Share this page!

Enter URL or ID to Unroll

You can paste full URL like: https://x.com/threadreaderapp/status/1644127596119195649
or just the ID like: 1644127596119195649

How to get URL link on X (Twitter) App

  1. On the Twitter thread, click on or icon on the bottom
  2. Click again on or Share Via icon
  3. Click on Copy Link to Tweet
  4. Paste it above and click "Unroll Thread"!
  5. More info at Twitter Help
Jason L. Salemi, PhD, FACE Profile picture
@JasonSalemi
Jun 3, 2022 • 19 tweets • 7 min read • Read on X
Scrolly
1. Here's where we stand as of June 2 on the two @CDCgov measures of county-level risk.

LEFT: hospitalization-based measure

RIGHT: transmission-based measure

A recap 🧵 on how things are changing nationally and then in my home state, FL.

I finally remembered to use #alttext! Two county-level maps are shown of the US. On the left shows
2. Transmission is still pronounced with only 2% of Americans living in a county that is not classified as "substantial" or "high" level of transmission. This is a series of vertical bars showing the distribution o
3. Here are those same weekly trends, but instead of national totals, this is by state (% of population living in various level transmission areas) This is a series of vertical bars showing the distribution o
4. Here's the national story concerning the hospitalization-based measure.

At this level of granularity, no real change from last week - 55% of people live in counties classified as "medium" or "high" risk levels.

But, there are definite regional patterns that are different. This is a series of vertical bars showing the distribution o
5. This map focuses on how counties have CHANGED regarding their risk level according to the hospitalization-based measure.

Blue is an improvement, red a worsening.

Finally, the NE is showing improvement, but other areas (NC, FL, CA, midwest, etc) worsening. This is a county-level map of the US. Counties are colored b
6. Here are those weekly trends in the hospitalization-based measure, by state (% of state population living in various risk levels) This is a series of vertical bars showing the distribution o
7. Unfortunately, in Florida this week, 3 in 4 people live in a county classified as a "high" level, according to the hospitalization-based measure. You can see the pronounced increase over the past 4 weeks. This is a series of vertical bars showing the distribution o
8. Transmission in Florida did not change much because pretty much every medium or large sized county is classified as high transmission. This is a series of vertical bars showing the distribution o
9. Here are Florida's metrics, side by side Two county-level maps are shown of Florida. On the left show
10. How transmission has changed over the past 3 months...
11. How hospitalization-based risk has changed over the past 3 months...

You can begin to see the expansion of the high-risk levels from the northeast to, well, "elsewhere"
12. Here are the actual hospitalization rates by state, based on data released yesterday.

Notice that downturn in many areas in the northeast...

...unfortunately increases in many other states This is a series of line graphs showing trends in adult admi
13. And trends in reported cases by state.

Again, notice that downturn in the northeast... This is a series of line graphs showing trends in average da
14. Here is some perspective on adult admissions rates for "confirmed COVID-19", by state, compared to nearly the entire pandemic timeline. This is a series of overlaid line graphs showing trends in a
15. Below are also age-specific COVID-19 mortality rates, by state, for all age groups 35+. State-level rates for younger age groups were less statistically reliable to calculate rate ratios (mainly for smaller states).

Dark blue & rank close to 1 = good.
Red & high # = bad. There are 6 state-level maps displayed, one for each of 6 ag
16. And here are age-adjusted mortality rates, by state, for each year of the pandemic (and overall).

Dark blue & rank close to 1 = good.
Red & high # = bad. There are 4 state-level maps displayed, one for each of the
17. In summary:

- Improvement in hospitalization-based risk level in many counties in the northeast

- In other areas (including FL, CA, NC, MO) had their risk levels worsen.

- Still other states had a blend of improving and worsening counties
18. We will learn more granular, county-level info about FL on this evening's release of the @HealthyFla biweekly report.

In the meantime, feel free to visit my dashboard for the data covered in this thread.

covid19florida.mystrikingly.com
Head back to the beginning of this thread 👇

Feel free to share/retweet!

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with Jason L. Salemi, PhD, FACE

Jason L. Salemi, PhD, FACE Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @JasonSalemi

Jason L. Salemi, PhD, FACE Profile picture
Sep 26, 2023
Brief COVID update

When speaking with NPR last week, I said the plateauing of hospitalizations for 3 weeks made me feel like a downturn was coming.

In FL, the data are suggestive of improvements in the # of people being hospitalized w/ COVID.

1/ Image
The state-specific trends in the COVID hospital census since June 1 also suggest we are seeing a recent decrease in FL (dk purple), the US as a whole (black), and a number of states.

Yes, FL still has among the highest rates, but we also have one of the oldest populations.

2/ Image
If we indeed see a prolonged decrease in COVID hospitalization census, many of the largest states, who have been below previous pandemic years, will start their decrease right as they approach (but do not exceed) 2022 rates.

3/ Image
Read 11 tweets
Jason L. Salemi, PhD, FACE Profile picture
May 29, 2023
Sorry for the delay everyone, a lot going on personally. But I have modified my dashboard to accommodate the CDC reporting changes.

My site focuses on:
1) Hospitalization-based county risk levels
2) Detailed hosp trends
3) Deaths

with links out for wastewater, variants, vax

1/
The "Risk Indicators" page is similar to the older page, but the data upon which indicators are based has changed. There are no longer "risk levels" and "transmission levels", rather levels based exclusively on "confirmed" COVID hospital admission rates over the prior 7 days.

2/ ImageImageImageImage
The "Hospitalizations" page has not changed much. Still starts out with a Florida-centric look and then gives a lot of state- and age-specific census and admission numbers, rates, and rankings.

3/ ImageImageImageImage
Read 14 tweets
Jason L. Salemi, PhD, FACE Profile picture
Feb 24, 2023
It's been a while since I've done a #COVID update.

These are national weekly @CDCgov "community levels" based primarily on hospitalization rates.

This past week has been the "best" since April of last year with <1% of the population living in a high-level county.

1/ Image
Of course, this comes with the following caveats according to the CDC, with likely underestimation of levels in Hawaii and Mississippi, and overestimation in several counties in Georgia and Arizona.

2/ Image
Transmission levels are likely to be grossly underreported, but as we look at them over time, are showing modest improvement (LEFT).

This is in agreement with the regional wastewater monitoring data, which also shows improvements over the last 6 weeks (RIGHT).

3/ ImageImage
Read 12 tweets
Jason L. Salemi, PhD, FACE Profile picture
Dec 2, 2022
1/ Updated my #COVID19 dashboard - wanted to do a quick thread on some clearly emerging trends.

covid19florida.mystrikingly.com
2/ Below are adult inpatient hospital census rates for each state since May 1, 2022. Only "confirmed" (as opposed to suspected) COVID hospitalizations are included.

The orange and red coloring suggests recent increases over the past week. Image
3/ But for context, below are the inpatient census stats for adults throughout the pandemic - for most states, we remain well below the worst parts of the pandemic (not that that should be the bar we are trying to avoid). Image
Read 11 tweets
Jason L. Salemi, PhD, FACE Profile picture
Oct 16, 2022
1/ I've continued to see graphics like the one below served as evidence that COVID vaccines do not work.

Why? Because the NUMBER of COVID-19 deaths among vax people is nearly the same (or even more than) among unvaccinated people.

Quick 11-tweet thread on why this is misleading
2/ I'm going to keep this SIMPLE. This is NOT about infection-acquired immunity vs. vax-acquired immunity. This is just about counts vs. rates.

Assume that vax efficacy is 90% in people 65+.

Monthly COVID mortality rates:
- not vaccinated (20 per 100k)
- vaccinated (2 per 100k)
3/ Assume 3 different vax realities among seniors in the US, and assume pop of 50 million.

Vax rates of 5%, 50%, and 95%.

In the figure, under each scenario, I show the vax vs. non-vax distribution of:
1. the population
2. COVID deaths
Read 12 tweets
Jason L. Salemi, PhD, FACE Profile picture
Oct 14, 2022
@cmzimmer1803 - a few thoughts

1/ We absolutely should be concerned with the changing proportions of variants that are ESTIMATED to be circulating in recent weeks.

Due to their characteristics and increasing make-up of new cases, the pose a threat.
2/ Clearly, part of our genomic surveillance efforts are to have TIMELY information when more concerning variants are increasing in relative prevalence. In this case, it appears we lost some time (I was wondering why those variants were not yet showing up).
3/ BUT, I don't tend to jump to an accusation of something nefarious.

The beginning of the footnote states that variants circulating <1% are grouped into "other". Image
Read 6 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

Send Email!

:(