The #BTC Bottoming Out Candle 3 year is coming to an end, according to Four Year Cycle principles

But a new Confirmed Trend Reversal Candle 4 is set to form next

So what should we pay attention to in 2024?

A thread...

$BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin 1.

Historically, #BTC's price action has formed Four Year Cycles

Each candle represents a year

Candle 1 sees $BTC reach its Bull Market Peak

Candle 2 is where #Bitcoin is in a Bear Market

Candle 3 is where BTC bottoms out

Candle 4 is where BTC recovers & confirms a new trend reversal

$LINK has rejected from its Range High resistance

Price is down -13% since then

But if #LINK were to drop into the Range Low support...

Price would need to drop an additional -20% to the downside

#Crypto #Chainlink $LINK rejected at its Range High resistance and crashed -31% right into the Range Low support

#LINK holding support at the Range Low thus far

Continued price stability could set price up for a revisit of the Range High with time

#Crypto #Chainlink

The Litecoin Halving is scheduled for August 2023

What historical price tendencies does $LTC showcase prior to its Halving and after its Halving?

A thread...

#BTC #LTC #Crypto #Litecoin 1.

$LTC tends to rally quite strongly prior to its Halving

Prior to Halving 1, #LTC bottomed 122 days and rallied +820%

Prior to Halving 2, LTC bottomed 243 days and rallied +550%

#BTC #Crypto #Litecoin

The #BTC Bear Market is coming to an end, according to Four Year Cycle principles

But a new Bottoming Out Candle 3 is set to form next

So what should we pay attention to in 2023?

A thread...

$BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin 1.

Historically, #BTC's price action has formed Four Year Cycles

Each candle represents a year

Candle 1 sees $BTC reach its Bull Market Peak

Candle 2 is where #Bitcoin is in a Bear Market

Candle 3 is where BTC bottoms out

Candle 4 is where BTC recovers & begins a new trend

For the 1st time ever...

#BTC RSI brokedown from an area that has historically preceded outsized Returns On Investment for long-term investors

Past reversals from around this area include Jan 2015, Dec 2018 & March 2020

All Bear Market bottoms

A thread

$BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin 1.

Overall, the #BTC Monthly RSI is forming a red Wedge

$BTC Bull Market Tops occur at the RSI Wedge Top

And Bear Market Bottoms occur at the RSI Wedge Bottom

BTC has lost this market structure, breaking down from the Bear Market Bottom area (green)

#Crypto #Bitcoin

Here are arguably two of the biggest obstacles to global adoption:

1. Privacy 🥷

2. Security🔒

But there are projects that are pushing us in the right direction

One of which is @GetBlockWallet, a self-custodial wallet designed to keep you safe on the blockchain

A thread... 1.

I've been testing BlockWallet for the past weeks & have enjoyed how simple & intuitive it is

They've recently launched a major update that includes custom network support & swaps with 0% fees

You might've even seen my comparison video to MetaMask:

https://twitter.com/rektcapital/status/1567543445459189762

#BTC tends to confirm uptrends when it breaks above the blue 50-week EMA

$BTC tends to confirm maximum financial opportunity when it reaches & breaks down from the black 200-week EMA

Is the BTC bottom in already or is there more downside to come?

A thread...

#Crypto #Bitcoin 1.

What's interesting about these two #BTC Weekly EMAs is the space between them

And how this space can help investors identify whether a $BTC bottom is close

In 2015, the first bottom was 150% away from the blue 50 WEMA

The final bottom was ~50% away from the blue 50 WEMA

#BTC RSI is now entering a period that has historically preceded outsized Returns On Investment for long-term investors

Previous reversals from this area include January 2015, December 2018, and March 2020

All Bear Market bottoms

A thread...

$BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin 1.

Overall, the #BTC Monthly RSI is forming a red Wedging Structure

$BTC Bull Market Tops occur at the RSI Wedge Top

And Bear Market Bottoms occur at the RSI Wedge Bottom

BTC is slowly approaching the Bear Market Bottom area (green)

#Crypto #Bitcoin

Is #BTC performing Macro Double Bottoms at the 200-week moving average?

A thread...

$BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin 1.

Let's first analyse these #BTC Macro Double Bottom periods

In 2015, $BTC formed an Accumulation Range at the 200-week MA

The accumulation range was ~60% wide and was home to price for some 287 days

The first Macro Double Bottom occurred during this period

#Crypto #Bitcoin

This May, #BTC lost a key Monthly support (green)

In fact, this area has flipped into new resistance (red)

$BTC has since reached this current 1M support (orange)

Outlined are all major Monthly supports down to $10K

What do they have in common with Death Crosses?

A thread... 1.

A key principle exists when it comes to #BTC Death Crosses:

"More often than not, the depth of a $BTC correction pre-Death Cross is similar to the retrace depth post-Death Cross"

Here is a quick summary of historical retraces prior to and after #Bitcoin Death Crosses:

Historically, #BTC tends to bottom at or below the 200-MA (orange)

The 200-MA thus tends to offer opportunities with outsized ROI for $BTC investors (green)

Wicks below it are the point of peak opportunity

So how much does BTC wick below the 200-MA?

A thread

#Crypto #Bitcoin 1.

Downside wicks below the 200-MA represent peak financial opportunity for long-term #BTC investors

But these downside wicks also represent Extreme Fear and Maximum Pessimism in market sentiment

In early 2015, $BTC downside wicked below the 200-MA by -14%

#Crypto #Bitcoin

#BTC is down -40% since the Death Cross occurred in early Jan '22

History suggests that whenever a Death Cross occurs, #Bitcoin experiences deeper downside

Now that one has occurred, what could we potentially expect?

Here's a thread with my analysis about the $BTC Death Cross: 1.

A bullish Golden Cross occurs when the 50 EMA (blue) crosses OVER the 200 EMA (black)

Golden Crosses precede lots of upside in #BTC's price (green)

A bearish Death Cross occurs when the 50 EMA crosses UNDER the 200 EMA (red)

Death Crosses precede lots of downside for $BTC

#BTC needs to hold this Higher Low for this potential Ascending Triangle to remain in play

$BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin Of course, in the meantime we shouldn't ignore the possibility of a series of Lower Highs forming on #BTC inside this Ascending Triangle (dashed green diagonal)

$BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin

The 50-Week EMA tends to figure as support during #BTC Bull Market retraces

Essentially, this EMA rescues the $BTC Bull Market from ending

Recently, BTC has rebounded from the 50 EMA once again

Here's a thread on why the 50 EMA is worth paying attention to...

#Crypto #Bitcoin 1.

Here's a #BTC price chart from late May 2021

Historically, the 50 EMA figures as a valuable support across #BTC Bull Markets

Whenever support is kept at the 50 EMA, the #Bitcoin Bull Market continues

#Crypto

Historically, September tends to be an unremarkable month for #BTC

But despite downside volatility this month, $BTC still has a very good chance of ensuring further upside in the coming months

Here's what #Bitcoin needs to do to maintain bullish bias going forward

A thread... 1.

Over the past several weeks in the Rekt Capital Newsletter, we’ve been looking into a wide-variety of perspectives on #BTC

One of those views was the Macro Flagging Structure, first introduced back in early August...

Is #BTC in Wyckoff Accumulation?

Or is $BTC still in Wyckoff Distribution?

A thread with my thoughts: A few days ago, #BTC was breaking out from this wedging structure:

https://twitter.com/rektcapital/status/1404199850049212421?s=20

Here's what I found really interesting when analysing the #BTC Death Cross across cycles:

"Once #BTC performs a Death Cross, there tends to be a similar retrace to the retrace that preceded the crossover"

Quick thread to illustrate these periods...

#Crypto #Bitcoin 1.

When $BTC peaked in 2013, BTC had already dropped -73% before the Death Cross

After the Death Cross, #Bitcoin retraced an extra -71% before the 2015 bottom

The 21 Weekly Exponential Moving Average tends to be a vital reference point for #BTC

Keeping the 21 WEMA as support means $BTC will continue its Bull Market

Losing the 21 WEMA often means BTC will be entering a Bear Market

Here's a thread with my thoughts about the 21 WEMA: 1.

Historically, the 21 WEMA (green) supports a Bull Market uptrend for #BTC

Keeping this EMA as support on pullbacks has been vital to sustaining bullish momentum for $BTC

But there have been periods where the 21 WEMA has been briefly lost as support before being recovered:

#BTC is on the cusp of a potential Death Cross

But could the #Bitcoin Death Cross invalidate the Stock to Flow model?

Here's a thread with my thoughts about the $BTC Death Cross in the context of the Stock to Flow model: 1.

Whenever a Death Cross occurs, #Bitcoin experiences deeper downside

In 2014, a Death Cross preceded an extra -71% drop

In 2017, an extra -65% drop

In 2019, an extra -55% drop

For more info about the Death Cross, checkout my previous thread:

https://twitter.com/rektcapital/status/1399735515767787521?s=20

#BTC is on the cusp of a potential Death Cross

Whenever a Death Cross occurs, BTC experiences deeper downside

How likely is it that this Death Cross occurs for $BTC?

And if it does - what should we potentially expect?

Here's a thread with my thoughts about the Death Cross: 1.

A bullish Golden Cross occurs when the 50 EMA (blue) crosses OVER the 200 EMA (black)

Golden Crosses precede lots of upside in #BTC's price (green)

A bearish Death Cross occurs when the 50 EMA crosses UNDER the 200 EMA (red)

Death Crosses precede lots of downside for $BTC

Can the 50-Week EMA save the #BTC Bull Market?

A thread on why the 50 EMA is worth paying attention to...

#Crypto #Bitcoin 1.

The 50 EMA (blue) and the 200 EMA (black) are integral parts of any Golden Cross or Death Cross on the Daily timeframe

On the Weekly timeframe however, these two EMAs run alongside in parallel, never actually crossing over