Thread🧵consolidating updates from May 16 – May 22 on the large scale unit repositioning and resupply efforts ongoing in Ukraine. This thread will be incorporated into my primary thread on combat losses, which will be linked at the bottom once complete
It may be helpful for context to read the consolidation I put together previously:
May 15
It is likely that reserves immediately available on Ukraine’s border have almost entirely been committed. A US defense official notes that several BTGs were disbanded or combined
Russian Equipment and logistics
While it is believed that the potential for Russian military manufacturing has been significantly affected in the long run, Russian tank production continues
Of note is that while it is believe that Russian reserves of precision guided missiles are running quite low, the Pentagon has announced that it is no longer tracking the number of missile strikes
Following up on notes from prior news consolidations, Russian forces continue to receive crowdfunded gear, with new reports of such supplies being tracked in this thread
Captured Equipment
In recent weeks I have been incorporating figures for captured equipment into my larger thread on available forces using a conservative estimate of only 1/3 of captures being suitable for short term reuse
There have been efforts to track equipment loss accounting for capture over time. Note that this version includes all captures as additions to the opponent’s forces
Repair
Bulgaria announced an intention to assist Ukraine with the repair of heavy weaponry several weeks ago. Now Bulgaria has had a chance to review the expected assistance and is confirming its commitment to assist.
The new $40 billion US round of funding was approved by the Senate this week. Approximately $6 billion of these funds are in the form of security assistance to Ukraine. See these breakdowns for more details.
However, it is interesting that the US has been clear that while they want to give Ukraine the military advantage, they do not want their contributions to be seen as escalation
The announcement that Finland and Sweden would be participating in joint weapons purchases was interesting. Whether this might be connected to older systems being made available for use elsewhere is unknown
However, there are limitations on international military aid. The UK has announced that it may supply weapons to Moldova. It is assumed that some of these weapons might have been otherwise available to Ukraine
International assistance is also not unlimited, as Germany and the Netherlands have said that at this time they cannot provide more artillery than has already been announced
Russia has focused much of its efforts on attacking Ukrainian logistics capacity in the past several weeks, but these efforts have repeatedly failed to stop the flow of military aid
Training of Ukrainian personnel
There were several updates on training of Ukrainian personnel by the US in several locations on artillery, radar and drone systems last week. Training of Ukrainian personnel by Germany also began. There have been no significant updates this week.
May 22 Full update to thread🧵on estimates of #Russia and #Ukraine losses compared to available forces, using RU and UKR claims along with the best available #OSINT observations and estimates
Summary
OSINT % losses of Russian Committed (Russian total) vs Ukrainian total
Personnel 35.4(9.2) vs 11.8
Armor 41(11.6) vs 12
Tanks 42.4(20.8) vs 14.6
Artillery 15.6(4.5) vs 3.7
Aircraft 7.3(1.9) vs 13.7
Helicopters 14.9(4.4) vs 6.4
An ongoing thread to keep track of attempts to correct for errors in evaluating evidence of battle damage in connection with the Russian invasion of Ukraine
This is a good post to highlight the challenges in counting battle losses accurately given photographs taken from different angles and in different conditions
Another complicating factor is deliberate attempts to use lost equipment in multiple pictures to inflate the observed loss count. This is a Ukrainian example, but the same attempts have been made by both sides
May 15 Full update to thread 🧵 on estimates of #Russia and #Ukraine losses compared to available forces, using RU and UKR claims along with the best available #OSINT observations and estimates
Summary
OSINT % losses of Russian Committed (Russian total) vs Ukrainian total
Personnel 34.1(8.8) vs 10.3
Armor 40.1(11.2) vs 12.7
Tanks 41.5(20.2) vs 13.8
Artillery 15.3(4.4) vs 3.6
Aircraft 7.3(1.9) vs 16
Helicopters 14.6(4.3) vs 11.3
Thread🧵consolidating updates from May 9 – May 15 on the large scale unit repositioning and resupply efforts ongoing in Ukraine. This thread will be incorporated into my primary thread on combat losses, which will be linked at the bottom once complete
It may be helpful for context to read the consolidation I put together previously:
May 8
May 8 Full update to thread 🧵 on estimates of #Russia and #Ukraine losses compared to available forces, using RU and UKR claims along with the best available #OSINT observations and estimates
Here is the more detailed table so that you can see the values for captures and newly delivered equipment
Summary
OSINT % losses of Russian Committed (Russian total) vs Ukrainian total
Personnel 37.4(7.9) vs 8.9
Armor 49.8(10.7) vs 12.4
Tanks 51.8(19.1) vs 13.1
Artillery 14.9(4.2) vs 3.5
Aircraft 7.9(1.9) vs 16
Helicopters 17.1(4.3) vs 8.1