1. As we approach the grim marker of #COVID19#deaths in the US, but hopefully have much brighter days ahead, I looked at the most current NCHS data thru May 7.
Below are age-adjusted COVID-19 mortality rates by state, with rankings and state comparisons to the national total.
2. Here's what those data look like by year. Obviously some dramatic diffs depending on time of the surge.
Many of the NE states had comparatively higher rates in 2020 (NY, NJ, CT, MA) due to the early pandemic surge, whereas the SE was hit hard in 2021 with a bad delta surge.
3. Below are age-specific mortality rates by age group. States can have very different results depending on the age group in question.
For example, #Florida is in the top 10 (best) for people 75 or older, but have comparatively worse rankings for younger age groups.
4. Some raw numbers are below.
This only touches on mortality in which #COVID19 was a documented cause of death. Does not touch on other serious outcomes.
And this only adjusts for age and there are many other factors that can make state comparisons still apples to oranges.
I plan to look at the most recent all-cause excess death data in the near future - as well as our updated hospitalization data and community levels.
Until then, this is a great thread about excess deaths, from @astokespop.
1. New county-level #risk indicators released by @CDCgov last night.
Here's your look at weekly #transmission levels since Feb 24.
After looking much better in March, we're continuing to see rates of newly reported cases increasing in most US regions.
2. But, as has been the case for a while, when basing risk level on #hospitalization rates and hospital capacity, at least visually, the story is very different.
3. This shows CHANGE in each metric yesterday compared to 1 week prior. Many more places worsening than improving.
14% of the population worsened on the hospital-based measure; only 1% improved.
23% of the population worsened on the transmission-based measure; only 6% improved.
1. Here are trends in new confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations among adults, by state, since March 1, 2022.
The number within each state cell is the % change in the past week.
Lots of ⬆️ recently.
2. Here's some specifics for #Florida hospitalizations.
Although numbers remain low relative to other times during the pandemic, we're now seeing more new adult admissions per day than we have in the past 2 mo.
Inpatient COVID census increasing, but more slowly (a good thing).
3. Here are trends in new reported COVID-19 cases, by state, since March 1, 2022.
The number within each state cell is the % change in the past week.
Note: each state has an independent y-axis to better visualize state-specific trends (NOT OPTIMAL TO COMPARE STATES).
Let's start with county-level: 1. community transmission & 2. hospital utilization for COVID
⬇️is a map of both indicators
- Levels on ⬅️
- Transmission on ➡️
Top portion is for THIS WEEK (Apr 14)
Bottom portion is for LAST WEEK (Apr 7)
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As you can see, the primary areas of concern are in the Northeast, where we are seeing high transmission, which is even resulting in the tough-to-move county levels to "medium"
And hospitalizations increasing in NY are causing some counties to enter the "high" level
2/
Where we stand at the county level as of April 14
Community levels
- 2980 (94.8%) low
- 150 (4.8%) medium
- 12 (0.4%) high
Community transmission
- 852 (27.1%) low
- 1491 (47.5%) moderate
- 415 (13.2%) substantial
- 380 (12.1%) high
3/
As BA.2 looms, @CDCgov updated their Community Levels metric yesterday and I also obtained and linked the older Community Transmission metric data.
Below is a reflection of where we were yesterday in terms of "risk level" using each metric and the CDC's color scheme for each
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And here's how counties and the US population living in those counties are distributed according to those two measures as of March 17, and based on data from the most recent 7 day window.
LEFT - new measure
RIGHT - old measure
Some big differences.
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Here's a more direct comparison between how a county would be classified under the old vs. new measure.
Blue shades indicate the new measure has LOWER risk
Orange/red shades indicate the new measure has HIGHER risk