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May 23 • 66 tweets • 23 min read
May 22 Full update to thread🧵on estimates of #Russia and #Ukraine losses compared to available forces, using RU and UKR claims along with the best available #OSINT observations and estimates
Summary
OSINT % losses of Russian Committed (Russian total) vs Ukrainian total
Personnel 35.4(9.2) vs 11.8
Armor 41(11.6) vs 12
Tanks 42.4(20.8) vs 14.6
Artillery 15.6(4.5) vs 3.7
Aircraft 7.3(1.9) vs 13.7
Helicopters 14.9(4.4) vs 6.4
Scale of claims vs observations
Russian claims of Ukrainian loss % vs OSINT observed loss % (factor)
Personnel 13.4* vs 11.8 (1.1x) *now 5 weeks old
Armor + Tanks 73.8 vs 12.7 (5.8x)
Artillery 97.7 vs 3.7 (26.4x)
Aircraft 100+ vs 13.7 (7.3x)
Helicopter 100+ vs 6.4 (15.6x)
Scale of claims vs observations
UKR claims of RU(Cmtd) loss % vs OSINT observed loss % (factor)
Personnel 50 vs 35.4 (1.4x)
Armor 80.6 vs 41 (2x)
Tanks 78.5 vs 42.4 (1.9x)
Artillery 48.3 vs 15.6 (3.1x)
Aircraft 57.3 vs 7.3 (7.8x)
Helicopters 60.3 vs 14.9 (4x)
Methodology Changes
An astute observer noticed that the aircraft numbers that I was using for Ukraine represented their combat aircraft and helicopters but not their transport craft. However, 3/21 aircraft losses and the majority of helicopter losses are transports
Therefore, to keep the numerator and denominator on the same basis, I have added these craft in. This is 29 additional aircraft and 47 addition helicopters. This reduces the percentage losses for OSINT. The Russian claims still exceed 100% of the new total inventories
Note this interesting attempt to cross check OSINT observed losses against captured documents of Russian losses. This analysis suggests that for some weapons categories, the OSINT count of losses is capture nearly 80% of actual losses
Concept
When competing claims are made for losses, setting these claims against each other can narrow the range that actual numbers should lie within. Claims form a maximum and admissions form a minimum.
Examination of open source intelligence such as photos of equipment losses can further narrow the range or provide insight into which claims are closest to confirmable numbers. There are MANY limits to how much value this range has.
This is not a predictive tool. If you fail to make reference to open source evidence, you wind up with analysis like this
Setting the claimed and open source observed numbers into the context of total force size adds meaning. You probably did not know how many armored vehicles Russia has committed, other than “a lot”
Interpretation
Some sources update and data was collected at May 22, 11 pm EST. Not an expert. OSINT source relies on photo evidence and is an undercount. Local reporting is believed to report a smaller % of UKR losses.
Perform your own evaluation of the reliability of any information source you come across. I have tried to use reliable sources, but they do represent a range of reliability. Note that I used my own judgment in choosing among the personnel loss estimates
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intellige…
These numbers do not reflect motivation, leadership, terrain, weather, support of allies. These equipment numbers also do not reflect levels of crew training, equipment readiness or maintenance quality. All of which will have significant impact beyond what these numbers can show.
Other sources of error, such as losses behind enemy lines that cannot be photographed exist. There are some people attempting to put numbers on these unknown quantities, but I do not include them because they cannot be independently confirmed.
Major Sources 01/
Ukrainian claims of Russian losses
Major Sources 2/
Russian claims of Ukrainian losses
Major Sources 3/
OSINT equipment loss observations
@oryxspioenkop
RU losses: oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack…
UKR losses: oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack…

Heavy equipment deliveries to Ukraine
oryxspioenkop.com/2022/04/answer…

OSINT source often has a backlog of 200-300 items
Major Sources 4/
Ukrainian force estimates from The Military Balance 2022
Major Sources 5/
Russian force estimates from The Military Balance 2022. The stated Russian total force numbers from minusrus com are very similar to values from The Military Balance 2022 within 5%
Updates
Updates on the general force repositioning and equipment resupply efforts were getting to be too big to include in one thread. Please read them here. They form the backdrop within which personnel losses are considered
May 22 Updates
April 17 updates

April 24 updates

May 1 updates

May 8 updates

May 15 Updates
New this week is a good thread that considers the effects of poor storage on tank inventories
Consider the pictures of armored vehicles that are ‘in storage’. I have not included ‘in storage’ figures in any of the force totals. If you look at the pages under Major Source 5, you can see some of the ‘in storage’ figures for reference
Attempts to correct for known Errors
There are many challenges in counting losses of equipment. Here is an explanation of some of those challenges, along with attempts to correct for those errors.
Russia: Personnel
Personnel is the most complicated loss figure. It required its own thread to discuss factors. Please read it if you want to see where the numbers below come from
Russian Personnel 1

Russian Personnel 2
Russia: Personnel
The Mar 25 RU admissions set a minimum bound of 5,176 casualties. NATO estimates of 10k-15k KIA. US estimates of 10k KIA ‘conservatively’ on March 30. Ukraine is explicitly using a simple 3:1 wounded:KIA ratio. The admitted Russian ratio is 2.8:1 (Mar 25)
Russia: Personnel
Two expert observers believe that a ratio of KIA:wounded of 3.5:1 would be reasonable based on comparable data. I often have it said to me that 2:1 would be more appropriate. I will continue to use 3:1, being close to the expert number
Russia: Personnel
Kremlin spokesman Peskov also described that Russia has suffered “significant losses” of troops and that it was “huge tragedy” for Russia
Russia: Personnel
UKR claim 117,200 (29,050; 87,150; 1000) (KIA; wounded; POW)
117,200/231,438 = 50% cmtd
117,200/900,000 = 13% total

My evaluation is 20,500 Russian KIA

OS 83,000 (20,500; x3=61,500; 1000(per UKR))
83,000/234,438 = 35.4% cmtd
83,000/900,000 = 9.2% total
Ukraine: Personnel
Total regular force was 196,600 (IISS 2022) before invasion. Russia asserts that “at the start of the special military operation, the armed forces of Ukraine, together with the National Guard, numbered 260,200 servicemen”
ria.ru/20220325/gensh…
Ukraine: Personnel
"We have brought the additional reserves of more than 100,000 people. Currently, the whole country joined the efforts against the aggressor," - Motuzyanyk, Ukraine's Defense Ministry spokesman, March 26, 2022 as per Anadolu Agency
aa.com.tr/en/russia-ukra…
Ukraine: Personnel
I consider the addition of 100,000 new personnel to the Ukrainian forces to be plausible, as Ukraine has 900,000 people with prior military service within the last 5 years. Therefore, I increased the Ukrainian Personnel figure by 100,000 to 296,600 on April 24
Ukraine: Personnel
Ukraine has set a goal for increasing their military to one million, but no time line for that goal was set out and it is unclear how quickly it could be reached
Ukraine: Personnel
Some Russian observers admit that Ukraine is raising new units and certainly think that one million Ukrainian military personnel is possible


Ukraine: Personnel
In an interview, President Zelensky said that Ukraine has 700,000 people fighting for it. This would be a considerable increase over the previous number of approximately 300,000 as at March 26.
Ukraine: Personnel
I believe it could be interesting to track the provision of basic equipment for personnel as a proxy for Ukrainian force expansion and will continue to monitor it
Ukraine: Personnel
We are seeing further evidence of new units using newly donated equipment
Ukraine: Personnel
Here is further detail on the newly formed units
forbes.com/sites/davidaxe…
Ukraine: Personnel
The newly formed armored units may represent up to tens of thousands of personnel. However, it is not clear what armored equipment would be available for the several hundred thousand personnel it would take for Ukraine to have 700,000 at the moment
Ukraine: Personnel
While it is possible that this many personnel could include those in training, primarily for light infantry roles, I will not yet update the Ukrainian personnel and will await further details or evidence in the coming week.
Ukraine: Personnel
US defense officials still believe Russia has the numerical advantage on the battlefield, which should inform an evaluation of the new Ukrainian personnel claim
Ukraine: Personnel
Ukraine appears to be increasingly using Territorial Defence forces in combat roles


25 out of 32 Territorial Defense brigades have seen combat
Ukraine: Personnel
On April 15, President Zelensky admitted to 2,500-3,000 Ukrainian soldiers killed and 10,000 wounded to set a new minimum bound of 13,000 casualties.
A US official said on March 10 that 2,000-4,000 Ukrainian troops have been killed
cbsnews.com/news/ukraine-r…

In mid-April, U.S. intelligence agencies estimated that 5,500 to 11,000 Ukrainian troops had been killed, and more than 18,000 wounded
nytimes.com/2022/05/01/wor…
Ukraine: Personnel
On April 16, the Russian Ministry of Defense made a new claim for Ukrainian personnel losses of 23,367 killed. There was no estimate of wounded. A previous Russian statement claimed 16,000 wounded. I am combining these statements
facebook.com/watch/?v=33233…
Ukraine: Personnel
There was an update on losses in the Ukrainian National Guard, but the update is not for the forces as a whole and cannot be used to draw very many conclusions about losses more widely

Ukraine: Personnel
I have been using a possibly outdated number of 500 Ukrainians held as POWs. The UK believes up to 1,700 may have been taken POW from Mariupol. I have increased my POW figure to 2,000.
Ukraine: Personnel
In an interview, President Zelensky said that Ukraine was suffering between 50-100 losses per day in the Donbas region.
Noted observer Rob Lee believes that if Russian and Ukrainian losses are comparable, Ukraine is better able to account for them given its more advanced mobilization
Ukraine: Personnel
Note that some losses are more concentrated in those with specialized skill sets. In an interview, President Zelensky noted that 90% of helicopter pilots flying relief flights to Mariupol did not return
Ukraine: Personnel
Zelensky’s April 15 admission of losses is still below the US estimate from more than a month ago. I will provide a personal estimate since official estimates appear to be outdated. My estimate is intentionally conservative to yield a larger possible range
Ukraine: Personnel
RU claim
Russia has not made any claims of Ukrainian losses since April 16
39,867 (23,367,000; 16,000; 500)
39,867/296,600 = 13.4%

My evaluation is 8,250 Ukrainian KIA

OS 35,000 (8,250; x3=24,750; 2000)35,000/296,600 = 11.8%
Ukraine: Aircraft
RU claim 165/125 = 100+%
OS Photo 20/125 = 16%
OS Expert* 70/125 = 56%
*‘roughly 55 operational fighter jets’, quoting Dave Deptula, Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies nytimes.com/2022/03/22/wor…
IISS starting point of 125 implies a loss of 70 jets
Here is video evidence to show that Ukraine still operates
Jets


Helicopters
Here is the March 19 thread


Here is the March 25 thread

Here is the April 3 thread


Here is the April 10 thread

Here is the April 17 thread
Here is the April 24 thread

Here is the May 1 thread


Here is the May 8 thread

Here is the May 15 thread
In case you want to play with the OSINT data, here is a link to a data scraper by @mountainherder
@Lee__Drake produces time series graphs and has several other interesting tools for numerical analysis in connection with the war available at this Github page
Ongoing visual breakdown of RU tank losses by @hippke
For a different style of visual comparison of the raw losses, check out the work by @SirBib
Additional explanatory note
Additional explanatory note
Additional explanatory note. Thanks to @crimsonshadowmk for the discussion on this

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May 25
The Russian Central Bank continues to publish updates on Russia's foreign currency reserves. The net balance varies quite a bit from week to week, but we can see that it was flat from mid-March through mid-April and has been negative for a month at an average outflow of ~$1B/day ImageImage
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An ongoing thread to keep track of attempts to correct for errors in evaluating evidence of battle damage in connection with the Russian invasion of Ukraine
This is a good post to highlight the challenges in counting battle losses accurately given photographs taken from different angles and in different conditions
Another complicating factor is deliberate attempts to use lost equipment in multiple pictures to inflate the observed loss count. This is a Ukrainian example, but the same attempts have been made by both sides
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May 23
Thread🧵consolidating updates from May 16 – May 22 on the large scale unit repositioning and resupply efforts ongoing in Ukraine. This thread will be incorporated into my primary thread on combat losses, which will be linked at the bottom once complete
It may be helpful for context to read the consolidation I put together previously:
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Here is the history of US estimates of Russian combat strength

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Michael Bond Profile picture
May 16
May 15 Full update to thread 🧵 on estimates of #Russia and #Ukraine losses compared to available forces, using RU and UKR claims along with the best available #OSINT observations and estimates
Summary
OSINT % losses of Russian Committed (Russian total) vs Ukrainian total
Personnel 34.1(8.8) vs 10.3
Armor 40.1(11.2) vs 12.7
Tanks 41.5(20.2) vs 13.8
Artillery 15.3(4.4) vs 3.6
Aircraft 7.3(1.9) vs 16
Helicopters 14.6(4.3) vs 11.3
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May 15
Thread🧵consolidating updates from May 9 – May 15 on the large scale unit repositioning and resupply efforts ongoing in Ukraine. This thread will be incorporated into my primary thread on combat losses, which will be linked at the bottom once complete
It may be helpful for context to read the consolidation I put together previously:
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April 24

April 17

April 10
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The US most recently (May 10) assessed Russian combat strength remains at 65-70% of what was committed at the beginning of the war.


Here is the history of US estimates of Russian combat strength to May 2

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A researcher studying Russian media noted discussion on Instagram of Russia opening military recruitment booths in some grocery stores
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