Russia welcomes Arctic cooperation with non-regional countries. a 🧵 on why suspending #Arctic dialogue & engagement w Moscow was a serious misstep. arctic.ru/international/…
morality of engagement appeared to be the narrative which won out in this (likely) protracted war. in lieu of the transnational, frontier challenges which the #Arctic whips up - climate change, global transportation, data, space, minerals, hydrocarbons, fisheries.
rational interests were sacrificed: #Arctic Council was effectively suspended via a pause & Russia has wasted no time seeking out new avenues for engagement w states far beyond the region. some will be hard to exorcise once embedded.
in comparison, the morality judgement was balanced with realist interests in the approach taken by the #Antarctic Treaty System stakeholders. German hosts called out Russian aggression, but all (inc 🇺🇦 🇷🇺) committed to keep the forum ticking along.
so now we have calls for an A7 (Arctic Council permanent members without Russia). Collectively less than 50% of the Arctic zone & still working with the limitations that international law & norms which apply.
good thing that climate change, SAR, fisheries agreements, great power politics & international transport stay within territorial & maritime borders, right?
so, Russia is forging ahead with the “creation of an international partnership in the #Arctic with the participation of non-Arctic states”. expect congestion in Bering Strait & GIUK gap should China take this invitation and run.
we’ve also seen the freeze of western funds for Russian #Arctic LNG projects (TotalEnergies for ex has not exited ventures). just this week Saudi firms have confirmed their purchase of slices of Arctic LNG projects, we are expecting more deals from China & India too.

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More from @BuchananLiz

Jun 19
Russian-Asian #Arctic Research Consortium founded: ten Russian and Chinese universities will become part of the Russian-Asian Arctic Research Consortium 👇🏻 arctic.ru/international/…
+ proposals sent to India, Vietnam and Singapore, as well as Hong Kong.
+ already includes one of China’s “seven sons of defense research” Image
Read 4 tweets
May 30
China Using Drones to Map And Survey #Antarctica asiafinancial.com/china-using-dr…
Sun Yat-sen University falls ‘High Risk’ on @ASPI_org Def Tracker & is on the 🇺🇸 gov list of unverified institutions (export bans).
but, science
Read 4 tweets
Jul 14, 2021
instead of getting upset abt a retired Australian male emailing a publication I wrote for to "bring to attention" the fact that I am *not* Australia's foremost Russia (nor Antarctic) expert & requesting they not publish my work anymore....🤣
I have decided to share a few hot tips to help others wanting to work in Australia's security academic sphere.

(also full disclosure: I plan to continue writing on Russia & on polar security issues, without permission).
1. have mentors for different stages of your career, go for folks who align with your values beyond academia.
Read 12 tweets
Jul 23, 2020
#Pompeo 🇩🇰 meeting readout (Arctic inc): Danish Min Kofod outlines pragmatic approach to 'deterrence' & dialogue wrt 🇷🇺 "we will ensure that we have the proper capabilities in the region, & we want to maintain close cooperation based on Arctic Council & the Ilulissat Declaration"
Min Kofad did not frame #Arctic concerns related to China, which was interesting. both "signed new MoUs...that cover a wide range of areas, like growing Greenland’s mining and energy sectors through transparent investment, helping manage land and fisheries" ....transparency...
press q's: agenda to "round up support among allies against China...all due respect, why on Earth...Denmark, of all places?" In the Arctic, China has fancied themselves as a near-Arctic nation. We have a responsibility to get that right for...our own sovereign security issues"
Read 4 tweets
Jul 16, 2020
U.S #Arctic fun: 1. Issues outlined miss prob only disagreement bw A5 states - 🇺🇸 🇨🇦 maritime challenge 2. technically it’s a process of ‘remilitarisation’ on account of the Cold War 3. lumping 🇨🇳 🇷🇺 into same axis in Arctic is problematic - geography/history makes one legitimate
4. 🇺🇸 is extremely active & engaged in Arctic gov structures & WGs - not sure how a consulate here will bolster any real power. “Facility” 👀 this expensive office block will work to interrupt sig advances 🇨🇳 has made into 🇬🇱 economy, gov/industry & precious minerals sectors.
expect 🇬🇱 to be tabled with a pick your side decision wrt any further 🇨🇳 investment. 🇷🇺 will envy the geostragtic position a 🇺🇸 outpost in 🇬🇱 affords. no doubt seige mentality/ encirclement fears will be fanned in Moscow.
Read 5 tweets
Jul 12, 2020
I had heaps of fun writing this with @ArcticTroy @ArcticFellow 👇🏻 we put forward a conceptual framework for an #Arctic Security Forum - something lacking. “Arctic Security and Dialogue: Assurance through Defence Diplomacy” @WarInstitute @MDiplomacyWORLD moderndiplomacy.eu/2020/07/11/arc…
Arctic militarization & strategic competition in the region is ⏫ problem is: there is no effective forum for Arctic defence authorities to discuss the potentially emerging security dilemma or the spectrum of associated and relevant issues involving Arctic non-/State interests.
Some current security forums capable of hosting dialogue on Arctic military-security affairs do exist, but these are inadequate for any real strategic discourse due to the fact that the Arctic’s largest stakeholder is not considered an ‘equal member’ in these fora.
Read 10 tweets

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