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Critical Threats Profile picture
@criticalthreats
Jun 10, 2022 • 5 tweets • 5 min read • Read on X
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NEW | #Russian officials are increasingly taking over governmental positions in occupied #Ukrainian territory. Read today’s update from @criticalthreats and @TheStudyofWar: criticalthreats.org/analysis/russi… Image
#Russian forces continued efforts to advance on #Slovyansk from the southeast of #Izyum and made marginal territorial gains north of Slovyansk on June 9. Image
#Russian forces continued to fight for the #Azot industrial zone in #Severodonetsk under the cover of heavy artillery fire. Image
#Russian forces are likely engaged in limited fighting along occupied frontiers in northern #Kharkiv Oblast. Image
#Russian forces continue to focus on strengthening defensive lines along the Southern Axis and are intensifying ground attacks in northeastern #Zaporizhia Oblast with the support of troop and equipment rotations. Image

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More from @criticalthreats

Critical Threats Profile picture
Jan 18
NEW I Both Iranian-backed Iraqi militias and the Houthi movement ceased military operations against Israel after the ceasefire in the Gaza Strip, which underscores that the October 7 War was a regional conflict between Iran and its Axis of Resistance and Israel. 1/7 Image
The Prime Minister’s office said that the ceasefire and the release of Israeli hostages should start at 0900 ET on January 19 after the Israeli cabinet approved the ceasefire on January 17. 2/7
The opening attacks by the Houthis, the Iranian-backed Iraqi militias, and Hezbollah were de-facto declarations of war against Israel that escalated and regionalized the war. Israel responded to these attacks to defend itself. 3/7
Read 8 tweets
Critical Threats Profile picture
Jan 17
NEW | Canadian gold mining company Barrick Gold temporarily suspended mining operations in Mali, and Russia is poised to fill any potential void. 1/6 🇲🇱🇨🇦🇷🇺Image
Barrick’s decision is the result of a multiyear Russian-supported campaign to extract more money from Western mining companies and possibly pressure them out of Mali entirely. 2/6
The Malian government and Barrick had been at odds after both parties failed to agree on a restructured contract after Mali reformed its mining code in 2023 to secure a bigger share of mining revenue. 3/6
Read 6 tweets
Critical Threats Profile picture
Jan 17
NEW | The Gaza ceasefire agreement, which the Israeli cabinet will vote to approve tomorrow, demonstrates that Hamas offered Israel several serious concessions. (1/10) Image
The ceasefire agreement does not guarantee an end to the war. The short, 42-day first phase bans Israeli reconnaissance overflight of the Strip, but this would not give Hamas serious military advantage at this time. (2/10)
Hamas cannot leverage this overflight ban because its military forces are destroyed as a serious fighting organization. Hamas will likely use the first phase to reorganize its forces and move cells around the Gaza Strip without Israeli aerial observation. (3/10)
Read 10 tweets
Critical Threats Profile picture
Jan 12
NEW | Iran conducted an air defense exercise for the second time in recent days.

This activity reflects Iranian concerns about possible airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, as Tehran has continued to expand its nuclear program.

Read below to learn more: Image
The Artesh—the conventional Iranian military—exercises tested the manned and unmanned aircrafts as well as the following air defense systems, according to Iranian state media:
Rad missile:

An Iranian-made, short-range, anti-tank missile designed for T-72 tanks, fired from a 125 millimeters (mm) caliber barrel, and with a target distance of four kilometers (km).
Read 11 tweets
Critical Threats Profile picture
Jan 9
NEW | The Islamic State has evolved and expanded globally since ISIS' territorial defeat in 2019, enabling it to orchestrate and inspire attacks on the West.

IS may further strengthen by exploiting security vacuums in Syria and Africa. 🧵 Image
Image
Image
IS retains a global network of affiliates despite its loss of its statelet in Iraq and Syria.

Its decentralized system helps coordinate between the group’s personnel in local theaters, the global IS network, and central IS leadership.

Chart via @ToreRHamming Image
In Syria, ISIS is now resurging, though it can’t yet hold territory.

ISIS gradually rebuilt its capabilities since 2022 in the central Syrian desert and is likely already exploiting the post-Assad situation, for example by seizing weapons caches.
Read 9 tweets
Critical Threats Profile picture
Jan 3
NEW | An SDF delegation met with the leader of HTS to negotiate “military issues” while SDF forces continued to fight Turkish-backed militias in northern Syria. (1/7)Image
The SDF is almost certainly both unable and unwilling to subordinate itself to the HTS-organized Defense Ministry at this time, given the organizational tasks implicit in that effort and the ongoing fighting with Turkish-backed forces. (2/7)
Reorganizing SDF formations under the HTS-organized Defense Ministry, regardless of whether or not the SDF formations are reflagged or reorganized, would probably require the SDF to break contact with the SNA. (3/7)
Read 7 tweets

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