1/ Ukrainian TVD, Day 98-107. The first week & a half of June has seen the Russo-Ukrainian War escalate into a deadly attritional phase dominated by artillery duels and positional battles with little major change in the forward edge of the battle area. #UkraineRussianWar Image
2/ Weather Outlook. Forecast for the next ten-days will see an initial 4-day period of thunderstorms in the Donbas that may slow operations in non-urban terrain. Temps will range from 31-14 C with higher humidity. Cloud cover & wind speed will make toss bombing problematic. Image
3/ Kharkiv OD. This remains a critical front and has become an unstable region over the past week. The RAF needs to expand its northern enclave to maintain pressure on Kharkiv & pin down UAF units still defending here. #Kharkiv Image
4/ For the UAF it is unclear if they will have the combat power to renew their offensive to push remaining RAF units over the international border. At a minimum UAF forces in the Kharkiv metro area will be able to contain RAF activity to its present enclave.
5/ Severodonetsk-Donetsk OD. The strategic importance of Severodonetsk has grown out of how the RAF & UAF have arrayed their forces in relation to each other to achieve a clear operational advantage relative to each sides war aims throughout the Donbas. #Donbas #Izyum #Popasna Image
6/ The RAF must secure the Severodonetsk Salient to achieve a true general breakout into the relatively undefendable terrain of western Donetsk. Penetrating the remaining UAF defenses on the Siverskyi Donets north of Slovyansk and expanding the Popasna Bulge shapes this.
7/ Improved Russian artillery survivability tactics & VKS support to ground operations is allowing sustained Russian maneuver success. Improved artillery & VKS strikes against UAF troop concentrations & logistical infrastructure are facilitating RAF momentum.
8/ Severodoentsk AO. Momentum has swung back in favor of the RAF in Severodoentsk, but the UAF is still holding their ground in the western part of the city, particularly in the industrial sector centered on the Azot Chemical Plant. #Severodonestk Image
9/ However, the UAF is struggling to keep its artillery units supplied, hindering their ability to deliver timely counter-battery fire against the Russians. With losses mounting the UAF will face a difficult choice in deciding to maintain the defense of Severodonetsk or pullback.
10/ Zaporizhzhia OD. RAF & UAF activity in the Zaporizhzhia OD remains limited to localized attacks to improve tactical positioning. There are indications that both the RAF & UAF are preparing to renew offensive action in the Hulyaipole-Orikhiv area. #Melitopol #Mariupol Image
11/ Odesa-Kherson OD. The UAF counteroffensive into northern Kherson has met with little success so far. Despite the significant number of forces allocated to the operation, UAF units were only able to establish an 8km wide & 10km deep lodgment on the east of the Inhulets River. Image
12/ RAF units under the control of the 7th Guards Air Assault (Landing) Division have been able to successfully contain the breach in their NW defensive line and halt the Ukrainian advance for now. The UAF still have enough forces on hand to expand these lodgments.
13/ Black Sea OTMO. The Russian blockade of Odesa continues. However, improved Ukrainian anti-ship capabilities have forced the majority of Black Sea Fleet surface activity to be pushed back 100km from the southern Ukrainian coast. The NW region of the Black Sea is now contested. Image
14/ Aerospace Assessment. VKS & Naval cruise missile strike effects remain negligible for ordnance expended. Both the quantity of strikes against critical infrastructure & the overall accuracy of the missiles employed are not impeding the delivery of Western aid.
15/ Improved Russian electronic warfare is causing havoc with Ukrainian recon UAVs, C2 nodes, counter-battery radar, and radio network communications. With their heavy reliance on UAVs for targeting, RAF EW is hindering UAF artillery operations. apnews.com/article/russia…
16/ Battle Damage Assessment. The Ukrainian Government Authorities have acknowledged the heavy toll current combat operations in the Donbas is having on UAF manpower. The UAF is reportedly losing 100-200 KIA and 400-500 WIA a day. theguardian.com/world/2022/jun…
17/ The continued loss of a battalion equivalent a day will erode UAF overall combat effectiveness faster than it will the RAF, even with Russian force generation issues. The RAF cannot ignore growing resistance to coercive mobilization practices if it hopes to replace losses.
18/ Ukrainian TV, Day 98-107. There is a growing unevenness to support of Ukraine. Britain, Poland, Denmark, Czech Republic, Slovakia, and the Baltic States are the most supportive while Germany, France, Italy, & Hungary voice support but show little by way of their actions. Image
19/ Tension continues to rise as a global food crisis appears likely due to the Russian blockade of Ukrainian ports & sanctions on Russian grain exports. Turkey intends to act as a mediator but not without its own suspicious activity in grain exports. bbc.com/news/business-…
20/ Humanitarian Impact. Ukrainian refugees total 9.87+ million with 7.23+ million in countries bordering Ukraine, another 2.64+ throughout Europe. Internally displaced people throughout Ukraine are now at 6.76+ million (1.7+ million in east & 562K in south Ukraine).
21/ Information War. While speaking to Russian entrepreneurs President Putin made clear his goal in Ukraine is to “restore” supposed “lost territory” in the same way Peter the Great did in his 21-year war with Sweden (Great Northern War, 1700-21). cnn.com/2022/06/10/eur…
22/ This rhetoric is meant to justify 1) the historic right of Russia to wage war in the Ukraine to restore “New Russia” to the Motherland, 2) all and any means to accomplish this, 3) the length of time this may take, 4) greater sacrifice required by the Russian people to do this
23/ Overall Assessment. The character of the war has turned more favorably toward Russia, a grinding attritional war of positional battles in which RAF ground forces can make steady incremental progress behind their advantage in artillery & close air support.
24/ The UAF will struggle to gain offensive parity or localized superiority in a war based off this character, as evident by the limited success of the northern Kherson counteroffensive, despite the UAF advantage in maneuver units. More Western artillery & EW are needed.
25/ Time remains the ultimate enemy of both belligerents. The UAF needs to contain the RAF to the occupied areas, acquire more modern Western weapon systems & train enough forces to turn the tide. The RAF needs to complete its conquest before the UAF can defeat it. #SlavaUkraini

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Iván Ramírez de Arellano, The Jomini of the West

Iván Ramírez de Arellano, The Jomini of the West Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @JominiW

Mar 14
1/ Daily Tactical Update (DTU), Ukrainian TVD Day 1114: Fierce combat persisted across the Donbas Strategic Direction, especially north of Chasiv Yar and in the Kostiantynopil regions. Russian troops made attempts to penetrate Ukrainian defensive positions using heavy artillery and infantry assaults but encountered strong resistance, leading to limited territorial advances.

In the Southern Strategic Direction, Ukrainian forces executed precise strikes on Russian ammunition depots in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, which disrupted supply lines and hampered Russian artillery effectiveness.

The Northern Strategic Direction saw an uptick in cross-border shelling from Russian forces into Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts, which led Ukraine to bolster its defensive setups in these areas.

Concurrently, Russian missile and drone attacks on critical Ukrainian infrastructure continued, with Ukrainian air defenses successfully intercepting most incoming threats; however, there was some minor damage to energy facilities in Kyiv and Dnipro.
#UkraineRussiaWar #Kursk #SudzhaImage
2/ Operational Terms: Here is a list of commonly used terms and their definitions to help you understand the thread's graphics. Image
Image
Image
Image
3/ Operational Direction Kursk: In the past two and a half weeks, OUV Kursk has effectively utilized its operational advantages over recent months to defeat OTU Siversk in the Kursk Oblast. While it is nearly certain OTU Siversk will shift to a defensive posture in Sumy Oblast, it’s uncertain how much force structure OUV Kursk will retain for future operations.Image
Read 11 tweets
Mar 12
1/ A breakthrough or a deadlock? The Jeddah agreement, reached on March 11, 2025, between U.S. and Ukrainian officials, marks a significant development in efforts to address the ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia. This comprehensive agreement includes a cease-fire proposal and economic terms, with mixed reactions from Russia. As the world watches, all eyes are on Moscow's response. Will this lead to peace or another impasse? Is this the road to Minsk III? Here are the key details:
#UkraineWar #Ceasefire #Geopolitics

x.com/Mylovanov/stat…
2/ Cease-Fire Proposal
The centerpiece of the Jeddah agreement is a U.S.-proposed 30-day cease-fire between Ukraine and Russia. The main aspects of this cease-fire include:

1. Duration: An immediate, interim period of 30 days that can be extended by mutual agreement.
2. Scope: The ceasefire encompasses the entire front line of the conflict, including aerial and naval operations.
3. Comprehensive coverage: It encompasses all forms of combat, including missile, drone, and bomb attacks.
4. Conditional implementation: The cease-fire depends on Russia's acceptance and simultaneous implementation.

x.com/ChrisO_wiki/st…
3/ Humanitarian Efforts
As part of the cease-fire agreement, several humanitarian initiatives are proposed:

1. Exchange of prisoners of war.
2. Release of civilian detainees.
3. Return of forcibly transferred Ukrainian children. Image
Read 8 tweets
Feb 25
1/ Ukrainian TVD Operational Update (Day 1096): February 2025 saw intensifying military operations throughout the Ukrainian TVD, with both sides focusing on strategic air campaigns and continued Russian offensive on multiple fronts. Russia continued its missile and drone strikes on Ukrainian critical infrastructure, targeting energy grids and transportation hubs to disrupt military logistics and civilian morale. Meanwhile, Ukraine escalated its use of long-range drones and precision missile strikes, hitting Russian oil refineries and logistical hubs deep in Russian territory, including key sites in Belgorod and Kursk.

On the political front, Ukraine secured additional Western military aid, including French Mirage 2000 fighter jets, while NATO reaffirmed its support amidst growing concerns about potential escalation. Domestically, Russia faced increasing discontent among its population due to Ukrainian strikes on its territory, while sanctions-induced economic stagnation and logistical strain further challenged its war effort.

Economically, Ukraine struggled with energy shortages caused by continued Russian strikes, but international financial aid and grain export corridors through the Black Sea provided a lifeline. The conflict remains entrenched, with both nations locked in a war of attrition, as neither side achieved decisive breakthroughs on the battlefield or in negotiations. #UkraineWar #Donbass #Pokrovsk #Kupyansk #Pishchance #VelykaNovosilka #Kurakhove #ChasivYar #siverekImage
2/ Fourth Year of the War Begins: Today marks a solemn day for Ukraine and the international community. Three years have passed since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine commenced. Three years later, much has changed, but one constant that has remained is the resolve of the Ukrainian people to defy Russian aggression and the conviction of those in the West willing to oppose it. Ukraine has shown the world what Patriots are made of. #SlavaUkraini
x.com/ZelenskyyUa/st…
3/ Operational Terms: Here is a list of commonly used terms and their definitions to help you understand the thread's graphics. Image
Image
Image
Image
Read 25 tweets
Feb 12
1/ Daily Tactical Update (DTU), Ukrainian TVD Day 1083: Today's DTU focuses on actions along the Donetsk Front from 08-11 February, 2025. #Siversk #Donbas #ChasivYar #Toretsk #Pokrovsk #NovyKomar #VelykaNovosilka #UkraineWar #RussiaUkraineWar #Russia #Ukraine #SlavaUkraini Image
2/ Operational Terms: Here is a list of commonly used terms and their definitions to help you understand the thread's graphics. Image
Image
Image
Image
3/ Operational Overview: The Donetsk Oblast serves as the critical front for the Ground Forces of the Russian Federation (SVRF). The primary focus of OUGRV-Ukraine operations is the capture of southern Donetsk Oblast, which will facilitate advances into the less fortified areas of western and central Donetsk.

In the OSV Yug Area of Responsibility, the 3d Guards Combined Arms Army has made minor advancements in the Siversk region. In the Chasiv Yar area, VDV and Spetsnaz units have achieved significant tactical control over the northern and central sections of the town. The 41st Guards Combined Arms Army has established control over most of Toretsk. Yet, Ukrainian forces continue to resist in the northern and northwest outskirts of the city. While OSVs Tsentr and Vostok are making daily advancements in southern Donetsk, OUV Donetsk is successfully conducting delaying operations despite intense pressure.Image
Read 14 tweets
Feb 1
1/ Daily Tactical Update (DTU), Ukrainian TVD Day 1073: Today's DTU focuses on actions in the Siversk Operational Direction during January 2025. #Siversk #Donbas #UkraineWar #RussiaUkraineWar #Russia #Ukraine #SlavaUkraini Image
2/ Operational Terms: Here is a list of commonly used terms and their definitions to help you understand the thread's graphics. Image
Image
Image
Image
3/ Operational Overview: The Siversk OD is not only militarily sensitive for Russia and Ukraine but also politically, especially for Russia. Since the fall of Severodonetsk, Lysychansk, and Popasna, Siversk has been a key operational hub. It occupies a crucial position within the OSUV Khortytsia area of responsibility. It acts as a coordination center between OTU Lyman and OTU Luhansk to defend the Slovyansk/Kramatorsk urban conglomerate, a critical strategic point in the Donbas SD. Additionally, it serves as the entry point into northern Donetsk Oblast.

Little has changed in the Siversk OD for almost two and a half years. It is a principal source of Russian military frustration, exemplifying the inadequacies of the Russian Armed Forces in achieving a decisive victory over Ukraine and the Ukrainian ability to hold their territory and outfight the Russians.Image
Read 9 tweets
Jan 28
1/ Daily Tactical Update (DTU), Ukrainian TVD Day 1069: Today's DTU focuses on actions in the Southern Donetsk Front from January 22-27, which includes the Pokrovsk and Velyka Novosilka Operational Directions. #Pokrovsk #VelykaNovosilka #UkraineWar #RussiaUkraineWar #Russia Image
2/ Operational Terms: Here is a list of commonly used terms and their definitions to help you understand the thread's graphics. Image
Image
Image
Image
3/ Operational Overview: Major Viktor Tregubov, spokesperson for the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Grouping of Forces (OSUV) Khortytsia, stated that the Russians are trying to bypass Pokrovsk from the western side, looking for vulnerabilities in the Ukrainian defenses to capture the city. Tregubov also suggested that the Russians would not try to reach the Dnipropetrovsk region but concentrate on capturing Pokrovsk city. The major stated that the Russians maintain their daily average of 50-60 combat actions along this sector of the front.Image
Read 10 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

:(