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May 30 • 54 tweets • 24 min read
Thread🧵consolidating updates from May 23 – May 29 on the large scale unit repositioning and resupply efforts ongoing in Ukraine. This thread will be incorporated into my primary thread on combat losses, which will be linked at the bottom once complete
It may be helpful for context to read the consolidation I put together previously:
May 22
May 15

May 8

May 1

April 24

April 17

April 10
Combat Strength
The US most recently (May 10) assessed Russian combat strength remains at 65-70% of what was committed at the beginning of the war.


Here is the history of US estimates of Russian combat strength

Of an estimated 120 Battalion Tactical Groups (BTGs) committed by Russia to the invasion, it is believed there are currently 110 BTGs in Ukraine

Here is the recent history of Russian BTG counts
The Russian ground forces committed to Ukraine are believed to represent 80% of combat ready total forces


There is a steady flow of fresh Russian troops into Ukraine
US defense officials would not use the term stalemate to describe the situation in eastern Ukraine
Expert observers still believe that the military balance trends in Ukraine’s favor:


but that it is reasonable to ask whether both sides are beginning to experience exhaustion
Russian Equipment and logistics
Ukraine claiming to have destroyed 30% of Russia’s modern tanks



This number is higher than in estimates provided this week by the Pentagon, but the loss to make up is still significant

The Russians have begun to transfer in older tanks, including T-72Bs


And even T-62s
Whether out of fear of the effectiveness of Ukrainian weapons, or increased protectiveness of limited hardware, we are now seeing more improvised armor applied even to Russian tanks

The use of this older equipment is not a good sign. New analysis of captured Russian equipment shows a significant reliance on foreign chips. Catalogues are being developed about what parts are used by Russia, in order to further tighten export controls

A lack of foreign electronics may not prevent use of older equipment, but it will result in inferior performance.
Here a drone dropped a grenade, missing its target



and here a fixed wing Russian drone missed its bombing run

These manufacturing limitations are also believed to be reducing Russian weapons sales

One interesting connection to watch is this observation of potential supply of some parts to Russia from Iran

Captured Equipment
In recent weeks I have been incorporating figures for captured equipment into my larger thread on available forces using a conservative estimate of only 1/3 of captures being suitable for short term reuse.
Here are captured examples of:
Older BMP-1s



BMP – 3s


T-72s

A heavy mortar



MT-LP and autocannon



DNR using captured Stugna missiles

The claimed capture of a switchblade



and the claimed capture of a Phoenix Ghost (reported to be a detonated switchblade)

Former artillery boat "Akkerman" was captured by the Russians and received a new tail number "201" after being abandoned by crew in the port of Berdyansk in March
Another case of multiple claims of capture, whether intentional or accidental. This is among the reasons that I am currently only counting 1/3 of captures as likely in reuse.

New Equipment for Ukraine
For an effort to keep an ongoing count of equipment supplied to Ukraine see
oryxspioenkop.com/2022/04/answer…

Here is another helpful collection of the data
ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-aga…

There is also a list now being maintained on Wikipedia
en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_f…
The second of an ongoing series of meetings was held for nations to coordinate military aid to Ukraine. There were also several new participants, including Austria, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Colombia, Ireland, and Kosovo

ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/349…
Many new announcements of aid were made at the conference
To facilitate the matching of requests for supplies with international donors, a “Craigslist for weapons” has been set up



Which is a detail from this longer profile of the Nerve Center directing military aid bound for Ukraine
foreignpolicy.com/2022/05/24/nat…
Despite the new pledges of military aid, the Ukrainian Minister of Foreign Affairs says that it is “too early to say Ukraine has what it needs”.

The most significant pledges this week came from the Czech Republic and included helicopters, tanks and rockets



Here are the type of Czech helicopters that may go to Ukraine

While the number Czech tanks was not immediately reported, there have been plausible claims of 60 tanks in a so-called ring trade with Germany

This number is supported by the fact that the Czech Republic is reported getting 15 leopards as replacement



and is negotiating with Germany about the purchase of up to 50 new Leopard tanks in the current version 2 A7+

deutsch.radio.cz/ruestungsdeal-…
However, note that this plan may not go as reported, as there is controversy over Germany’s willingness to provide tanks to Poland to replace those that Poland has already delivered to Ukraine

Polish tanks have already been spotted in new units in Ukraine

There was speculation that the US was considering giving Ukraine long range rocket systems such as HIMARS



It was reported that Ukraine requested up to 500 HIMARS

It is now appearing likely that such long range systems will be given to Ukraine


Apparently following discussion between the US and Ukraine about the uses of longer range systems and the risks of their use to strike into Russia

In news of other heavy equipment, Ukraine is now able to field unusual mixes of vehicles in its convoys

Soon to be joined by Lithuanian M113s



Canadian APCs



and Wolfhounds from the UK

Unfortunately we are also seeing the first cases of destruction of donated vehicles, such as this Australian Bushmaster

As the many photos of the pock marked landscape show, much of the fighting is being done with artillery

There were several videos of the French CAESAR in Ukraine
Photos


First video


High quality CAESAR video

Observers have noted that the CAESARs have been modified to coordinate with the battlefield management systems being used by the Ukrainians. Details are available in French in the embedded tweet

Norway announced it would provide M109 self propelled guns



It was suggested that M109 may also be provided by the US

Poland is providing 18 AHS Krab artillery pieces



Italian FH70 artillery was seen in use



It was reported that the Czech military aid would also include Dana howitzers

Finnish artillery rounds were spotted that had not been previously announced



20,000 artillery shells will be provided by Canada

In small arms, US Mk19 grenade launcher is now in Ukraine



and has even been truck mounted

M2 machine guns have also been spotted, likely provided by Italy



along with 50 cal ammo from Spain

There was an update on delivery of US heavy equipment that was previously promised

with several updates on the Switchblades, of which 220/300 have been delivered



along with the first video of a Switchblade launch



and the first video of a Switchblade strike

Denmark pledged to provide Harpoon anti-ship missiles



and it was believed that the UK will now provide Harpoons as well
However, Israel continues to reject Spike missile transfer requests

In an unprecedented event, Lithuania held a private fundraiser and raised $5 million to purchase a Bayraktar drone for Ukraine



In other significant news, there were reports of disassembled aircraft ready to be transferred to Ukraine



with reasonable speculation being made as to their type and source

Russia has focused much of its efforts on attacking Ukrainian logistics capacity in the past several weeks, but these efforts have repeatedly failed to stop the flow of military aid

Attacks against Ukrainian domestic military manufacturing continue, but with mixed success
Training
New Zealand is sending trainers to work with Ukrainians in the UK


Training has begun on harpoon missiles promised by Denmark


The US has restated that it is not conducting training within Ukraine
Repair
There have been several updates on Ukrainian domestic repair capacity and the offers of repair assistance to Ukraine from Bulgaria and the Czech Republic in previous weeks. There are no updates this week.

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More from @HelloMrBond

Michael Bond Profile picture
May 30
May 29 Full update to thread🧵on estimates of #Russia and #Ukraine losses compared to available forces, using RU and UKR claims along with the best available #OSINT observations and estimates
Summary
OSINT % losses of Russian Committed (Russian total) vs Ukrainian total
Personnel 35.7(9.7) vs 6.9
Armor 42(12.4) vs 12.2
Tanks 43.2(22.2) vs 15.3
Artillery 15.4(4.6) vs 4
Aircraft 8.1(2.1) vs 16.3
Helicopters 15.2(4.5) vs 8.3
Read 59 tweets
Michael Bond Profile picture
May 25
The Russian Central Bank continues to publish updates on Russia's foreign currency reserves. The net balance varies quite a bit from week to week, but we can see that it was flat from mid-March through mid-April and has been negative for a month at an average outflow of ~$1B/day
Note that the foreign currency reserves in the graph above above represent the available reserves. $320B has been subtracted from the values in the table to reflect reserves frozen overseas. Additional details can be found in this report

cbr.ru/Collection/Col…
Note that European energy purchases from Russia are adding inflow of ~$1B/day in the last few months. This may be dwindling as several countries have reduced their purchases or had energy flows cut by Russia. If such purchases were eliminated, the net outflow would be ~$2B/day
Read 5 tweets
Michael Bond Profile picture
May 23
May 22 Full update to thread🧵on estimates of #Russia and #Ukraine losses compared to available forces, using RU and UKR claims along with the best available #OSINT observations and estimates
Summary
OSINT % losses of Russian Committed (Russian total) vs Ukrainian total
Personnel 35.4(9.2) vs 11.8
Armor 41(11.6) vs 12
Tanks 42.4(20.8) vs 14.6
Artillery 15.6(4.5) vs 3.7
Aircraft 7.3(1.9) vs 13.7
Helicopters 14.9(4.4) vs 6.4
Read 66 tweets
Michael Bond Profile picture
May 23
An ongoing thread to keep track of attempts to correct for errors in evaluating evidence of battle damage in connection with the Russian invasion of Ukraine
This is a good post to highlight the challenges in counting battle losses accurately given photographs taken from different angles and in different conditions
Another complicating factor is deliberate attempts to use lost equipment in multiple pictures to inflate the observed loss count. This is a Ukrainian example, but the same attempts have been made by both sides
Read 10 tweets
Michael Bond Profile picture
May 23
Thread🧵consolidating updates from May 16 – May 22 on the large scale unit repositioning and resupply efforts ongoing in Ukraine. This thread will be incorporated into my primary thread on combat losses, which will be linked at the bottom once complete
It may be helpful for context to read the consolidation I put together previously:
May 15

May 8

May 1

April 24

April 17

April 10
Combat Strength
The US most recently (May 10) assessed Russian combat strength remains at 65-70% of what was committed at the beginning of the war.


Here is the history of US estimates of Russian combat strength

Read 41 tweets
Michael Bond Profile picture
May 16
May 15 Full update to thread 🧵 on estimates of #Russia and #Ukraine losses compared to available forces, using RU and UKR claims along with the best available #OSINT observations and estimates
Summary
OSINT % losses of Russian Committed (Russian total) vs Ukrainian total
Personnel 34.1(8.8) vs 10.3
Armor 40.1(11.2) vs 12.7
Tanks 41.5(20.2) vs 13.8
Artillery 15.3(4.4) vs 3.6
Aircraft 7.3(1.9) vs 16
Helicopters 14.6(4.3) vs 11.3
Read 72 tweets

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