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Jun 3 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Calling Rodolfo Hernández the “Trump of #Colombia” seems off to me. Here, I see more parallels with all-over-the-map populists like AMLO or Bukele. And if Hernández wins, US-Colombian relations could resemble current relations with Mexico or El Salvador…

responsiblestatecraft.org/2022/06/03/how…
…by which I mean: the Biden administration distances itself from the president and civilian leadership, even as it pursues the closest possible military-to-military relationship. Which isn't great.
(Of course, the "military-to-military relationship being stronger than the civilian relationship" thing is even more likely if Petro wins.)
Una rápida (y nada perfecta) traducción al español: adamisacson.com/spanish-versio…

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More from @adam_wola

Adam Isacson Profile picture
Jun 2
A brief thread about migration trends in #Mexico, based on Mexican government data updated through April, and through May for asylum seekers.

5 months into 2022, Mexico has already received its 3rd-highest annual total of asylum requests. At this pace 2022 will be 2d after 2021.
New asylum applications in #Mexico have declined for two consecutive months, though.

This is from the latest summary by Mexico's refugee agency @comar_sg, posted today: gob.mx/comar/articulo…
Far fewer people applying for asylum in #Mexico this year are from #Haiti, compared to last year. #Honduras is back in the number-1 position, followed by #Cuba.
Read 8 tweets
Adam Isacson Profile picture
May 17
Thank you. Weird blowup of my profile pic aside, I'd be glad to talk about all of these.
“Over 750k KNOWN gotaways”

Over what time period? The CBP budget request says USBP apprehended or turned back 82.6% last year. Getting to 90% would require huge $.

If got-aways are 750K, then the total migrant number would be over 4 million, plus POEs??

dhs.gov/sites/default/… Image
“Over 1 mil released”

This is people seeking protection. Mostly voluntarily. ~460K fled dictatorships in Cuba, Nica, Ven, Rus. Plus Ukr. Send them back?

That’s a humanitarian crisis. But not a security disaster. Nor is it new: 600K under Trump in 2019.

Read 8 tweets
Adam Isacson Profile picture
May 17
Come on. I've visited 4 of Border Patrol's 9 US-Mexico border sectors since March, and there's just no "disaster zone."

Border communities are going about their lives completely unaffected by the elevated number of migrants, half of whom are being expelled anyway.
Your workload is elevated if you work at a shelter, practice asylum law, or recover remains of migrants who've fallen off the border wall, drowned, or dehydrated.

Border Patrol agents, too, are busy processing asylum—a job that doesn't really require a uniform, gun, or badge.
Unless you work with protection-seeking migrants, it's business as usual in all US border towns I've visited (San Diego, Del Rio, Eagle Pass, Laredo, McAllen, Brownsville).

Schools, supermarkets, restaurants, malls...open and normal. "Disaster zone" talk is politicized nonsense.
Read 4 tweets
Adam Isacson Profile picture
Sep 22, 2021
0/33 Here's a late-night thread about the border right now. This is me talking, not a deliberated WOLA consensus. I have blind spots—we all do—and welcome good-faith corrections.

tl;dr: Even today's high levels of family and asylum-seeking migration are manageable without drama.
1/33 Many Democrats, including those who support immigration reform, see images like this one and worry. They see themselves losing ground to the Greg Abbotts and Ted Cruzes. Even among Latino constituents who had voted reliably Democratic.

2/33 Why would they be losing ground among moderate voters who don't consider themselves anti-immigrant? Because these images look chaotic. They look disorderly.
Read 35 tweets
Adam Isacson Profile picture
Jun 23, 2021
When @VP Harris visits the US-Mexico border at El Paso on Friday, she'll be in a city with a rich, vibrant, experienced community of experts, advocates, and humanitarians. I hope she gets to talk with them.

Here are a few I've had the great pleasure to know. 1/11
.@LasAmericasIAC is an incredibly active organization that represents and offers affordable legal advice to asylum seekers, among other human rights advocacy. Many of its clients have been subject to "Remain in Mexico" and Title 42 expulsions. 2/11
.@HopeBorder carries out human rights advocacy from a Catholic social teaching perspective. It has played a key role in welcoming “Remain in Mexico” victims as they were allowed to enter El Paso. 3/11
Read 11 tweets
Adam Isacson Profile picture
May 12, 2021
Border Patrol's "encounters" with single adult migrants increased 12% from March to April. (This includes double counting because of repeat crossers.)

That's the largest March-to-April increase in adult migrants on this chart.

But wait: …
… Border Patrol's "encounters" with family and child migrants _decreased_ 10% from March to April.

That's the largest March-to-April drop in child and family migrants on this chart.
Here's all categories of migrants "encountered" at the border. A 2.5% overall increase from March to April.

(The average March-to-April percentage increase on this chart is 2.1%, excluding April 2020 which is anomalous because of the mid-March COVID closures.)
Read 4 tweets

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