1/ Ukrainian TVD, Day 77-79. The past 72 hrs has seen the Ukrainian military press the advantages made by their limited Kharkiv counteroffensive to push Russian forces into the Belgorod Oblast. Russian offensive action along the Siverskyi Donets Line has achieved little success. Image
2/ Weather. Forecast for the next 10 days will see increased rainstorms & cloud cover, severely degrading air & artillery strikes and ground assaults. Wind speed and direction will favor Ukrainian artillery strikes, however. Rainfall will continue to restrict movement to roads. Image
3/ Kharkiv OD. Russian forces have been thoroughly defeated north of Kharkiv. Russia has been conducting a fighting withdrawal since the start of the Ukrainian counteroffensive rather than trying to establishing a new defensive line. #UkraineRussianWar #Kharkiv Image
4/ The redeployment of 1st GTA & VDV units to the Vovchansk & Kupyansk areas indicates an eastward defensive shift tying into the natural barrier of the Siverskyi Donets River to augment the defensive capability & capacity of Russian forces to guard their rail & road GLOCs.
5/ Severodonetsk-Donetsk OD. Russian forces have suffered a series of significant setbacks with a few marginal successes over the past several days. Attrition & redeployment of 1st GTA / VDV units from the Izium Axis has forced Russia to assume the defense in this area. #Donbas Image
6/ Further east in the Severodoentsk Salient two attempts to ford the Siverskyi Donets NW of Severodoentsk and envelop the Salient from the NW and west resulted in a decisive defeat of at least one guards brigade, possibly two.
7/ Russian forces may be coming close to a culmination point in which they will have no choice but to halt offensive action for a more extensive refit to reconstitute combat losses. Before this occurs, they will likely shift to an all or nothing effort to seize Severodonetsk.
8/ Zaporizhzhia OD. Little has changed in the Zaporizhzhia OD over the past several days. Russian forces continue to rely on air & artillery strikes against Ukrainian defensive positions as units still reconstitute from the Siege of Mariupol. Image
9/ Azovstal. Against unrelenting air and artillery attacks, the defenders of the Azovstal complex still holding their ground. Russian attacks have secured the west entrance to Azovstal. In Mariupol, occupation authorities increase checkpoints to detain “suspicious” residents. Image
10/ Odesa-Kherson OD. There has been little change in the Kherson-Odesa OD. Missile strikes continue against Odesa, tensions remain high along the Moldova border. Ukrainian reports indicate occupation authorities are having difficulties establishing a proxy Kherson govt. #Odesa Image
11/ Black Sea. Snake Island is a maritime decisive strategic point from which the Russian Black Sea Fleet (BSF) can extend control over the SW coast of Ukraine, interdicting shipping in and out of Odesa. The BSF will likely continue attempts to extend control over this region. Image
12/ Aerospace Assessment. VKS air sorties have held steady at 250 in a 24-hrs period. Russian forces continue to improve air defense networks in Kherson and Snake Island. An improved air defense network in this region will exert control over Ukrainian shipping in the Black Sea.
13/ Battle Damage Assessment. Russian forces sustained considerable losses in several attempts to ford the Siverskyi Donets in the vicinity of Bilohorivka & Pryvillya. Though estimates vary, it is clear that at least 60-70 armored vehicles & hundreds of troops have been lost.
14/ These types of losses are crippling to Russian efforts in this critical region & simply not sustainable at Russia’s current replacement process. Russia can replace these losses, but it will take a considerable time and reliance on older equipment.
15/ Ukrainian TV, Day 77-79. Russia struggles to find an effective response to Sweden’s & Finland’s impending requests to join NATO, as well as new sanctions. Western aid to Ukraine continues to expand & accelerate as Western nations host Ukrainian Soldiers for training. Image
16/ Info War. Russia’s audience for information operations remains domestic. Russian state media has featured a few segments like this one, likely meant to elevate fears of a call for a general mobilization to maintain tacit support for the war effort.
17/ Information advantage. In an interview with AP News, Belarusian dictator Lukashenko criticizes the Russian war effort stating the war is “not going according to plan” & called for an end to hostilities, undermining Russia’s war justification narrative.
18/ Humanitarian Impact. Ukrainian refugees total 8.5+ million with 6.33+ million in countries bordering Ukraine, another 2.14+ throughout Europe, and 7.6+ million internally displaced people throughout Ukraine (1.4+ million in eastern & 519K in southern Ukraine).
19/ The Washington Post reports Russia is operating so-called “filtration” camps (i.e., concentration camps) in the Donetsk Oblast. Video released via Telegram shows a camp in the village of Bezimenne east of Mariupol where residents have been sent. washingtonpost.com/world/2022/05/…
20/ Overall Assessment. As surmised in my 03 May thread on the potential for a breakthrough along the Siverskyi Donets, Russia’s attempt at an integrated attack has failed to be synchronized in space & time. Any success will be localized to Severdonetsk.
21/ The best-case scenario outlined for Russian forces is increasingly likely not to occur. The Russian offensive in the Donbas may likely culminate in the next 2-3 weeks, with the forward line of contact relatively unchanged along the Izium & Lyman Axes.
22/ The Russians are likely still make progress in the Severodonetsk Salient, but successes will continue to come at a high price, remain slow, and may not push all Ukrainian forces out of the Luhansk Oblast. Lysychansk will likely remain under Ukrainian control by early June.
23/ Ukrainian forces are positioning themselves to potentially conduct, at scale, the type of general counteroffensive surmised in my 14 April post. Ukrainian forces will likely not commit to an operation of this scale until recent losses have been replaced. ImageImage
24/ These maps have been created by me based off the most reliable information of activity in the Ukrainian Theater of War from a variety of OSINT sources. Errors will be corrected as soon as they are identified.
25/ Information regarding Ukrainian units are meant to be general, are based on Ukrainian General Staff statements and social media posts, official Ukrainian government press releases, and local news. It does not depict current unit movements. END

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More from @JominiW

Feb 25
1/ Ukrainian TVD Operational Update (Day 1096): February 2025 saw intensifying military operations throughout the Ukrainian TVD, with both sides focusing on strategic air campaigns and continued Russian offensive on multiple fronts. Russia continued its missile and drone strikes on Ukrainian critical infrastructure, targeting energy grids and transportation hubs to disrupt military logistics and civilian morale. Meanwhile, Ukraine escalated its use of long-range drones and precision missile strikes, hitting Russian oil refineries and logistical hubs deep in Russian territory, including key sites in Belgorod and Kursk.

On the political front, Ukraine secured additional Western military aid, including French Mirage 2000 fighter jets, while NATO reaffirmed its support amidst growing concerns about potential escalation. Domestically, Russia faced increasing discontent among its population due to Ukrainian strikes on its territory, while sanctions-induced economic stagnation and logistical strain further challenged its war effort.

Economically, Ukraine struggled with energy shortages caused by continued Russian strikes, but international financial aid and grain export corridors through the Black Sea provided a lifeline. The conflict remains entrenched, with both nations locked in a war of attrition, as neither side achieved decisive breakthroughs on the battlefield or in negotiations. #UkraineWar #Donbass #Pokrovsk #Kupyansk #Pishchance #VelykaNovosilka #Kurakhove #ChasivYar #siverekImage
2/ Fourth Year of the War Begins: Today marks a solemn day for Ukraine and the international community. Three years have passed since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine commenced. Three years later, much has changed, but one constant that has remained is the resolve of the Ukrainian people to defy Russian aggression and the conviction of those in the West willing to oppose it. Ukraine has shown the world what Patriots are made of. #SlavaUkraini
x.com/ZelenskyyUa/st…
3/ Operational Terms: Here is a list of commonly used terms and their definitions to help you understand the thread's graphics. Image
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Read 25 tweets
Feb 12
1/ Daily Tactical Update (DTU), Ukrainian TVD Day 1083: Today's DTU focuses on actions along the Donetsk Front from 08-11 February, 2025. #Siversk #Donbas #ChasivYar #Toretsk #Pokrovsk #NovyKomar #VelykaNovosilka #UkraineWar #RussiaUkraineWar #Russia #Ukraine #SlavaUkraini Image
2/ Operational Terms: Here is a list of commonly used terms and their definitions to help you understand the thread's graphics. Image
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3/ Operational Overview: The Donetsk Oblast serves as the critical front for the Ground Forces of the Russian Federation (SVRF). The primary focus of OUGRV-Ukraine operations is the capture of southern Donetsk Oblast, which will facilitate advances into the less fortified areas of western and central Donetsk.

In the OSV Yug Area of Responsibility, the 3d Guards Combined Arms Army has made minor advancements in the Siversk region. In the Chasiv Yar area, VDV and Spetsnaz units have achieved significant tactical control over the northern and central sections of the town. The 41st Guards Combined Arms Army has established control over most of Toretsk. Yet, Ukrainian forces continue to resist in the northern and northwest outskirts of the city. While OSVs Tsentr and Vostok are making daily advancements in southern Donetsk, OUV Donetsk is successfully conducting delaying operations despite intense pressure.Image
Read 14 tweets
Feb 1
1/ Daily Tactical Update (DTU), Ukrainian TVD Day 1073: Today's DTU focuses on actions in the Siversk Operational Direction during January 2025. #Siversk #Donbas #UkraineWar #RussiaUkraineWar #Russia #Ukraine #SlavaUkraini Image
2/ Operational Terms: Here is a list of commonly used terms and their definitions to help you understand the thread's graphics. Image
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3/ Operational Overview: The Siversk OD is not only militarily sensitive for Russia and Ukraine but also politically, especially for Russia. Since the fall of Severodonetsk, Lysychansk, and Popasna, Siversk has been a key operational hub. It occupies a crucial position within the OSUV Khortytsia area of responsibility. It acts as a coordination center between OTU Lyman and OTU Luhansk to defend the Slovyansk/Kramatorsk urban conglomerate, a critical strategic point in the Donbas SD. Additionally, it serves as the entry point into northern Donetsk Oblast.

Little has changed in the Siversk OD for almost two and a half years. It is a principal source of Russian military frustration, exemplifying the inadequacies of the Russian Armed Forces in achieving a decisive victory over Ukraine and the Ukrainian ability to hold their territory and outfight the Russians.Image
Read 9 tweets
Jan 28
1/ Daily Tactical Update (DTU), Ukrainian TVD Day 1069: Today's DTU focuses on actions in the Southern Donetsk Front from January 22-27, which includes the Pokrovsk and Velyka Novosilka Operational Directions. #Pokrovsk #VelykaNovosilka #UkraineWar #RussiaUkraineWar #Russia Image
2/ Operational Terms: Here is a list of commonly used terms and their definitions to help you understand the thread's graphics. Image
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3/ Operational Overview: Major Viktor Tregubov, spokesperson for the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Grouping of Forces (OSUV) Khortytsia, stated that the Russians are trying to bypass Pokrovsk from the western side, looking for vulnerabilities in the Ukrainian defenses to capture the city. Tregubov also suggested that the Russians would not try to reach the Dnipropetrovsk region but concentrate on capturing Pokrovsk city. The major stated that the Russians maintain their daily average of 50-60 combat actions along this sector of the front.Image
Read 10 tweets
Jan 26
1/ Daily Tactical Update (DTU), Ukrainian TVD Day 1067: Today's DTU focuses on actions in the Kupyansk Operational Direction from January 5-25, 2025, with some highlights of events in other parts of the TVD. #Kupyansk #Torestsk #VelykaNovosilka #Kursk #Pokrovsk #UkraineWar #RussiaUkraineWar #RussiaImage
2/ Operational Terms: Here is a list of commonly used terms and their definitions to help you understand the thread's graphics. Image
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3/ Operational Overview: The 1st Guards Tank Army continues its well-coordinated multi-division offensive along a line of operations at the junction of the OTU Kupyansk and OTU Staroblisk areas of responsibility. The assault by the 2d Guard Motorized Rifle Division into northern Kupyansk and Dvorichna during late 2024 and early 2025 has revealed vulnerabilities in Ukrainian defenses in this segment of the front to infiltration. The expanding Dvorichna Bridgehead presents a substantial challenge for ZSU forces. Should the Russians succeed in capturing Dvorichna and extend their lines south towards Radkivka and Holubivka, the 2d Guard Motorized Rifle Division would establish a new avenue of advance to possibly encircle Kupyansk from the north.Image
Read 12 tweets
Jan 25
1/ Daily Tactical Update (DTU), Ukrainian TVD Day 1066: Today's DTU focuses on actions in the Toretsk Area of Operations from January 05-24, 2025, with some highlights of events in Velya Novosilka and in Kursk. #Torestsk #VelykaNovosilka #Kursk #UkraineWar #RussiaUkraineWar #RussiaImage
2/ Operational Terms: Here is a list of commonly used terms and their definitions to help you understand the thread's graphics. Image
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3/ Operational Overview: OSV Yug successfully and swiftly integrated reserve forces into the front-line units of the 41st Guards Combined Arms Army by the end of December 2024. In early January 2025, Russian forces in central Toretsk initiated a series of well-coordinated platoon-sized assaults, taking advantage of the limited visibility caused by ongoing adverse weather conditions, to concentrate assault teams along key routes of advance. This tactical approach diminished the effectiveness of Ukrainian FPV targeting while enhancing Russian maneuver superiority.

As a result, Ukrainian defenses in central and southern Toretsk rapidly deteriorated, with approximately 70% of the city coming under Russian control by mid-January. ZSU forces established a final defensive line stretching from the forested region west of Dachne to the Toretska mine. Further south, Ukrainian troops maintained control over the Tsentralna Mine and exerted FPV and fire control over the western areas of the ZabalkaMicro-District, accounting for around 30% of Toretsk's territory still under Ukrainian control.Image
Read 10 tweets

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