Thread by @WarintheFuture

We are now at the 106 day mark since Russia began its invasion of #Ukraine. Today, an examination of the options for Russia when, or if, it captures #Severodonetsk and the remainder of the Luhansk region. 1/22

2/ The past month has seen the Russian military consolidate its forces into fewer fronts, and concentrate much of its offensive power in the east. At the same time, it has continued strategic operations to strike targets across Ukraine.

3/ This approach has delivered more tactical success, relative to its initial assaults on Kyiv and Kharkiv in their initial phases of the invasion. Their battlefield success has been particularly obvious with their gains in Luhansk.

4/ Currently, Russian forces fighting in Severodonetsk have fixed Ukrainian forces in a pocket, with Russian forces also advancing from Popasna in the south and Lyman in the north.

5/ The obvious Russian operational objective here is to capture the remaining Ukrainian held territory in Luhansk, and also capture/destroy Ukrainian ground forces that might be enveloped in the Severodonetsk pocket.

6/ If the worst (for Ukraine) occurs, and Russia captures Severodonetsk and the remainder of Luhansk, what might be the next move by Russia?

7/ First, Russia would leverage such a victory for its strategic influence campaign. It would communicate this as a victory to its domestic audience to demonstrate progress for the costs incurred.

8/ Russia would probably seek to use a ‘victory in Luhansk’ message globally to show that the tide of the war had turned, and that ‘supporting Ukraine is only delaying the inevitable’.

9/ Militarily, there are a couple of options for Russia after a victory in Luhansk. First, it might assume a defensive posture to rest, resupply and regenerate forces in the east. This, however, risks wasting the tactical momentum they have created in that region.

10/ Second, the Russians may elect to continue advancing to then secure Donetsk. This is not an insignificant task however. It is a larger piece of territory than the remainder of Luhansk which is the current focus.

11/ And Ukraine retains significant combat forces in the Donbas, which are starting to receive increased numbers of Western artillery systems, to resist a continued Russian advance.

12/ Third, the Russians are under pressure in the south. In Kherson, the Ukrainians are continuing to chip away at territory seized by Russia earlier in the war. Russian positions north of the Dnipro are under particular pressure.

13/ In the wake of any Luhansk success, Russia may have to pause in the east so that it can reinforce its defensive positions in the south. The challenge in the south is magnified for the Russians by the nascent Ukrainian resistance movement in the region. economist.com/europe/2022/06…

14/ Fourth, we should continue to watch the north and north east of Ukraine for Russian operations. Russia has options around Kharkiv to conduct ground operations to fix Ukrainian forces there so they can’t reinforce the south or east.

15/ At the same time, there are forces in Belarus that could undertake limited operations in northern Ukraine. While unlikely, it is still a contingency that the Ukrainian high command cannot take its eye off. atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/belarusa…

16/ The reality at the moment however is that both sides are weary, and are sustaining heavy casualties. The Ukrainian President has stated in the past 24 hours that Ukraine is losing over 100 KIA per day.

17/ Therefore, we might expect an operational pause (not a ceasefire and not a stalemate) at some time in the coming weeks. The Ukrainians and the Russians will need time to rebuild, retrain and re-strategize if the Russians are successful in Luhansk.

18/ In every long war, a tempo is established of constant maneuvering and preparations, punctuated by short periods of vicious combat. A Russian victory in Luhansk might end the first major pulse of combat in this war.

19/ While it appears that tactical momentum is with the Russians, they still have issues with regeneration of their combat forces. They have tactical and operational choices available, but all have attendant logistic, air support and other challenges.

20/ We should have no expectation of a quick end to this war. While both sides are tiring, they both retain the will, the means and the political objectives to continue the fight over the long term.

21/ Given all this, strategic patience from those supporting #Ukraine is essential. As Eliot Cohen has recently written, “the moment calls for intestinal fortitude, standing by the government and people of Ukraine.” End.

22/ Thank you to @War_mapper @Blue_Sauron @JominiW @MichaelH992 @uaweapons @TheStudyofWar @IAPonomarenko @HN_Schlottman @washingtonpost @KyivIndependent & @defencehq whose images I used in this thread.