Thread by @HeliosRunner

1/ Really interesting report here! have a look.
Just released - directly from Vadym Skibitky.
lots to unfold here.
Mil #intelligence of #Ukraine #GUR
Ru Plans are updated and still focused on East (we kne about that) but the rest of plan would depend on this success or failure

2/ We knew from Gerasimov himself that they claimed to have 187 Bataillons just before the war (maybe not all complete and same level of readiness etc) also at one point we had confirmation (April) that about 126 BTGs were in Ukraine (before the retreat from #Kyiv area) and we

3/ have counted about 22 to 26 BTGs that would have been destroyed. (some with 85% attrition)
I also reported that (info was given several time by Gen staff etc) that 20 BTGs were "rebuild" near #Belgorod and 8 more in the area of #Koursk and 3/5 more near #Briansk and we have

4/ have reports of 5/6 more in the south (not employed yet) so the total would make almost the total of 40 he is talking about here... (-5 still to know where?)

At the end of the day, i know that some people are going to think there is still a lot of Power out there not engage

5/ in #Ukraine, but... (i've made a long thread about it) you have to understand few things (talking to people with no mil knowledge here and making it simple) that an army needs to keeps reserve of force to defend it's own territory (first thing first) and that they already sent

6/ to #Ukraine their best "team" (pros)
Now it's like Rugby (or equivalent) you have on the bench the third one who are not as good as the one on the field in the first place.
Also you need to understand 2 more important things here :

first, there is a ration when you attack vs defense. Ru attacking is quite often putting 3 to 5 attackers per defenders. (& it would be the opposite if Ukraine would like to storm places defended by Ru if it was a city or fortification places (like bunkers or strong trenches etc)

8/ so Ru now is not playing stupid and it conforts what i thought about Putin calculating the real final cost of all this operation... they don't want to engage troops that would gain 50km but would be destroyed in the process.
Now the second point is that on the 100 (or so) BTGs

9/ that are actually engaged in Ukraine.. we are not talking full potent bataillon (see infographic below) 700 to 900 men.
we do know that in some areas like Izyum that some have 20% combattant left and half support!
so 100 is a big deal only because RU still have CAS and arty

10/ artillery which is still so strong right now. and they still have enough drones (like Orlan 10/OUtpost etc) and sat imagery etc to help them to push hard.
but while attacking they are losing a lot right now even they have partially shift their way of attacking UA positions.

11/ and this is why we have started to see for the first time some Old T-64 on the field to complete the units and mixed units that are painting new signs as they need to do more "frankenstein" units rights now.
like here :

https://twitter.com/HeliosRunner/status/1534893891958226945

12/ so you have to think with the kind of tab i'm showing EVERY end of a week like here :

https://twitter.com/HeliosRunner/status/1533434071686184961

that their "BTGs" are more looking that .. (image below is not Ru Btg but a simple representation i made month ago for close friends to explain)

13/ also a last word because i see a LOT of confusion with numbers/figures of global army Ukr versus Russia. i'll make it very basic because even the pro Ukr or Russians everywhere are really TOTALLY confused about that :
let's take an example when an army has a 1 Million men...

14/ it does not mean that there are 1 million men fighting; all the army in the world have a ratio ( in peace time, that can vary from 1:5 to 1:7) from foots soldiers to support (administration & all the supporting team if you will) so it would make 200k soldiers. this is also

15/ very different from Reserve corps (reservistes) where depending on how a country managed it (France has 40/50k if i record it correctly) and Israel can bring back 200k in a blink of an eye! Russia has almost 200k also i think (need to be checked)
but the point is other forces

16/ are sometimes easy to bring in because they are ready and trained.
but in some country like Russia right now, they don't want to sign any contracts unless they are sure to stay repairing Tanks/IFVs etc on their homeland.
while in the meantime... #Ukraine is training as for

17/ the last report more than 25k new services men/women ready to come after 2 months training and 25k have signed to be soldier but are waiting to be trained (because not enough structures/personnels) to do it now..
and there are apparently 250k more ready to fight directly for

18/ their country/ homeland.
Also (and i have direct link with some people in this situation) some soldiers were injured or fought near Kyiv and now are not ask to fight in the East/South.
there is still a big reserve of men in Northern army. not all the forces engaged right now

19/ just to make a "parallèle" with France in WWI. the lost 1.4 Million MEN and 300k civilians ! and the country had 40 million inhabitant back then! almost like Ukraine today.
So it destroyed a big part of the country, but they survived.
and Ukraine is now willing to do so.

20/ so when you hear guys like Arestovich talking abt devastating loss and crying rivers you have to understand he is in pain but it's also more about Communication and putting pressure on all the occidental countries to bring in ASAP heavy war materials. Still a lot of soldiers!

21/

22/ note perso rapide
j'en avais rs le bol de voir toujours cette notif comme quoi il y a 600km de front, donc je suis allez voir ça de pres. Google earth pro : 1090 km de trajet (en ne prenant meme pas tous les points donc ajout +20%) moins trajet sur eau depuis "zaporijia" donc

23/ donc 900km x1.2 = 1100 bornes pour 104 BTGs soit 1 BTG/10 km (on peut bien sur enlever les zones ou les russes sont "protégés sur leurs flancs par la Siverskyi donets. mais on voit qu'il y a de l'espace... y compris pour agir si les UKr voulaient vraiment les attaquer à fond.