Some thoughts from an article "Why russia Will Lose the War" by Oleksander Shcherba @olex_scherba, Chief Advisor to Naftogaz CEO, diplomat.
1. putin has been preparing for this war for years. He wanted to make conquering Ukraine his main triumph. He amassed capital, raised hatred and chauvinism in russians and built up beliefs that Ukraine is waiting to be conquered.
2. When russians saw that Ukraine didn't want to be "liberated" and would put up a fight, they became disappointed and furious. This is why Bucha massacre happened, among many others.
3. This war will be the end of russia. The main question everyone still has - how much more grief and destruction putin will cause before he dies in his bunker?
4. Ukrainian heroism became a surprise for the whole world as well. Everyone expected the country to fall and capitulate. This would cement russian zones of influence and teach the West not to play games with russia.
5. The West used to believe that anything in the 21st century can be solved by democracy. Russia hasn't arrived to 21st century yet, so doesn't share this belief. Now it is threatening with nuclear strikes.
6. Russia is living in a collective dream together with putin but it will have to wake up. It will be painful. No one knows what will happen until then. Stakes are very high for putin.
7. This war could have become a global triumph of evil, but it hasn't. Ukraine keeps getting more, and russia keeps getting less. The scales have already tipped in our favor, and revenge for our tragedy will come.
1. Ukraine must win but Ukraine should define the contours of this victory, not the US. Government and people should decide which outcome of war they wll accept. We will support this decision.
2. We always acknowedged Crimea as Ukraine. But the decision to liberate occupied territories, including Crimea, lies with Ukraine. We want Ukraine to win this war.
1. "It will be difficult for Ukrainian economy to withstand a long war," - Finance Minister Serhiy Marchenko.
Ukrainian GDP will shrink by almost half in 2022, by current estimates. We need about $5 billion each month to sustain expenses - supplied by other countries.
2. If war lasts more than another three or four months, very painful measures will need to be taken (drastic tax increases, spending cuts, maybe a wave of nationalization). This will undermine all the progress Ukraine has achieved in recent years in modernizing its economy.
3. There is a huge problem with transportation of crops. Ports are blocked, railroads and trucks cannot manage such a large amount for transportation. Each EU country must allow free access of UA trucks onto their territory or food shortages will become reality.
1/4 Transnistria is a Moldovan territory which has been occupied by russia for 30 years. But UN has officially recognized it as such on 15th March 2022, after russian full scale invasion to Ukraine. #UkraineRussianWar#UkraineUnderAttaсk
2/4 🇷🇺 is currently trying to "heat up" atmosphere in Transnistria, threatening with alleged 🇺🇦 attacks (which, in fact, would be carried out by 🇷🇺 secret services) to justify military actions over there. 🇷🇺 ultimate goal is to cut off south of Odesa region from 🇺🇦 control.
3/4 Trasnistrian military formations are not very numerous, don't have a lot of weapons and experience. There is also a 🇷🇺 military group of up to 2,500 people who are guarding weapons warehouse. Men are fearing mobilization, so large numbers of people are now leaving the region
I would like to tell you a little more about the women who are now traveling to Turkey to try and save their men. Each post of this thread is a story of a family that is now in great danger of never seeing each other again. #SaveAzov#SaveAzovstal#AzovstalExtraction 👇
1.Olga Boiko, wife of Ievhen Kichkir, Senior Marine, 36th brigade: "Each of our men deserves to pick up his child again, hug his wife, see his Motherland. We believe that our Defenders will be able to get evacuation to a third country and stay safe there until the war is over."
2. Natalia Zarytska, wife of Bohdan Semenets, Azov Battallion: "My husband has served in Azov since 2019. We have been together for 3,5 years, and on 17th April 2022 we got married at Azovstal. Our son Sasha, 8, drew this plea when we hid from bombs in a basement."
1/4 #Kharkiv is my native city. It hurt a lot to see what was happening to it. Now we can already say that Kharkiv withstood and we have had some success in the battle for it.
2/4 What exactly tipped the scales in our favor? Motivation of Defenders is one of the main factors. Russian-speaking Kharkiv formed a powerful territorial guards unit together with volunteer movement.
3/4 Instead of flowers russians got harsh resistance and bloody battles. Everyone wants to arm themselves and fight when our homes, schools and parks are being bombed.
1/4 🧵After putin's statements yesterday it became clear that he will only stop where Ukrainian army will stop him. #UkraineRussiaWar
2/4 To change the situation in the East radically and begin attacking, we need at least 2,000 artillery barrels and hundreds of MLRS with unlimited supply of guns and missiles. #ArmUkraineNow
3/4 We need thousands of armored vehicles to safely get infantry and artillery to the frontlines. Hundreds of tanks to break the enemy's defense.
We need thousands of trucks and tens of thousands of pick-up trucks to quickly move troos to the frontlines and maneuver.