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May 24 • 12 tweets • 11 min read
Historically, #BTC tends to bottom at or below the 200-MA (orange)

The 200-MA thus tends to offer opportunities with outsized ROI for $BTC investors (green)

Wicks below it are the point of peak opportunity

So how much does BTC wick below the 200-MA?

A thread

#Crypto #Bitcoin
1.
Downside wicks below the 200-MA represent peak financial opportunity for long-term #BTC investors

But these downside wicks also represent Extreme Fear and Maximum Pessimism in market sentiment

In early 2015, $BTC downside wicked below the 200-MA by -14%

#Crypto #Bitcoin
2.
In late 2015, #BTC downside wicked below the 200-MA by -14% once again

#Crypto #Bitcoin
3.
In 2017/2018, #BTC actually formed a generational bottom precisely at the 200-MA support

No downside wicks below the MA occurred

However in March 2020, $BTC downside wicked below the 200-MA by -28%

#Crypto #Bitcoin
4.
Historically, #BTC tends to perform downside wicks below the 200-MA

These $BTC downside wicks represent peak financial opportunity for long-term investors

These wicks tend to be -14% to -28% deep

#Crypto #Bitcoin
5.
At the time of this thread, the 200-MA for #BTC represents a price point of ~$22000

Price has not yet reached the 200-MA support

$BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin
6.

In fact, #BTC would need to drop at least an additional -28% from current prices to bottom at the 200-SMA

$BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin
7.
If #BTC reaches the 200-MA support in the coming months...

Could $BTC perform a downside wick below it?

Since 2015, the 200-MA has been touched on 4 occasions to form generational Bear Market bottoms

And 3 out of 4 of those Bear Market bottoms ended with downside wicking
8.
#BTC tends to wick -14% to -28% below the 200-MA

And since the $BTC 200-MA now represents the price point of ~$22000...

A -14% downside wick below the 200-MA would result in a ~$19000 Bitcoin

#Crypto #Bitcoin
9.

And if #BTC were to repeat the March 2020 downside wicking depth below the 200-MA

$BTC would revisit the ~$15500 price point

#Crypto #Bitcoin
10.
#BTC is slowly approaching the 200-MA

Historically, the 200-MA tends to offer fantastic opportunities with outsized ROI for long-term $BTC investors (green circles)

Should BTC indeed reach the 200-MA support...

It would be wise to pay attention

#Crypto #Bitcoin
11.

I usually share this type of level-headed, unbiased analysis in the Rekt Capital Newsletter

If you liked this thread - you'll love the newsletter

Feel free to sign up for regular cutting-edge insights on #BTC and Altcoins:

rektcapital.substack.com

$BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin

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More from @rektcapital

Rekt Capital Profile picture
May 20
#BTC is down -40% since the Death Cross occurred in early Jan '22

History suggests that whenever a Death Cross occurs, #Bitcoin experiences deeper downside

Now that one has occurred, what could we potentially expect?

Here's a thread with my analysis about the $BTC Death Cross:
1.
A bullish Golden Cross occurs when the 50 EMA (blue) crosses OVER the 200 EMA (black)

Golden Crosses precede lots of upside in #BTC's price (green)

A bearish Death Cross occurs when the 50 EMA crosses UNDER the 200 EMA (red)

Death Crosses precede lots of downside for $BTC
2.
But notice how it takes a significant amount of time for #BTC to actually perform a bearish Death Cross (red)

When $BTC peaked in 2013, it took 135 days for the Death Cross to occur

That's over 4 months

And during those 4+ months...

#Bitcoin dropped -73%
Read 26 tweets
Rekt Capital Profile picture
Feb 28
#BTC needs to hold this Higher Low for this potential Ascending Triangle to remain in play

$BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin Image
Of course, in the meantime we shouldn't ignore the possibility of a series of Lower Highs forming on #BTC inside this Ascending Triangle (dashed green diagonal)

$BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin Image
But even if this series of Lower Highs develops...

#BTC could still reasonably be able produce an upside wick into the ~$43000 Ascending Triangle top resistance, just like in previous orange circles

(Should price indeed soon rebound from this Higher Low)

$BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin Image
Read 6 tweets
Rekt Capital Profile picture
Dec 9, 2021
The 50-Week EMA tends to figure as support during #BTC Bull Market retraces

Essentially, this EMA rescues the $BTC Bull Market from ending

Recently, BTC has rebounded from the 50 EMA once again

Here's a thread on why the 50 EMA is worth paying attention to...

#Crypto #Bitcoin
1.
Here's a #BTC price chart from late May 2021

Historically, the 50 EMA figures as a valuable support across #BTC Bull Markets

Whenever support is kept at the 50 EMA, the #Bitcoin Bull Market continues

#Crypto
2.
The 2013-2014 Bull Run is a great example of how #BTC can experience a deep, devastating crash but still maintain the 50 EMA as support

Though $BTC doesn't actually touch the 50 EMA on the crash, this EMA proved useful in preserving the bullish momentum after the crash
Read 13 tweets
Rekt Capital Profile picture
Sep 23, 2021
Historically, September tends to be an unremarkable month for #BTC

But despite downside volatility this month, $BTC still has a very good chance of ensuring further upside in the coming months

Here's what #Bitcoin needs to do to maintain bullish bias going forward

A thread...
1.

Over the past several weeks in the Rekt Capital Newsletter, we’ve been looking into a wide-variety of perspectives on #BTC

One of those views was the Macro Flagging Structure, first introduced back in early August...
2.

Since then #BTC has traversed the entirety of the Macro Flag...

Before ultimately reaching the very top of said Flag, experiencing a picture-perfect rejection from ~$52800:
Read 14 tweets
Rekt Capital Profile picture
Jun 23, 2021
Is #BTC in Wyckoff Accumulation?

Or is $BTC still in Wyckoff Distribution?

A thread with my thoughts:
A few days ago, #BTC was breaking out from this wedging structure:

The #BTC breakout from the wedging structure resulted in a fake-out (yellow)

This means the bottom of the Wyckoff Distribution Range remains as a technically unconfirmed breakdown

Which is why one can still make a case for Macro Wyckoff Distribution

$BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin
Read 7 tweets
Rekt Capital Profile picture
Jun 18, 2021
Here's what I found really interesting when analysing the #BTC Death Cross across cycles:

"Once #BTC performs a Death Cross, there tends to be a similar retrace to the retrace that preceded the crossover"

Quick thread to illustrate these periods...

#Crypto #Bitcoin
1.

When $BTC peaked in 2013, BTC had already dropped -73% before the Death Cross

After the Death Cross, #Bitcoin retraced an extra -71% before the 2015 bottom
2.
This pre-Death Cross vs post-Death Cross retracement symmetry extends to other #BTC cycles

When $BTC peaked in 2017, price had dropped -70% before the Death Cross

Once the Death Cross happened though, #Bitcoin retraced an extra -65% before bottoming in late 2018
Read 10 tweets

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