Thread by @chriscooperwcu

Some back of the envelope math on potential voter turnout scenarios in #ncpol.

Background: In the past few elections, election day voting has become a smaller proportion of the overall vote. It was ~69% in the 2018 primary. We expect that % to drop, but by how much? 🤷

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So, I ran some scenarios w/ 50% of all turnout coming on election day (ED), 55% coming on ED & 60% coming on ED.

Statewide:
50% ED translates to ~15.8% final turnout
55% ED: 17.6% final turnout
60% ED: 19.8% final turnout

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Here's midterm primary turnout from 1990-2018.

To surpass 2002 primary turnout, election day % would have to exceed all of the scenarios above.

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In the #nc11 Rep primary, 38K ballots have been cast.
50% ED: ~77K final turnout
55% ED: ~85K final turnout
60%: ~96K final turnout

For comparison, in 2020, 90,696 ballots were cast in the 2020 Rep NC11 primary.

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The numbers to avoid a runoff in the #nc11 Rep primary under each of these scenarios would be:

50% ED: ~23K
55% ED: ~25.5K
60% ED: 28.7K

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I've got no clue which (if any) of these scenarios are going to happen. My election crystal ball is in the same drawer as my betamax VCR and my 8 track player.

So, please take these numbers for what they are (& no more)-marks on the wall to gauge what we see Tues.

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