Thread by @AltcoinSherpa

Overall Trade Analysis: $NEAR- This was 1 of my biggest realized losses I've taken. I'll explain where I went wrong and my idea for the trade/management. Entry average: $14, Exit: $8.50 and $6

Total loss was relatively big for me.

#NEAR

Why I took this trade: I initially started to average into $NEAR around January. Had a good initial entry around $11ish and took some profits at $16. The idea of the trade was based around another L1 doing ok. 3AC just put some $ into the ecosystem and the L1 narrative worked

I liked the sharding tech and I messed around Aurora at the time too. I thought that VCs needed exit liquidity so they would pump price higher + price was also holding up relatively well to the market. I had successful L1 trades w. $AVAX and $SOL in the past too, so why not this?

This was going to be 1 that I was going to hold for a little while because I thought that the ecosystem was going to grow similar to the other L1s. I was still of the opinion that the market was relatively ok and that we wouldnt see true destruction until later this year, like Q3

As price initially dipped, I started to buy at $16, $12, $10 and some at $8.50. This was around February where the market started to die a bit more. I'm fine to take the drawdown and I was also of the opinion that $BTC would exit pump to 55k ish around this time , giving me ...

a good opportunity to exit as alts might have had one last relief pump. Another one of the catalysts to NEARs growth was USN. LUNA/UST was doing so well at this time (RIP) that USN was big.

Well, alts DID have a relief pump; I was just too greedy to execute my plan accordingly. My plan was to take profits at 19 and then rebuy lower to compound my position. This has served me really well in the past and I have made a lot more coins by doing this.

I ended up getting lots of sells at 19! Got that part right. Too bad I fucked up the second part and rebought at like 18.50 or something obscene because I had fomo.

Anyways, during this time, btc still looked worse and worse. NEAR clearly lost its market structure and I was looking for some sort of btc or near relief pump to get out of my position but it never came. I ended up selling a good chunk around early May at $8.50 when BTC lost 37k.

I was mad about this but still was exposed to NEAR. I finally derisked last week and had to think about my decisions. Some random thoughts:

-I still like NEAR as a project, I like Aurora and I still think it has potential from a tech perspective. It's going to be really hard though in the bear for new ecosystems to flourish since everything is flocking back to ETH. I still might rebuy later on in a few months

-Even if you like a project, you can still sell it and rebuy more coins later on. That's how you accumulate. I've done the same with btc and ETH a lot in the past, the only 2 tokens I really like longer term.

https://twitter.com/AltcoinSherpa/status/1508476055505543169

-I had plenty of chances to get out of NEAR. I actually was of the opinion everything was going to go much lower when btc started to lose its MS cleanly weeks ago but I kept thinking we would see a relief pump. We still might yet but it's also better to stay careful rn.

-I was actually fairly confident that NEAR price was going to be much lower in the future due to all of the macro stuff going on + the way btc is looking but I was still thinking I could get some relief pump and a better price than what I had. It never really came.

-I'm exposed enough with my BTC&ETH core holdings, I don't usually touch those as much. Everything else I cut for the most part.

-There is a time to HODL shit (ie bull market) and a time to just do very quick trades (currently). I clearly didn't adjust well this time.

-My hodling abilities gives me more profits than most (ie. with avax and sol) but I also ate my medicine here with regards to NEAR. Bad bad situation that could have been prevented.

-Cutting an underwater bag feels very nice and it's a giant weight lifted off your shoulders

-It sucks to lose $ but it's a good lesson for me. I have been traveling/not very in tune w. the market lately and it really shows (hence why I have been doing some more passive trades).

I'll learn from this experience and get better!