1. Based on this week's @CDCgov transmission levels, it's not getting better.
Last week - 72% of people lived in high transmission areas, 89% in substantial or high.
Now, those numbers are 86% and 94%, respectively.
A quick 🧵
2. Approaching half of the population living in an area with medium or high risk (based on hospital capacity and COVID hospital admission rates).
15% of the US population now lives in a "high" level area in which the CDC recommends masking in public indoor settings.
3. Here's where we are now based on both @CDCgov measures.
4. You can see the weekly progression of transmission in many states. So many places now have >90% of their populations in a high transmission area (including Florida).
5. Also seeing more and more people living in medium or high level areas, even with the hospital-based levels. But that progression was to be expected based on the more leading edge indicators: community transmission.
6. How transmission has changed over the past 3 months...
7. How hospitalization-based risk has changed over the past 3 months...
8. Here are the actual reported case rates by state since 3/1/22, based on data released yesterday.
9. And here are the actual hospitalization rates by state, based on data released yesterday.
This @HealthyFla report, released today, fills in some of the Florida gaps that, for some reason, the CDC was missing in calculating community risk levels.
1. As we approach the grim marker of #COVID19#deaths in the US, but hopefully have much brighter days ahead, I looked at the most current NCHS data thru May 7.
Below are age-adjusted COVID-19 mortality rates by state, with rankings and state comparisons to the national total.
2. Here's what those data look like by year. Obviously some dramatic diffs depending on time of the surge.
Many of the NE states had comparatively higher rates in 2020 (NY, NJ, CT, MA) due to the early pandemic surge, whereas the SE was hit hard in 2021 with a bad delta surge.
3. Below are age-specific mortality rates by age group. States can have very different results depending on the age group in question.
For example, #Florida is in the top 10 (best) for people 75 or older, but have comparatively worse rankings for younger age groups.
1. New county-level #risk indicators released by @CDCgov last night.
Here's your look at weekly #transmission levels since Feb 24.
After looking much better in March, we're continuing to see rates of newly reported cases increasing in most US regions.
2. But, as has been the case for a while, when basing risk level on #hospitalization rates and hospital capacity, at least visually, the story is very different.
3. This shows CHANGE in each metric yesterday compared to 1 week prior. Many more places worsening than improving.
14% of the population worsened on the hospital-based measure; only 1% improved.
23% of the population worsened on the transmission-based measure; only 6% improved.
1. Here are trends in new confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations among adults, by state, since March 1, 2022.
The number within each state cell is the % change in the past week.
Lots of ⬆️ recently.
2. Here's some specifics for #Florida hospitalizations.
Although numbers remain low relative to other times during the pandemic, we're now seeing more new adult admissions per day than we have in the past 2 mo.
Inpatient COVID census increasing, but more slowly (a good thing).
3. Here are trends in new reported COVID-19 cases, by state, since March 1, 2022.
The number within each state cell is the % change in the past week.
Note: each state has an independent y-axis to better visualize state-specific trends (NOT OPTIMAL TO COMPARE STATES).
Let's start with county-level: 1. community transmission & 2. hospital utilization for COVID
⬇️is a map of both indicators
- Levels on ⬅️
- Transmission on ➡️
Top portion is for THIS WEEK (Apr 14)
Bottom portion is for LAST WEEK (Apr 7)
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As you can see, the primary areas of concern are in the Northeast, where we are seeing high transmission, which is even resulting in the tough-to-move county levels to "medium"
And hospitalizations increasing in NY are causing some counties to enter the "high" level
2/
Where we stand at the county level as of April 14
Community levels
- 2980 (94.8%) low
- 150 (4.8%) medium
- 12 (0.4%) high
Community transmission
- 852 (27.1%) low
- 1491 (47.5%) moderate
- 415 (13.2%) substantial
- 380 (12.1%) high
3/