Thread by @docrussjackson

The @Conservatives & Boris Johnson are in BIG trouble: Johnson performed worse than Major & May in their leadership challenges in 1995 & 2019, & he faced as much opposition as Margaret Thatcher did in the first round of her leadership contest in 1990.

theconversation.com/boris-johnson-…

The history of such confidence votes in leaders of the @Conservatives tells us that they almost always end up damaging both the leader AND the party, even when they support the incumbent.

We have seen this happening on three successive occasions over the past 32 years.

A #voteofnoconfidence itself inevitably weakens rather than strengthens the position of the leader & this erodes support for the party among the voters.

Polling consistently shows that the Wakefield & the Honiton & Tiverton by-elections are likely to result in two losses.

This does not of course mean that Boris Johnson will resign. Former Brexit Secretary David Davis, himself a former Conservative leadership candidate, said the prime minister will have to be “dragged kicking and screaming” from Downing Street.

If this is indeed the case, it means that, unless his colleagues can remove him from office, the row over #partygate will continue & the ability of the government to persuade people to support it to deal with the #CostOfLivingCrisis & other major issues will be further eroded.

"Whoever is responsible for another’s becoming powerful ruins himself, because this power is brought into being either by ingenuity or by force, & both of these are suspect to the one who has become powerful." - Machiavelli

A weakened PM & a rebellious party is bad news for Tor