On the #Protocol:
Wants "to create the broadest possible cross-community support for a reformed Protocol" - rather subtle nod to unionists.
The problems identified here are (I) fixed already or (II) needing a case made to allow an exemption for NI, ie quite straightforward. 2/3
On other matters:
*Recognition of progressive parties, eg move on abortion services
*Indirect promise of Irish lang act
*Moved away from blanket amnesty on legacy
*Titles of deputy/ first minister to remain
Not much here for DUP at face value, wh is odd.
It is but an op ed.
3/3
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Predicting the outcome of the Assembly #Election in N.Ireland is straightforward enough if you know how.
There are a handful of key factors to bear in mind.
Nail all of these & you’ll be way ahead of the game come results day 🤓 #AE22 🏖️
1/8
#1: the Issues 📝
What concerns are raised on the door steps? On the airwaves? Social media? Street demos?
What real life problems are addressed in the manifestos?
What policies are dissected in political debate?
Find the common thread across these & ... oh 😶
Moving on💨
2/8
#2: the Parties🥳
What do the polls say [& do they tally]?
How trusted are their leaders, & how secure are they?
How did they perform in the last mandate?
Have they made major blunders?
Are they running too many or too few candidates?
How transfer-friendly are they, to whom?
3/8
HEADLINE: NI is divided over the subject, believe it or not.
47% think Protocol is appropriate; 47% disagree.
What's interesting is that this split hasn’t changed much since last poll in March.
Most think NI needs specific arrangements but they disagree over the Protocol.
2/8
The majority (57%) think there are economic opportunities for NI from the Protocol, but right now, the predominant view of its current impact is negative.
This graph shows positive-minus-negative results 👇
41% say Protocol has a positive impact on NI economy, 48% disagree. 3/8