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May 23 • 41 tweets • 17 min read
Thread🧵consolidating updates from May 16 – May 22 on the large scale unit repositioning and resupply efforts ongoing in Ukraine. This thread will be incorporated into my primary thread on combat losses, which will be linked at the bottom once complete
It may be helpful for context to read the consolidation I put together previously:
May 15

May 8

May 1

April 24

April 17

April 10
Combat Strength
The US most recently (May 10) assessed Russian combat strength remains at 65-70% of what was committed at the beginning of the war.


Here is the history of US estimates of Russian combat strength

Of an estimated 120 Battalion Tactical Groups (BTGs) committed by Russia to the invasion, it is believed there are currently 106 BTGs in Ukraine

It is likely that reserves immediately available on Ukraine’s border have almost entirely been committed. A US defense official notes that several BTGs were disbanded or combined
The Russian ground forces committed to Ukraine are believed to represent 80% of combat ready total forces
A NATO spokesman has suggested that momentum has shifted to the Ukrainians


The Ukrainian Defense Minister has said that their goal is to increase the military to one million personnel
Russian Equipment and logistics
While it is believed that the potential for Russian military manufacturing has been significantly affected in the long run, Russian tank production continues

Russia has reportedly begun to shift its focus to artillery fire



This is reflected in a lower Russian sortie rate. However, this could be connected to a transition of air operations away from Mariupol

At the same time, it has been noted that Russia is increasingly relying on small unit movement, possibly due to logistics limitations



This greater reliance on artillery creates significant logistical demands
Of note is that while it is believe that Russian reserves of precision guided missiles are running quite low, the Pentagon has announced that it is no longer tracking the number of missile strikes

Following up on notes from prior news consolidations, Russian forces continue to receive crowdfunded gear, with new reports of such supplies being tracked in this thread

Captured Equipment
In recent weeks I have been incorporating figures for captured equipment into my larger thread on available forces using a conservative estimate of only 1/3 of captures being suitable for short term reuse
Here are examples of:
Captures repainted



LPR captures of Ukrainian equipment



Rare anti-air capture

More interesting examples:
An odd capture suggesting that every piece of equipment is being put into service



Captures on display in Kyiv



Captured Ukrainian boat with unknown potential for reuse

There have been efforts to track equipment loss accounting for capture over time. Note that this version includes all captures as additions to the opponent’s forces
Repair
Bulgaria announced an intention to assist Ukraine with the repair of heavy weaponry several weeks ago. Now Bulgaria has had a chance to review the expected assistance and is confirming its commitment to assist.

New Equipment for Ukraine
For an effort to keep an ongoing count of equipment supplied to Ukraine see
oryxspioenkop.com/2022/04/answer…

Here is another helpful collection of the data
ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-aga…
There has continued to be a high rate of delivery of military aid to Ukraine



Here is the list of total US military assistance provided to Ukraine as of May 10

Here is the cumulative value of US military assistance provided as of May 19
The final funds from the last US Congressional commitment of military aid were allocated


and this is what will be provide with the last $100 million
The new $40 billion US round of funding was approved by the Senate this week. Approximately $6 billion of these funds are in the form of security assistance to Ukraine. See these breakdowns for more details.

reuters.com/world/big-item…
However, it is interesting that the US has been clear that while they want to give Ukraine the military advantage, they do not want their contributions to be seen as escalation
International military aid continues. The next conference of western countries supplying arms to Ukraine is being held on May 23

This week, new military aid was announced by:
The UK


Australia


and Italy
The announcement that Finland and Sweden would be participating in joint weapons purchases was interesting. Whether this might be connected to older systems being made available for use elsewhere is unknown

However, there are limitations on international military aid. The UK has announced that it may supply weapons to Moldova. It is assumed that some of these weapons might have been otherwise available to Ukraine
International assistance is also not unlimited, as Germany and the Netherlands have said that at this time they cannot provide more artillery than has already been announced

Some observers have also expressed frustration at the apparently low pace of some previously announced weapons deliveries
Many western systems recently delivered to Ukraine are seeing heavy use already.
60% previously announced US artillery rounds have been delivered



More US artillery is already on its way to Ukraine
200 Dutch variants of the M113 fighting vehicle are now in use



Polish IMV delivered

Polish MANPADs in use



Polish tanks upgraded with explosive reactive armor before use

Czech RM 70 MLRS in use

Small arms, including M14s



Belgian small arms

The first footage of Brimstone missile strikes from Ukraine
More unusual equipment deliveries include electric bikes

Estonian Jeeps based on a design from South Africa


Iranian mortar systems apparently captured by the US in the middle east
Russia has focused much of its efforts on attacking Ukrainian logistics capacity in the past several weeks, but these efforts have repeatedly failed to stop the flow of military aid
As one example, the Russians struck a bridge outside Odessa for the fifth time in several weeks. Earlier strikes did not completely disable the bridge

Training of Ukrainian personnel
There were several updates on training of Ukrainian personnel by the US in several locations on artillery, radar and drone systems last week. Training of Ukrainian personnel by Germany also began. There have been no significant updates this week.
Here is the main thread on losses

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More from @HelloMrBond

Michael Bond Profile picture
May 23
May 22 Full update to thread🧵on estimates of #Russia and #Ukraine losses compared to available forces, using RU and UKR claims along with the best available #OSINT observations and estimates
Summary
OSINT % losses of Russian Committed (Russian total) vs Ukrainian total
Personnel 35.4(9.2) vs 11.8
Armor 41(11.6) vs 12
Tanks 42.4(20.8) vs 14.6
Artillery 15.6(4.5) vs 3.7
Aircraft 7.3(1.9) vs 13.7
Helicopters 14.9(4.4) vs 6.4
Read 66 tweets
Michael Bond Profile picture
May 23
An ongoing thread to keep track of attempts to correct for errors in evaluating evidence of battle damage in connection with the Russian invasion of Ukraine
This is a good post to highlight the challenges in counting battle losses accurately given photographs taken from different angles and in different conditions
Another complicating factor is deliberate attempts to use lost equipment in multiple pictures to inflate the observed loss count. This is a Ukrainian example, but the same attempts have been made by both sides
Read 10 tweets
Michael Bond Profile picture
May 16
May 15 Full update to thread 🧵 on estimates of #Russia and #Ukraine losses compared to available forces, using RU and UKR claims along with the best available #OSINT observations and estimates
Summary
OSINT % losses of Russian Committed (Russian total) vs Ukrainian total
Personnel 34.1(8.8) vs 10.3
Armor 40.1(11.2) vs 12.7
Tanks 41.5(20.2) vs 13.8
Artillery 15.3(4.4) vs 3.6
Aircraft 7.3(1.9) vs 16
Helicopters 14.6(4.3) vs 11.3
Read 72 tweets
Michael Bond Profile picture
May 15
Thread🧵consolidating updates from May 9 – May 15 on the large scale unit repositioning and resupply efforts ongoing in Ukraine. This thread will be incorporated into my primary thread on combat losses, which will be linked at the bottom once complete
It may be helpful for context to read the consolidation I put together previously:
May 8

May 1

April 24

April 17

April 10
Combat Strength
The US most recently (May 10) assessed Russian combat strength remains at 65-70% of what was committed at the beginning of the war.


Here is the history of US estimates of Russian combat strength to May 2

Read 51 tweets
Michael Bond Profile picture
May 15
A researcher studying Russian media noted discussion on Instagram of Russia opening military recruitment booths in some grocery stores
Mainstream media coverage of Russian refusals to fight
Public debate in Russia about how to persuade more to join the military
Read 12 tweets
Michael Bond Profile picture
May 9
May 8 Full update to thread 🧵 on estimates of #Russia and #Ukraine losses compared to available forces, using RU and UKR claims along with the best available #OSINT observations and estimates
Here is the more detailed table so that you can see the values for captures and newly delivered equipment
Summary
OSINT % losses of Russian Committed (Russian total) vs Ukrainian total
Personnel 37.4(7.9) vs 8.9
Armor 49.8(10.7) vs 12.4
Tanks 51.8(19.1) vs 13.1
Artillery 14.9(4.2) vs 3.5
Aircraft 7.9(1.9) vs 16
Helicopters 17.1(4.3) vs 8.1
Read 63 tweets

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