Dave Keating Profile picture
May 31 6 tweets 4 min read
#EUCO summit over, here are the conclusions:
Leaving #EUCO summit, 🇫🇷President #Macron tells journalists the exemptions for 🇭🇺🇸🇰🇨🇿 in the 🇪🇺ban on #RussianOil agreed last night are minimal.

He vows the exemptions will be time limited. But there is no such time limit in the deal. Leaders expected to revisit next month.
Macron says he doesn't rule out 🇪🇺 following up with a #RussianGas ban. “We have to keep credibility and this strategic ambiguity is also useful”

But privately energy industry insiders & EU sources tell me at this time there is almost no chance of an EU embargo on Russian gas.
Dutch PM #Rutte tells journalists he's satisfied by level playing field guarantees stopping cheap Russian pipeline gas coming to Hungary from flooding 🇪🇺 single market.

"The countries making use of the exemptions for pipeline oil aren’t allowed to export it to other countries"
There is particular concern that Port of #Rotterdam, which can no longer import 🇷🇺oil & will have to import more expensive other oil, will face competition from 🇷🇺pipeline oil coming via #Hungary.

Rutte says the Commission will monitor situation to make sure that's not happening
Yes, this is only a partial ban on #RussianOil covering 🇪🇺 2/3 of imports.

But, because Germany & Poland have pledged not to use the exemption and to phase out all Russian oil at the same time as everyone else, it means only 10% of imports will remain: that by pipeline to 🇭🇺🇨🇿🇸🇰

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More from @DaveKeating

May 30
This is a compromise that will only ban #RussianOil imports by ship, but keep imports via pipeline. That was the only way they could overcome the veto from Hungary's Viktor #Orban.

It is a political agreement, it will still need to be translated into a legal text in coming days.
Breaking the impasse on the #OilEmbargo means that the entire sixth package of 🇪🇺sanctions against Russia can now be adopted.

It includes a #SWIFT ban on Sbrebank, banning 3 Russian broadcasters and new sanctions on individual Russians.
Read 18 tweets
May 30
Leaders now arriving for the #EUCO summit in Brussels.

The big question journalists will be asking: are we really close to a Russian #OilEmbargo agreement today, and what are the details of this compromise?
Entering #EUCO, 🇪🇺President @VonDerLeyen pours cold water on the rumours we are close to a #RussianOil ban deal.

"My expectations are low that it will be solved in the next 48 hours, but I'm confident that thereafter there will be a possibility."
Now entering: the man of the hour.

Will #Orban drop his veto on the EU's #RussianOil embargo today?
Read 12 tweets
May 30
BREAKING: We are close to an agreement on an 🇪🇺 ban on #RussianOil, and the aim is now to adopt this embargo at today's #EUCO summit, according to an EU official. Now added to agenda.

But we could still be in for some fireworks as Orban may hold out a veto on political agreement
This last-minute compromise understanding reached by national diplomats just now would exempt all Russian oil imports that come via pipeline. The ban would only apply to seaborne Russian oil (2/3 of Russian imports).

It also includes some additional temporary exemptions.
It's important to point out that this agreement among diplomats at technical level doesn't necessarily mean we'll have an agreement at political level among prime ministers and presidents at #EUCO today.

We could be in for some last-minute surprises.
Read 4 tweets
May 29
Twitter poll: Which of these four European capitals has the *least* fun nightlife?
Well the poll yielded what I expected based on peoples' preconceived notions. But I've lived in all 4 cities - IMHO 49.7% of you are wrong and 26.6% are right.

There's no question London & Berlin have better nightlife than Brussels. But Brussels nightlife is more fun than Paris
Paris is amazing & beautiful by day, but by night IMHO it disappoints. Yet it benefits from an outdated reputation from past decades as a swingin' place.

I've had many friends visit Paris expecting fantastic nightlife and end up disappointed with what they encounter.
Read 7 tweets
May 29
I do not recognise the America I see depicted in European media. Coverage is normalizing & embarrassingly reverential. Few here want to talk about the real systemic problems of their protector.

Europeans should get their 🇺🇸 news from 🇺🇸 sources like this. nytimes.com/2021/12/15/opi…
Or this
Read 5 tweets
May 25
Breaking: 🇪🇺Commission right now proposing new law to confiscate and sell Russian assets in the union.

This is a big step beyond just freezing the assets, which is what they've done already.
The rules would target 🇷🇺 assets skirting EU sanctions, as part of a larger framework on targeting all assets from organised crime.

"Organised crime has become more international," says VP @MargSchinas. "70% of organised criminal groups now operate in more than one country"
There are existing rules on seizing assets profiting from crime but they are fragmented and not uniformly enforced, 🇪🇺VP Schinas says.

Given the Russian situation, they need to be rapidly updated because there is no time to lose, he says.
Read 5 tweets

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