Thread by @renepickhardt

2nd week @summerofbitcoin started and my two mentees Krystal Maughan and @sebulino working on Price of Anarchy in Selfish routing already nerd sniped me and I just had to sit down to create this diagram which predict the channels failure rate assuming a given drain on channels

I give a bit more context on this issue on the @lightning labs lnd issue at github.com/lightningnetwo…

I just realized that the depleting model of a channel can be seen as a bounded discrete 1 dimensional random walk (en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Random_wa…). Damn it! I really tried to avoid learning those & Martingales (en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martingal…) for a long time

fyi @Snyke @bitromortac @c_otto83

Btw I spent quite some time yesterday getting an overview of literature. Including drain it seems not to be a classic random walk but rather close to a de Moivre martingale.

I think with that for the first time I can properly define the price of anarchy on the #lightningnetwork