Edward Hunter Christie Profile picture
May 22, 2022 7 tweets 3 min read Read on X
1/7
It has been obvious for a long time that Gaullist ideas are rooted in how France bemoaned its loss of Great Power status. But if you're a mid-sized European nation worried about Moscow, you want reliable protection and no artificial irritants to relations with the U.S.
2/7
But how, then, should Europeans insure themselves against a possibly more demanding or overstretched U.S.? Security starts at home, at the national level. CEE Allies are moving towards this: strong national capabilities and defence budgets are the win-win approach.
3/7
In a healthy context of high defence investment, allied collaboration will be on a solid footing, with no resentment due to free riding. The other part is boots on the ground and skin in the game. Here, another France is coming into focus -
4/7
While criticism of #Macron's approach to #Moscow is largely justified, #France is currently doing a very good thing in leading the formation of a new #NATO presence in #Romania.
5/7
This is in effect a normalisation - France is now doing what the US, UK, Canada and Germany were already doing in Northeast Europe since 2016-17. And it should be welcomed.
6/7
Less welcome:
1-treating arms sales as some kind of existential issue
2-fantasies of a concert of Great Powers in which being at the top table is more important than Allies
3-foreign policy cynicism and unwillingness to call a spade a spade
7/7
Je conclus en français.
La France que l'on aime, c'est celle qui croit haut et fort en ses propres idéaux : Liberté, Égalité, Fraternité. Et donc qui pense: "Le régime de Poutine c'est une bande de salopards qui méritent une raclée. Ils touchent la Pologne, on les défonce."

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More from @EHunterChristie

Oct 21, 2024
1-11
Interesting logic. But UNSCR 1701 of August 2006 (yes, 18 years ago) was never implemented as concerns the obligations on Hezbollah, on the sponsors of Hezbollah, or on the hapless Lebanese government, which doesn't have de facto sovereignty precisely because of Hezbollah. Image
2-11
After UNSCR 1701 was adopted, it's fair to say that Israel was attacked from southern Lebanon an absurdly large number of times.
Quite the ceasefire implementation. Bravo UNIFIL! Image
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3-11
Here's a list of strikes against Israel from southern Lebanon just in the month of October 2023, which kicked off just after Israel had been attacked by Hamas in the south, of course. Image
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Read 11 tweets
Oct 16, 2024
1-10
True, the Third World War started in 2022.
For American colleagues to reflect: historians generally accept that WWII started on 1 September 1939, two years before the U.S. became a belligerent. And that's a European view. One could argue for July 1937 (Japan invades China).
2-10
The fact that very few Western commentators, let alone governments, currently label current events as a World War doesn't mean we're not in one right this minute, at least in the early phases of it.
3-10
The fact that the United States is not at war is certainly nice for the United States, and Biden types can pat themselves on the back for avoiding war. But that hardly means the war isn't already there. Burning, devouring, destroying, more and more.
Read 10 tweets
Oct 13, 2024
1-6
Veteran French diplomat G. Araud absolutely nails the Elon Musk problem in just one sentence.
In my experience it's not rare for highly competent people from other walks of life to think they understand matters of state policy - foreign or domestic - but to fail to do so.
2-6
It isn't rare to find people who refuse to understand that such matters need to be studied in their own right and that experienced professionals have a significant edge over them, thanks to their direct experience.
3-6
There is also the opposite phenomenon: there are amateurs who merely follow the news but somehow really get it and have very good judgment.
(But there are also many people who do that who have awful judgment, tbh.)
Read 6 tweets
Oct 12, 2024
If you invade a part of Russia, Putin doesn't do anything.
Ukraine has proven it. They're in the Kursk Oblast.
So much for Moscow having "red lines".
I'll go further. I don't believe the concept of "red line" applies especially well to Russian state behaviour.

1-13
The notion of "red lines" is a very American way of thinking. American foreign policy discourse often features that expression. But how often does it appear in the foreign policy discourse of other countries? Has anyone ever checked?

2-13
At a very generic level, of course, both states and individuals have limits beyond which events will lead to a reaction. So it's not a bad concept per se. But making it central to a wide set of strategic considerations is excessive.

3-13
Read 13 tweets
Oct 7, 2024
1-13
People who know how to think understood very quickly on October 7, at the latest on October 8, that the Hamas attack was from every perspective an act of war that needed to be responded to by going to war against Hamas with the aim of destroying it.
2-13
People who know how to think also remembered that Hamas was the state power and the de facto armed forces of Gaza. Hence, Israel had suffered an armed attack from the de facto country of Gaza.
3-13
People who know how to think knew that, given the political technology of Hamas & company to embed deliberately in built-up areas with civilians, Israel was going to kill a lot of Hamas, and also a lot of civilians. And that it would be partly lawful, but probably...
Read 13 tweets
Oct 3, 2024
1-11
Disagree. It is plausible that the Supreme Leader of Iran knew, from 3 Oct. 2023, that something big was going to happen - but not necessarily when.
It is perfectly possible to meet in person and tell top-level people of a plan, and no foreign intel service will find out.
2-11
Another problem with the post is that it somewhat misquotes the Haaretz article: the journalist doesn't claim Tehran didn't know about the attack, he claims Tehran didn't know the specific date.Image
3-11
Another good reason for believing that Tehran had advance knowledge is that Hamas would have to be insane NOT to tell its chief sponsor of a very major operation ahead, an operation so large that it would logically be tantamount to an act of war.
Read 11 tweets

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