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May 17 • 4 tweets • 3 min read
National media posting helpful previews about what to follow in NC primaries today. Everyone's listing #nc11, but if you're not also watching #nc4 #nc1 & #nc13, you're doing it wrong (1/4)

#ncpol
Lots of interesting #ncga primaries, but If I could only follow 2, it would be Hise/Ballard (SD 47) on the R side smokymountainnews.com/archives/item/… (story by @SMN_Cory) & deViere/Applewhite (SD19) on the D side newsobserver.com/news/politics-… (story by @dawnbvaughan)

(2/4)
Fascinating local races across the state that will go a long ways to determining the direction of NC. Far too many to list, so I'll just point out this Charlotte City Council seat as one worth watching (story by @timfunk)

(3/4)
theassemblync.com/long-form/patr…
oh yeah, and we've got a US Senate race, too.

(4/4)

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More from @chriscooperwcu

Chris Cooper Profile picture
May 18
5 emerging thoughts on Cawthorn's loss. #ncpol #nc11

A 🧵 :
1. For all of the scandals, the one that did Cawthorn in was leaving the district & coming back. When he left, Edwards, Burril, Woodhouse & O'Connell weren't in this race. If he didn't leave, it's unlikely they would have gotten in. And he likely would weathered the storm.
2. Rules matter: without a runoff, Cawthorn wouldn’t have been elected in in the first place. If the #ncga didn’t move the threshold down to 30% in 2017, we’d be in a runoff in 2022.
Read 7 tweets
Chris Cooper Profile picture
May 17
1. Lots of potential for runoffs in #ncpol (technically called a second primary, but Kleenax are technically called facial tissues, too)

The key idea is that to win, a candidate must get the most votes AND get 30% of the votes cast for that office + 1 vote (the magic number)
🧵
2. If the candidate with the most votes does not reach the magic number, then the second place candidate can ask for a runoff.

And yes, sometimes second place candidates doesn't ask for a runoff. Here's a recent example: Image
3. If we have a second primary, it will be July 26.

Want the details?
ncleg.gov/EnactedLegisla…
Read 6 tweets
Chris Cooper Profile picture
May 17
It's election eve in #ncpol (like New Year's Eve but w/ no hangover or pressure to stay up past midnight) & it's worth reflecting briefly on the people & institutions it takes to run a primary election and keep democracy working 🤏🧵
1) It takes a lot to run for office in any environment, but particularly in 2022 with..[gestures widely]...my 🎩 is off to all the candidates. Most of these folks are doing it for the promise of low $ & the inability to go to the grocery store w/o being harassed.
2) without an active & free press keeping us informed, this whole thing falls apart. We're lucky to have smart journalists covering our state--in DC, in Raleigh, and throughout the state. W/o them, it's just social media & spam texts (i.e. w/o them it's good-bye democracy).
Read 6 tweets
Chris Cooper Profile picture
May 16
Some back of the envelope math on potential voter turnout scenarios in #ncpol.

Background: In the past few elections, election day voting has become a smaller proportion of the overall vote. It was ~69% in the 2018 primary. We expect that % to drop, but by how much? 🤷

(1/6)
So, I ran some scenarios w/ 50% of all turnout coming on election day (ED), 55% coming on ED & 60% coming on ED.

Statewide:
50% ED translates to ~15.8% final turnout
55% ED: 17.6% final turnout
60% ED: 19.8% final turnout

(2/6) #ncpol
Here's midterm primary turnout from 1990-2018.

To surpass 2002 primary turnout, election day % would have to exceed all of the scenarios above.

(3/6) #ncpol Image
Read 6 tweets
Chris Cooper Profile picture
May 15
Yesterday was the last day of in-person early voting in NC. A few more early & mail ballots will trickle in (@gercohen estimates ~1K), but this should be the lion's share
2022: ~576.5K (4% mail)
2020 same day: ~794K
2018 same day: ~293K
2014 same day: ~268.5K

#ncpol (1/4) Image
11% of all ballots cast & 13% of Rep ballots are in #NC11 (highest in the state for both)

10% of all ballots cast & 15% of Dem ballots are in #NC4.

62% of Una. voters are choosing the R ballot statewide, but w/ wide variation (87%R/12%D in #nc10 & 36/62 in NC4)

#ncpol (2/4) ImageImageImageImage
In #nc11, the population center of Buncombe continues to dominate in terms of overall ballots & Dem ballots.

~60% of Dem ballots cast are from Buncombe. ~45% of R ballots cast are from Buncombe or Henderson.

~70% of #nc11 Una voters chose the R primary.

#ncpol (3/4) ImageImageImageImage
Read 4 tweets
Chris Cooper Profile picture
Oct 10, 2020
NC Absentee-by-mail (ABM) Oct. 10 update: ~465K (464,921) ABM ballots now accepted. #ncpol (1/8)
51% of accepted ballots thus far are from registered Dems, 18% from reg. Reps, 31% from reg. Unaffiliated. This is the opposite of 2016 when Republicans made up the plurality of folks who returned ABM ballots in NC. #ncpol (2/8)
This newfound Democratic Party domination of ABM balloting is a statewide phenomenon: more Ds than Rs have returned ballots in every county but 5 (Avery, Davie, Mitchell, Stokes, & Yadkin).#ncpol (3/8)
Read 9 tweets

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