Yesterday was the last day of in-person early voting in NC. A few more early & mail ballots will trickle in (@gercohen estimates ~1K), but this should be the lion's share
2022: ~576.5K (4% mail)
2020 same day: ~794K
2018 same day: ~293K
2014 same day: ~268.5K

#ncpol (1/4) Image
11% of all ballots cast & 13% of Rep ballots are in #NC11 (highest in the state for both)

10% of all ballots cast & 15% of Dem ballots are in #NC4.

62% of Una. voters are choosing the R ballot statewide, but w/ wide variation (87%R/12%D in #nc10 & 36/62 in NC4)

#ncpol (2/4) ImageImageImageImage
In #nc11, the population center of Buncombe continues to dominate in terms of overall ballots & Dem ballots.

~60% of Dem ballots cast are from Buncombe. ~45% of R ballots cast are from Buncombe or Henderson.

~70% of #nc11 Una voters chose the R primary.

#ncpol (3/4) ImageImageImageImage
That's it for the quick update. More analysis to follow as I dig in a bit more.

Early voting is over, but election day votes still to come in, so if you want to predict the outcome of the election, you're better off practicing onomancy than relying on these data.

#ncpol (4/4)

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More from @chriscooperwcu

May 18
5 emerging thoughts on Cawthorn's loss. #ncpol #nc11

A 🧵 :
1. For all of the scandals, the one that did Cawthorn in was leaving the district & coming back. When he left, Edwards, Burril, Woodhouse & O'Connell weren't in this race. If he didn't leave, it's unlikely they would have gotten in. And he likely would weathered the storm.
2. Rules matter: without a runoff, Cawthorn wouldn’t have been elected in in the first place. If the #ncga didn’t move the threshold down to 30% in 2017, we’d be in a runoff in 2022.
Read 7 tweets
May 17
1. Lots of potential for runoffs in #ncpol (technically called a second primary, but Kleenax are technically called facial tissues, too)

The key idea is that to win, a candidate must get the most votes AND get 30% of the votes cast for that office + 1 vote (the magic number)
🧵
2. If the candidate with the most votes does not reach the magic number, then the second place candidate can ask for a runoff.

And yes, sometimes second place candidates doesn't ask for a runoff. Here's a recent example: Image
3. If we have a second primary, it will be July 26.

Want the details?
ncleg.gov/EnactedLegisla…
Read 6 tweets
May 17
National media posting helpful previews about what to follow in NC primaries today. Everyone's listing #nc11, but if you're not also watching #nc4 #nc1 & #nc13, you're doing it wrong (1/4)

#ncpol
Lots of interesting #ncga primaries, but If I could only follow 2, it would be Hise/Ballard (SD 47) on the R side smokymountainnews.com/archives/item/… (story by @SMN_Cory) & deViere/Applewhite (SD19) on the D side newsobserver.com/news/politics-… (story by @dawnbvaughan)

(2/4)
Fascinating local races across the state that will go a long ways to determining the direction of NC. Far too many to list, so I'll just point out this Charlotte City Council seat as one worth watching (story by @timfunk)

(3/4)
theassemblync.com/long-form/patr…
Read 4 tweets
May 17
It's election eve in #ncpol (like New Year's Eve but w/ no hangover or pressure to stay up past midnight) & it's worth reflecting briefly on the people & institutions it takes to run a primary election and keep democracy working 🤏🧵
1) It takes a lot to run for office in any environment, but particularly in 2022 with..[gestures widely]...my 🎩 is off to all the candidates. Most of these folks are doing it for the promise of low $ & the inability to go to the grocery store w/o being harassed.
2) without an active & free press keeping us informed, this whole thing falls apart. We're lucky to have smart journalists covering our state--in DC, in Raleigh, and throughout the state. W/o them, it's just social media & spam texts (i.e. w/o them it's good-bye democracy).
Read 6 tweets
May 16
Some back of the envelope math on potential voter turnout scenarios in #ncpol.

Background: In the past few elections, election day voting has become a smaller proportion of the overall vote. It was ~69% in the 2018 primary. We expect that % to drop, but by how much? 🤷

(1/6)
So, I ran some scenarios w/ 50% of all turnout coming on election day (ED), 55% coming on ED & 60% coming on ED.

Statewide:
50% ED translates to ~15.8% final turnout
55% ED: 17.6% final turnout
60% ED: 19.8% final turnout

(2/6) #ncpol
Here's midterm primary turnout from 1990-2018.

To surpass 2002 primary turnout, election day % would have to exceed all of the scenarios above.

(3/6) #ncpol Image
Read 6 tweets
Oct 10, 2020
NC Absentee-by-mail (ABM) Oct. 10 update: ~465K (464,921) ABM ballots now accepted. #ncpol (1/8)
51% of accepted ballots thus far are from registered Dems, 18% from reg. Reps, 31% from reg. Unaffiliated. This is the opposite of 2016 when Republicans made up the plurality of folks who returned ABM ballots in NC. #ncpol (2/8)
This newfound Democratic Party domination of ABM balloting is a statewide phenomenon: more Ds than Rs have returned ballots in every county but 5 (Avery, Davie, Mitchell, Stokes, & Yadkin).#ncpol (3/8)
Read 9 tweets

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