s be frank: What Ukraine needs is not full EU membership (unrealistic today), but the prospect of greater access to the EU market, and that beyond the Association Agreement which underperformed.

How to attain that? 🧵

A thread on #Ukraine️EU after #EUCO
1. Ukraine's future into the EU should go beyond the narrow opposition:

Full membership vs Association Agreement

Neither of them would do justice to the emergency circumstances characterizing #Ukraine️' s demand nor the country's needs
2. The Association Agreement with the European Union - which originally triggered the Revolution and permanent war since 2014 - never delivered on its commercial promises with the EU benefiting more than Ukraine
Read 7 tweets
Dec 13, 2021
After 3 week-ends of deliberation, the first citizens' recommendations for EU leaders were approved over the weekend.
 
Their contents are as important as the PROCESS that delivered them.
 
The @EUI_EU final panel revealed a humbling, collective learning experience. A 🧵 #CoFoE Image
Citizens, mostly not used to transnational exposure & live interpretation (!), played the game by engaging in debates generally considered a prerogative of political elites/pundits.

Media pluralism, rule of law, conditionality of EU funding, citizen education. Wow. Image
Citizens produced 42 recommendations – from simplifying the names of EU institutions to guaranteeing media pluralism and Europeanizing politics, with one common thread:

to enable emergence of a pan-EU public sphere to enhance EU accountability ImageImageImageImage
Read 10 tweets
Nov 15, 2021
After 3 years studying the Conference on the Future of Europe, I had the chance to directly contribute to it by meeting - as expert witness - some of the citizens who have been randomly selected to discuss EU's future.

Here’s what I've learned #CoFoE 🧵

(Spoiler: A bunch )
Despite its limitations, #CoFoE - and in particular its 800-citizen panels - are de facto creating a mini transnational conversation among citizens who would not otherwise talk about the EU.

That's pretty magic for anyone who believes in EU project papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf… 2/
After 2 decades of teaching, training & civil society engagement, I’ve never experienced a more genuinely DIVERSE and committed audience before.

AND

Unlike citizens you can meet around the citizen panelists are more empowered: their recommendations will shape/transcend #cofoe
Read 7 tweets

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