Just before the election, I published a book, Anatomy of a Purple State.

Since the election, a few people have asked whether NC is still a purple state & more generally, what happened in NC in 2024?

Here are some answers, heavy on the graphs, in a long 🧵

(1/19) #ncpol I've seen some make the case that maybe NC isn't that purple.

After all, a Republican won NCs Electoral College votes again and the last time a Dem won the state was in 2008. The time before that was 1976--& that guy just turned 100 years old.

Brief thread on last night's second primaries in #ncpol.

But first a caveat: these are unofficial results. Some of the specifics will shift.

Stanly County, for example, has not reported (or at least it's not on the @ncsbe system yet).

(1/7) First up: Turnout

Method 1: Statewide <3% of voters who were eligible to vote did so.

Method 2: compare to 1st primary turnout & 2010-2020 avg for that office ⤵️
Auditor: 14.5% of primary 1 (2010-2020 avg for COS=25.8%)
LG: 13.8% (avg=25.8%)
Congress: 25.7% (avg for cong=38%)

Yesterday I stumbled across a building in southern Jackson County, NC that proclaimed it was the smallest building ever to house a post office.

Then I got curious and, with apologies to @deftlyinane, I went down what can only be described as a rabbit hole.

A thread (1/18)

https://twitter.com/chriscooperwcu/status/1779650234416500890

Here’s the story of the place in an article posted inside (smallest post office in the country; built in 1878, closed in 1953 because Dwight D. Eisenhower ended Class III post offices).

Stephen Colbert would be proud; a lot of truthiness in there.

(2/18)

Following the 2024 NC gubernatorial election requires us to hold two seemingly contradictory things in our heads at the same time: (1) The NC gubernatorial election is among the most important elections in the country, (2) the NC Governor is extremely weak

A wonky #ncpol 🧵 On point 1: The Governor is the rhetorical political leader of the state. Like EF Hutton, when they talk, people listen. Whether or not they have actual power is beside the point to most citizens; people think the Gov is powerful, therefore (to some degree), they are.

Like everyone else in #ncpol, @BowTiePolitics & I been thinking a lot about the Tricia Cotham Party Switch.

A brief 🧵below for today.

Look for an @OldNorthStPol blog entry soon (probably tomorrow) In terms of ideology, Cotham's past voting record places her towards the moderate end of the NC Dem Party, although she has not been a conservative.

Here's one way to think about it, using @bshor & @Nolan_Mc/s measure. Vertical line is Cotham. Higher #'s=more liberal.

5 emerging thoughts on Cawthorn's loss. #ncpol #nc11

A 🧵 : 1. For all of the scandals, the one that did Cawthorn in was leaving the district & coming back. When he left, Edwards, Burril, Woodhouse & O'Connell weren't in this race. If he didn't leave, it's unlikely they would have gotten in. And he likely would weathered the storm.

1. Lots of potential for runoffs in #ncpol (technically called a second primary, but Kleenax are technically called facial tissues, too)

The key idea is that to win, a candidate must get the most votes AND get 30% of the votes cast for that office + 1 vote (the magic number)
🧵 2. If the candidate with the most votes does not reach the magic number, then the second place candidate can ask for a runoff.

And yes, sometimes second place candidates doesn't ask for a runoff. Here's a recent example:

National media posting helpful previews about what to follow in NC primaries today. Everyone's listing #nc11, but if you're not also watching #nc4 #nc1 & #nc13, you're doing it wrong (1/4)

#ncpol Lots of interesting #ncga primaries, but If I could only follow 2, it would be Hise/Ballard (SD 47) on the R side smokymountainnews.com/archives/item/… (story by @SMN_Cory) & deViere/Applewhite (SD19) on the D side newsobserver.com/news/politics-… (story by @dawnbvaughan)

(2/4)

It's election eve in #ncpol (like New Year's Eve but w/ no hangover or pressure to stay up past midnight) & it's worth reflecting briefly on the people & institutions it takes to run a primary election and keep democracy working 🤏🧵 1) It takes a lot to run for office in any environment, but particularly in 2022 with..[gestures widely]...my 🎩 is off to all the candidates. Most of these folks are doing it for the promise of low $ & the inability to go to the grocery store w/o being harassed.

Some back of the envelope math on potential voter turnout scenarios in #ncpol.

Background: In the past few elections, election day voting has become a smaller proportion of the overall vote. It was ~69% in the 2018 primary. We expect that % to drop, but by how much? 🤷

(1/6) So, I ran some scenarios w/ 50% of all turnout coming on election day (ED), 55% coming on ED & 60% coming on ED.

Statewide:
50% ED translates to ~15.8% final turnout
55% ED: 17.6% final turnout
60% ED: 19.8% final turnout

(2/6) #ncpol

Yesterday was the last day of in-person early voting in NC. A few more early & mail ballots will trickle in (@gercohen estimates ~1K), but this should be the lion's share
2022: ~576.5K (4% mail)
2020 same day: ~794K
2018 same day: ~293K
2014 same day: ~268.5K

#ncpol (1/4) 11% of all ballots cast & 13% of Rep ballots are in #NC11 (highest in the state for both)

10% of all ballots cast & 15% of Dem ballots are in #NC4.

62% of Una. voters are choosing the R ballot statewide, but w/ wide variation (87%R/12%D in #nc10 & 36/62 in NC4)

#ncpol (2/4)

NC Absentee-by-mail (ABM) Oct. 10 update: ~465K (464,921) ABM ballots now accepted. #ncpol (1/8) 51% of accepted ballots thus far are from registered Dems, 18% from reg. Reps, 31% from reg. Unaffiliated. This is the opposite of 2016 when Republicans made up the plurality of folks who returned ABM ballots in NC. #ncpol (2/8)