Thread by @BuchananLiz

Russia welcomes Arctic cooperation with non-regional countries. a 🧵 on why suspending #Arctic dialogue & engagement w Moscow was a serious misstep. arctic.ru/international/…

morality of engagement appeared to be the narrative which won out in this (likely) protracted war. in lieu of the transnational, frontier challenges which the #Arctic whips up - climate change, global transportation, data, space, minerals, hydrocarbons, fisheries.

rational interests were sacrificed: #Arctic Council was effectively suspended via a pause & Russia has wasted no time seeking out new avenues for engagement w states far beyond the region. some will be hard to exorcise once embedded.

in comparison, the morality judgement was balanced with realist interests in the approach taken by the #Antarctic Treaty System stakeholders. German hosts called out Russian aggression, but all (inc 🇺🇦 🇷🇺) committed to keep the forum ticking along.

so now we have calls for an A7 (Arctic Council permanent members without Russia). Collectively less than 50% of the Arctic zone & still working with the limitations that international law & norms which apply.

good thing that climate change, SAR, fisheries agreements, great power politics & international transport stay within territorial & maritime borders, right?

so, Russia is forging ahead with the “creation of an international partnership in the #Arctic with the participation of non-Arctic states”. expect congestion in Bering Strait & GIUK gap should China take this invitation and run.

we’ve also seen the freeze of western funds for Russian #Arctic LNG projects (TotalEnergies for ex has not exited ventures). just this week Saudi firms have confirmed their purchase of slices of Arctic LNG projects, we are expecting more deals from China & India too.