Keep an eye on the traded CDS quotations.
Many countries are inching closer to Sovereign Default on financial obligations.
Global Sovereign Credit Risk is entering into a new phase, one which will provide new opportunities for Eurobond, distressed assets and hedge fund managers
Countries that misplay their growth targets suffer in the long run.
High economic growth is not a solution for every nation, as most of the countries in the developing world run out of forex reserves.
It can very well become a major source of instability after some time.
#Minsky
Japan and Spain are well remembered for their economic growth rates from the 1950s to the 1970s.
Spain was booming under General Franco, and so was Japan.
Where do these two countries stand now?
Macroeconomic Models must adjust to the empirical and theoretical ground realities,
I mean, both, Portugal and Greece were doing much better under the fascist colonels than how they fared under democratic regimes.
Political Economy and Democracy twins will not always bring the best results.
Asian Economic Miracle and SE-Asia teach us just that.
Chile developed very well statistically under General Pinochet.
The Chicago Boys used a Chilean model as the stepping stone to introduce shock therapy
Human rights abuses were there, which are unforgivable, and the same can be said about the three South European Nations.
An economy which is gravitating away from the equilibrium needs monetarist style shock treatment.
It's how psychologists treat mad people inside a #sanatorium.
It is a painful way of stabilizing economic disorders akin to mental disorders.
Economists can learn from Psychologists
Pakistan was way ahead of India right up to the 1980s.
It had a stronger currency, lower poverty, more open markets that were blending well with global developments, sizeable free enterprise, less bureaucratic management and red tape, etc
Now its teetering on the brink of default
Look at the example of #Narau!!
The once upon a time #Kuwait of the Asia Pacific Region.
One of the richest nations on the planet.
Today it is one of the poorest nations which is used by the Australians as a Jail.
But of course, among transition and transformation economies, you have good examples such as those of Poland and Mongolia.
Both countries have successfully moved out of the Socialist/Marxist Sphere of influence and are marching forward.
People, and path chosen to evolve matter.
And you have tiny Singapore.
A wonderful example of benign dictatorship based on Platonist Ideals.
Late Lee Kuan Yew was a formidable leader.
Only one man made all the difference.
Well, I would like to conclude by saying that leadership is the key to national development.
The leader who makes the best team, optimally assigns roles to his cabinet/advisors and dutifully delegates & follows up will make all the difference btw a failed and a successful nation.

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More from @SAH16928046

Jun 5
How much #Maths is needed in Private Equity (also when compared to Hedge Funds or Investment Banking for example)?
@CAIAAssociation @CAIA_Blog
Private Equity requires a good understanding of Finance and especially sector-specific finance such as Real Estate Finance Investments
In my opinion, the techniques used to model PE transactions have a lot in common with those that are applied to Listed Equity.
It has some maths in it, but nothing out of the world!
Unless you are doing financial risk management assignments, which means you will be applying the standard tools that are used elsewhere, such as #VaR ( translates into ICAR - Invested capital at risk in the PE Industry).
Read 10 tweets
Jun 5
Mostly, Actuarial Science Students and Mathematical Statistics graduates have found refuge in other interdisciplinary professions such as FRM -Financial Risk Management/ Economic Capital Modeling, ERM -Enterprise Risk Management - by doing the CERA offered by @SOActuaries 1/1
Retirement Fund Management, Data Sciences and Machine Learning, Computational Finance, Financial Engineering, Quantitative Trading and Portfolio Management, Health Economics, Operations Research and Industrial Engineering Topics, Financial Regulation of Systemic Risk, etc.
1/2
The Industries of Life and/or General Insurance, are considered to be the largest employers, of actuaries in the financial services industry are no longer relevant. Big 4 hire Actuaries and Statisticians to assist various Machine Learning and Data Science related projects.
1/3
Read 6 tweets
Jun 5
Extremely well-educated people with a scholarly inkling don't do well in the Third World.
Comparatively, professionals with average skill sets do much better in mediocre workplaces, because they communicate in a language which simple-minded colleagues & customers comprehend
I remember working with an office chap who only understood business transactions and outcomes in terms of bookkeeping and accounting entries.
His mind never went beyond management or financial accounting.
No lateral thinking at all!
He was later sacked by the Shareholders.
The biggest challenge comes when you are asked to do your job and also explain things to others to prove you are right to justify your worth.
This kind of job is the most stressful.
Teaching and training colleagues once in a while it is fine, but, 5 days a week, is not helpful.
Read 4 tweets
May 26
Climate Economics and Finance are completely ignored by the private sector based financial sector and other economic sector participants.
The climate-related financial disclosures aka #TFCDs and other nudges, being promoted by different global financial institutions and economic blocs, have not yet reached many countries.
Most banks and other firms are now investing in climate-related risk modelling and stress testing.
Central Banks in the Third World should ask licensed banks to do the same to promote a Green, Clean, and Care Economy.
Read 11 tweets
May 22
#Financial #Literacy begins at home.
Teach your children to save coins, and small notes, inside a locker, or some other toy which imitates a treasure chest.
Once they do that, they will be careful with spending and saving for the rest of their lives.
Awareness matters!
When I was a kid, I remember banks visiting my school to open student #savings accounts.
They used to give students #passbooks, which operated as cheque books.
Parents were cosignatories.
That is how I developed a passion for saving money.
Most of the developing economies fail to grow well because they have a savings crisis!
They need to import #capital from overseas to fund development projects and fix the gap between investment resources.
SE- Asian Nations have done well because of a high domestic #savings rate.
Read 5 tweets
May 22
Never do a PhD Degree with your own money
It's not worth it.
You should only apply for research if scholarships are available and in addition to that, you can make some extra stipend through assistantships, on-campus work, etc.
I see many unemployed people committing this mistake
Look, if you cannot find a job after a BS/BA, or a Master's Degree, then there is either something wrong with your education or the economy in which you are applying for work.
But, investing more amount of money into education with gaining practical experience is pillage for unis
Have seen many STEM (excluding Computer Science or IT) students suffering from a mental blockade.
They keep on studying until they get stuck in the doctoral or post-doctoral program.
Utter waste of life, time and resources.
Better things to do in this world.
Read 4 tweets

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