Thread by @amcnerd

For a whe now I've been pondering HOW to post about the #Russia-#Ukaine War and its global economic & Geopolitical implications.

Its not easy covering such a huge topic using twitter's 40 word limit. Crucial is "WHERE" and "WHEN" to start?

Where = the Middle East
When = 1973

https://twitter.com/amcnerd/status/1530894160429039616

It's 1973 and the young state of Israel was fighting the combined Armies of Egypt & Syria (the 4th Arab-Israeli War). Military aid from the USA however gave Israels the upper hand. Meanwhile, in Riyadh, 1500km south of Jerusalem, King Faisal of Saudi Arabia was worried. Faisal...

...didn't join other Arab states to attack Israel. But he couldn't stand idle while Israel wiped 2 Arab countries off the map. He was aware that the US the main supporter of Israel. So he & other Arab countries placed an Oil Embargo on the US & some of its allies.
It was a risky

...decision that could backfire, but Faisal was desperate & Oil was the only "weapon" he had. The embargo led the 1973 energy crises. There was 300% rise in global Oil prices, while in the US, the long queues at fuel stations kept getting longer.
In🇳🇬 Nigeria, fuel scarcity and..

...queues are almost a monthly ritual. To US leaders & citizens however, it feels like armageddon. Some 10,000km west of Riyadh, the effects of the embargo was acutely being felt. US President Nixon tasked his National Security Adviser, Henry Kissinger, to resolve it. Kissinger

...sent a telegram to Faisal, saying, if the Oil embargo was not lifted, US would use military force. Having read the telegram, Faisal's only response was "khair insha Allah" loosely translated as "Good, if God wills it." Kissinger now went in person to further pressure the King.

Kissinger had a fearsome reputation as a tough negotiator. An expert in Machiavellian RealPolitik, he had fought in the 2nd World War and thus never afraid of War. He would go on to serving 2 US presidents as National Security Adviser & later Secretary of State. Involved in a...

..a military coup in Chile & gave approval for Argentina's military dictatorship for its "dirty war". Ironically, in 1973 he won the Nobel Peace prize for efforts in ending the Vietnam war (the same year he was threatening to bomb Saudi Arabia.
His threats & tricks didn't work..

...on Faisal. In response to the threats, Faisal said "... the Americans can't live without thier cars & electricity". If the US bomb the Oil fields, the Arabs can easily return to thier former desert way of life. Faisal grew up without oil or electricity. He had been sent on...

...1st diplomatic mission to London at the age of 14. From age 16, he was fighting beside his father in the wars that created the current Kingdom of Saudi Arabia - for years, sleeping in tents, living on only dates & camel's milk.
Threats had no effect on the now 60yr old Faisal

Kissinger had to backdown & the US turned to more "polite" means to try lifting the embargo.
The embargoes had shown that Oil could now be used as a weapon of War.

That was 1973.

So whats the connection of all this histoey with a 2022 War between Russia & Ukraine?

Answer: ...

Answer:
Fast forward almost 50 years (to May 2022). A now 90 year old Kissinger is invited to give a speach at the prestigious Davos Summit - a get together of business & political leaders of the world's wealthiest & influencial countries. In 2022 Davos was dominated by the War..

And so was Kissinger's speach. But his words were in sharp contrast to the views of all other speakers & Western world leaders. They were direct & equally controversial. He gave a diplomatic way out of the War. Ukraine to be ready to give up parts of their territory to Russia...

...in exchange for Peace. Kissinger is certainly no coward and he's never been shy to use force to get his aims. Now at the ripe age of 90, he still retains sufficient mental capacity to see the war is unwinnable for Ukraine. All the leaders @ Davos already know this, but he's...

...the only one with the guts to say it out loud in public.
Interestingly, as far back as 2014, Kissinger warned about NATO's eastward expansion. Arguing that even discussions on Ukraine joining NATO will likely lead to War with Russia.
The warnings were ignored by most leaders..

And we find ourselves at the closest point to a Nuclear World War since the 1962 Cuban Missile crises.

Historians have noticed that History has a strange way of repeating itself in circular patterns. I believe we are again in a mini circle. Kissinger was ignored in 2014. Now...

...8 years later Kissinger is advising, and from all indications, he'll again be ignored. In fact, right thier at Davos, Ukraine President Zelenskyy speaking after Kissinger, accused him of living in the past. Reminding him that he's in a 2022 summit, not a "meeting in 1939".

Zelenskyy went on to state he will not cede any territory to Russia no matter what.
Well, the war is now over 90 days old in what the Russians are calling "Phase II" of their "Special Military Operation in Ukraine"
We can already see that no other war in the 21st Century has..

..has so drastically affected our economic and Geopolitical systems on a such global stage. And it seems to have no predictable end in sight.

Kissingers 2014 warnings were contained in a Washington Post article, confusingly titled
"To Settle the Ukraine Crises, Start at the End"

Let me borrow & paraphrase his words.
To Understand the Ukraine Crises, Start at the Beginning.

So in next threads, we shall do just that.

This is the end of Phase 1 of this Russo-Ukraine thread.
Up next,
Phase 2 - Starting at the Beginning
Phase 3 - 100 Days of War (Who is not losing)
Phase 4 - Oil & Food (Effects on Nigeria).
#UkraineWar #Putin #Nigerian #Oil #Wheat

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