Faisal Islam Profile picture
May 26 11 tweets 7 min read
NEW

UK-EU trade war would be “shocking” & “unnecessary” Taoiseach Micheál Martin tells BBC at #WEF22 saying he did not want to detail and “hopefully” will not have to contemplate EU tariffs against UK exports… urging negotiators to “get in the tunnel” bbc.co.uk/news/business-…
NEW

Full excl @BBCNewsnight interview with Taoiseach @MichealMartinTD at 2230 on @BBCTwo … sneak preview…

On who is threatening a trade war
Why object to red-green channel
On what is responsible for fall in GB-Ireland trade
& “enormous help” of a veterinary agreement #WEF2022
NEW: @MichealMartinTD says to me on @bbcnewsnight
“hasn't been engagement by UK on the detail…ECJ wasn't, or isn't core issue in terms of unionism”
Red & Green channels sound plausible?
“get involved in discussions. you can't, ignore and not reciprocate (sefcovic plans)”
Taoiseach:
“Britain signed up to this deal…”
But you knew that it wouldn’t be acceptable to unionism?
“There are mechanisms in the Protocol to resolve issues that haven’t been fully used, and if they had we might not be in this situation” #newsnight
“regret to say, I'm not so sure people thought through implications for Good Friday Agreement when Brexit was put forward”
But net result of these threats is that unionism might be turned away from GFA & Protocol?
“only threat here” is the UK one to tear up an international deal
Taoiseach: “Nobody wants a trade war… it would be shocking and totally unnecessary”
But what are we talking about? The EU targeting politically sensitive UK exports?
“Im not going to get into the detail of that” hopefully won’t have to contemplate… #newsnight
Martin: “get down there & negotiate..get trade people involved”
Think UK Govt playing fair?
“I don’t. I don’t think this is fair. Unilateral legislation not correct behaviour. When countries sign an international treaty it should mean something” not discarded in “cavalier manner”
Taoiseach: “I told Uk PM, leaders of France & Germany don’t want minute checks on everything going into NI, want to resolve this”

“We’re not overplaying our hand, hardly playing our hand.

Britain our closest neighbour and friend… no agenda in Ireland, to pick a row with UK”
Me: GB-ROI trade has been hit

Taoiseach:
“has been hit a bit somewhat. And I think that's because …the UK perhaps was not as well prepared for it.”

So you’re blaming that on Britain?
“not all of it, but it's just a fact Brexit means the disruption of trade” #Newsnight
Taoiseach: “we should work out a veterinary agreement that would help enormously. there are ways of solving this. no doubt about that. I've been at pains to say this to my good friends of the British government that there are ways to solve this, if the will is there to solve it.”
NEW Taoiseach @MichealMartinTD : “I haven't been clear that the will is actually there to resolve this [from UK]. And as I say, we're not clear on the landing zone in terms of what would satisfy the UK Government in the end.”
#Newsnight

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More from @faisalislam

May 26
Going to do some threads reflecting dozens of off and on record meetings with business leaders, world leaders bankers, boxers at WEF … on UK-EU trade, on Russia-Ukraine, and first… some utter energy confusion among everyone here: Image
1/ 1.Gulf nations laughing at the idea that big European nations want to switch off from Russia and instead by LNG, and yet at the same time say they only want it for 5 years, because its dirty carbon etc. Demanding long term 10-20 year deals.
2/ 2.Top bankers acknowledging privately that they are now constrained from funding fossil fuels directly but are loaning money to private equity, who then make investments in rejected/ divested fossil fuels earning incredible returns.
Read 9 tweets
May 23
NEW:

BBC exclusive interview with Ukraine’s First Deputy PM Yulia Svyrydenko:

Calls for international community to secure “safe passage” for food export vessels in a “corridor” out of Odessa, to help Ukraine and avoid world hunger

… /1
NEW /2
Ukraine DPM:
“it would take us 5,6,7 years to export all these agricultural yields by [rail/road]. So right now it’s extremely important for us to unblock the seaports

“We need a guarantee from partners, of course it’s a defence guarantee, a security guarantee” #WEF2022
NEW /3

$300b to reconstruct Ukraine required… Shd Russia pay?

“Of course. Of course. We need a clear procedure to get
frozen assets..shd take them and fund reconstruction. No sense finding other sources.

Otherwise why freeze the yachts, apartments, football clubs?”
#WEF2022
Read 6 tweets
May 21
Interesting to see what some of the PM’s advisors, who have also been advising the roundly defeated Morrison campaign, think might be the lessons, if any, of this for their UK strategy…
limits to any parallels, but intriguing a well funded climate activist formed a party of independent mainly women “teals” is picking off seats helping defeat Morrison Govt..

And a late text message campaign on border migrant pushbacks hasn’t worked

abc.net.au/news/2022-05-2…
Read 5 tweets
May 18
NEW Chancellor speaks to biz leaders @CBItweets
“the economic situation is extremely serious. A perfect storm of global supply shocks is rolling through our economy simultaneous global demand shifting last year from services to goods and exacerbating supply chain bottlenecks”
NEW: Chancellor @CBItweets: “those inflationary pressures are starting to weigh on growth… The next few months will be tough…. And so as the situation evolves, our response will evolve. We stand ready to do more .” Image
Sunak: “At same time, we need to be careful….At time of severe supply restrictions, an unconstrained fiscal stimulus does risk making problem worse by pushing up prices still further, embedding high inflation expectations & creating a vicious cycle of even higher interest rates”
Read 4 tweets
May 18
NEW UK Inflation hits 40 year high on the CPI measure of 9%
Retail Prices Index - the older target measure - has now hit double digits - 11%. Highest since Feb 1982
This is what a 40 year high looks like in context - as I said they’ve had to recreate an artificial historical time series, because it is the highest reading on the measure since it was created. NB target is 2%.

bbc.co.uk/news/business-…
Read 12 tweets
May 16
BLOG: Ahead of the Bank of England Governor’s appearance in front of MPs - the predictable cost of living blame game, and questions about its 25 year independence record as inflation heads to a 40 year high… bbc.co.uk/news/business-…
Double digit inflation not good, its bad, says Governor Bailey to MPs, says at peak, “80% of this is down to energy and tradable goods” and the BoE cant predict wars, and the issue is a series of shocks one after the other without gaps….
… Bailey warns on some “very weak numbers” coming out of China as a result of its latest pandemic lockdowns… says it is being hit more than in first round…
Read 10 tweets

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