Katy Hayward Profile picture
May 15 3 tweets 2 min read
PM @BorisJohnson writes a long letter to Northern Ireland about Northern Ireland before he visits-
possibly in lieu of mtg many in person 📝

Much to be welcomed here but there's something akin to bipolarity in UKG msg'ing on NI & #Protocol at the mo.
1/3
belfasttelegraph.co.uk/opinion/commen…
On the #Protocol:
Wants "to create the broadest possible cross-community support for a reformed Protocol" - rather subtle nod to unionists.

The problems identified here are (I) fixed already or (II) needing a case made to allow an exemption for NI, ie quite straightforward.
2/3
On other matters:
*Recognition of progressive parties, eg move on abortion services
*Indirect promise of Irish lang act
*Moved away from blanket amnesty on legacy
*Titles of deputy/ first minister to remain

Not much here for DUP at face value, wh is odd.
It is but an op ed.
3/3

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More from @hayward_katy

May 4
Predicting the outcome of the Assembly #Election in N.Ireland is straightforward enough if you know how.

There are a handful of key factors to bear in mind.

Nail all of these & you’ll be way ahead of the game come results day 🤓
#AE22 🏖️

1/8
#1: the Issues 📝
What concerns are raised on the door steps? On the airwaves? Social media? Street demos?

What real life problems are addressed in the manifestos?
What policies are dissected in political debate?

Find the common thread across these & ... oh 😶

Moving on💨
2/8
#2: the Parties🥳

What do the polls say [& do they tally]?
How trusted are their leaders, & how secure are they?
How did they perform in the last mandate?
Have they made major blunders?
Are they running too many or too few candidates?
How transfer-friendly are they, to whom?
3/8
Read 8 tweets
Feb 17
Serious concerns about growth of executive power & weakening rule of #law & #humanrights protection are closer to home than Hungary or Poland ⚠️

I'm proud to be part of the UK Constitution Monitoring Group, whose 2nd report is issued today @Con_Soc
👇
1/5 consoc.org.uk/publications/t…
In summary -
UK govt intent on reducing already-insufficient checks and balances on ministerial power.
2/5
Raft of new bills show nature of the UK Govt's agenda for constitutional reform.
3/5
Read 5 tweets
Oct 22, 2021
The #Protocol on IRL/NI was agreed 2 years ago, with a key objective of avoiding a hard @BorderIrish

But what has #Brexit been like for people living along the #border?

We @QUBSSESW @europe_icban @UKandEU investigated…
And our report is out today!
tinyurl.com/AfterBrexit
1/10 Cover of Border After Brexit report
This is our 4th QUB/ICBAN report since the 2016 referendum.

The study involved an online #survey of those living/working in the Central Border Region.

Our survey received c400 responses, equally spread either side of the border. There were also interviews & focus groups.

2/10
We are VERY grateful to each of the respondents to this survey.

It took a time to complete because we insisted on getting comments/views/examples…

And hence the report is another fairly hefty one, as the #Contents show.

The focus is on giving space/voice to respondents.

3/10 Contents pages of the report
Read 10 tweets
Jul 2, 2021
My wee book on the Irish border is out!

Inc. Irish #borders of land, sea, mind, & (gawd 'elp us) tech

Endorsed by its subject, @BorderIrish 🤩
the most sound & stand-out social scientists & journalists in GB & Ireland 😍
& the Primate of All-Ireland 😇

us.sagepub.com/en-us/nam/what…
Read 6 tweets
Jun 30, 2021
So the #Protocol is the talk of the town today, but what do the people most affected by it actually think about it?!

We @PostBrexitGovNI thought that was worth finding out. So we’re running polls in NI with @LucidTalk 📊

Here’s the 2nd one –

qub.ac.uk/sites/post-bre…

1/8
HEADLINE: NI is divided over the subject, believe it or not.

47% think Protocol is appropriate; 47% disagree.

What's interesting is that this split hasn’t changed much since last poll in March.

Most think NI needs specific arrangements but they disagree over the Protocol.

2/8
The majority (57%) think there are economic opportunities for NI from the Protocol, but right now, the predominant view of its current impact is negative.

This graph shows positive-minus-negative results 👇

41% say Protocol has a positive impact on NI economy, 48% disagree.
3/8
Read 8 tweets
Jun 25, 2021
Why are post-Brexit N.Ireland politics so fraught?

There’s some illuminating data in @ARK_info NI Life&Times survey

We’ve asked Qs since 2016 on perceived impact of #Brexit on the prospect of Irish unification

This thread & @UKandEU blog explain:
ukandeu.ac.uk/northern-irela…

1/6
In 2016, a clear majority in NI thought #Brexit made no difference to likelihood of Irish unity or their views about it.

#Unionists didn’t want or expect it.

#Nationalists wanted it but didn’t expect it any time soon.

Those who were ‘Neither’ didn't think it changed much.

2/6
By end 2020, the majority in NI think #Brexit makes a united Ireland more likely.

Nationalists' expectations grew steeply over the 5 yrs

A less steep but similar trajectory for Neithers

Over 2020, i.e. post-WA, the largest proportion of unionists came to believe this too

3/6
Read 6 tweets

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