Thread by @GrayConnolly

I spoke with @vtchakarova re: Australia's enduring strategic interests & Allies, AUKUS/Quad/France/India, Seapower, China & Taiwan, and the realities & obvious consequences of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Enjoy. #DragonBear #Realpolitik ⬇️

In my discussion with @vtchakarova , we discussed the Russian invasion of Ukraine - you can find my long thread, begun well before Russia invaded Ukraine, here & scroll up.

https://twitter.com/GrayConnolly/status/1537554316629663744

Towards the end, @vtchakarova & I discussed Russia achieved its Novorossiya project & making most of the Black Sea a 'Russian Lake'. If so, Turkey either does or will face a decision point about whether a deal with Russia over the Black Sea's resources more important than NATO.

It need hardly be stressed, as @vtchakarova and I discussed, that not just Ukraine but the Black Sea and its seabed/continental shelves have enormous resource riches & the Russian desire to annex may be amenable to the Turks share in terms of exploration, extraction & production

In view of the above - and obvious differences within Europe over how to handle Russia & what to do re Ukraine - I offered this analysis here. The Anglophones boosting Ukraine are not in the EU ... France & Germany are .... differing perspectives

https://twitter.com/GrayConnolly/status/1536636571029770241

I have mentioned before the importance of the short-lived 1918 Treaty of Brest-Litovsk among the Imperial Germans, Austria-Hungary, the Turks, Bulgarians, and the Russian Soviets, less for what it achieved than what desires its terms reflected esp for a Kaiserian teutonic core.

One thing @vtchakarova both agreed on was that we are now in a new world but it looks like a globalised reversion to 19thC norms, where national strength & depth matters & only fools do not note, as here, obvious Russian motivations: more food, more energy, & yes more Russians.