2/11
What is F&G exactly?
It’s a multifactorial crypto market sentiment analysis.
It shows how people are feeling towards #Bitcoin at any given time.
As market usually moves against the majority’s sentiment, market’s sentiment can be considered as a contrarian indicator.
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3/11
While market lows usually occur with extreme fear and market tops with extreme greed, it should be pretty easy to time the market so far right? 😃
Let’s not jump to conclusions as F&G is often misused.
#Bitcoin been sitting in extreme fear territory for some time now.
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4/11
Isn’t that a good sign for #Bitcoin then? Or more precisely, is extreme fear systematically a contrary indication?
Well, it depends on where we at in the cycle.
In a bull market, when sentiment drops significantly it’s a very bullish sign for #Bitcoin.
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5/11
It usually indicates a local bottom followed by an uptrend. Under these conditions, F&G’s quite relevant to use among other things to build conviction.
Yet at the beginning or in a middle of a bear market, market sentiment isn't that reliable as a contrary indication.
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6/11
Symmetrically in a bear market when sentiment increase significantly, it’s a bearish sign for #Bitcoin.
It usually indicates a local top followed by a downtrend. Under these conditions, F&G’s quite relevant to use for shorting.
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7/11
As Price & Market can stay irrational longer that we imagine, market sentiment and F&G should be used with caution and properly according to where we at in a cycle.
Now the question is : are we in a middle of bear market or close to the end of it?
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8/11
I believe we might be very close to its end.
Based on past datas, we know that each time the F&G was below 10, out of four times, two where bottom signals.
Statistically 50% of the time… So It does not help much in the current situation. Unless there’s a tell. 🧐
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9/11
Lately, I came across a video from @CryptoCrew were he brought a very interesting idea.
According to his thesis, based on historical data points we have, for a bottom to be in, F&G needs to have a cluster of data points below 10 for several weeks.
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10/11
Otherwise it might be a short term relief rallye and not a bottom.
Since early may we started to see a cluster of data points below 10 or equal to 10 that look very similar to what we had in the past when #Bitcoin bottomed.
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11/11
Based on these elements, there's a good probability that #Bitcoin bottom's already in or very close to it.
If you went to the end of this 🧵 and find it helpful, consider RT. 🙏
#Dollar Considerations & how it could impact risk-on assets such as #Bitcoin & #SP500 in 2023.
This past week I've seen a lot of calls expecting a #DXY bounce/rally for the upcoming weeks & months.
I'd like to share another perspective.
A thread 🧵
1/ Let's start with a #DXY analysis on the 6 months chart.
As you can see, we couldn't have had a more text book shooting star candlestick close than we've just had in December 2022.
It indicates a potential price top & reversal.
Not to mention its significance as it's on HTF.
2/ Moving on to the 3 months & 2 months chart analysis.
4th quarter's just closed with a bearish engulfing pattern.
Same configuration for the 2 monthly.
=> It could signal lower prices to come.
1/6 I'm seeing a lot of new people entering the space, saying that :
- They're bullish long term and bearish short term.
- They're more than happy to be able to DCA at lower prices 30k, 28k, 24k, 20k,17k etc.
- They would sell their houses & organs to buy BTC at these prices.
2/6 Saying that:
- They will be buying the fear cause it's where money is made.
- Bitcoin is the future of money & believe in the blockchain technology.
- They’re into NFTs & Metaverse.
- Bear market is for DEFI staking & farming until next bull run.
3/6 Point of concern:
- They’re CONVINCED despite the economic context that bull market will start just after the 2024 halving.
- They’re CERTAIN about the old narrative likely to happen all over again. Even though they got rekt buying the top as exit liquidity EOY 2021.