Anthony Bardaro Profile picture
Jun 23 4 tweets 3 min read
/1

"The historical linkage between corporate tax rates and investment growth is non-existent [almost zero, but the correlation] between [interest] rates and investment actually has the wrong sign [they're positively correlated]"

#capex #macro #fiscalpolicy Image
/2

"when profits are growing, so does investment [which] also shows a stronger connection with growth expectations – when CEOs expect stronger growth they also are planning higher levels of capex growth"

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More from @AnthPB

May 10
@fed_speak @cullenroche @profplum99 @EconomPic @MstarETFUS @ritholtz @choffstein 0/7

What are the chances that capital markets distortions are not passive's fault, but rather misattributed/coincidental ('correlation not causation')...?

To wit, some hypothetical questions – the devil's advocacy null hypothesis you've asked for...

@fed_speak @cullenroche @profplum99 @EconomPic @MstarETFUS @ritholtz @choffstein /1

Weren't there a lot of reasons for this empirical increase in valuation multiples, e.g.:

• macro (demographics/disinflation/negative real rates)

• technical (TINA/access)

• sector mix-shift (tech)

• ~idiosyncratic ()
@fed_speak @cullenroche @profplum99 @EconomPic @MstarETFUS @ritholtz @choffstein /2.i

Why isn't increasing equity market implied correlation/comovement (and hence kurtosis) more attributable to rising financialization than specific passive/active share – i.e. stock market is increasingly a macro proxy instead of a collection of idiosyncratic stocks...?
Read 21 tweets
Jan 5
/1

A thread on credit creation, money supply, and how the printer does (and doesn't) go brrrr 🧵🖨💸👇

First, banks don’t lend reserves – banks make a loan first, then they find reserves second (if necessary)...

#monetarypolicy #FederalReserve #Fed
/2

If a bank extends a new loan, it creates a loan asset and a deposit liability on their balance sheet ⚖️:

loan deposit
📄 💵
asset liability

/3

The bank only needs reserves against that loan in case the borrower wants to move his deposit to another bank:

e.g. A borrower from Bank ABC is a construction co who needs to buy materials from a supplier whose checking account is at Bank XYZ...

👷‍♂️↔️💁‍♀️
💸↔️🪵
Read 20 tweets
Mar 26, 2021
@sheeraf @CaseyNewton would love to continue our convo – had two questions:

1️⃣ scale legal system to exact individual user liability (in cases of legal abuse a la brandenburg or libel)?

2️⃣ more democratic solution for everything else (instead of centralized corporate arbiters)?
... I proposed arbitration as least bad solution for 1️⃣ and @sheeraf's Myanmar example was best exhibit of what I called the "geopolitical problem"

... but can we talk about the US only for a sec?
... I know, 'home country bias', etc; but 1️⃣ is in the spirit of domestic progress on these issues in light of congressional hearings – specifically the *legal* aspects of free speech on social media per US law – so I wanted to focus on that
Read 4 tweets
Jan 29, 2021
"Apple CEO Tim Cook links Facebook's business model to real-world violence"

...yeah like Uighurs concentration camps – wouldn't want that 🤥

cnbc.com/2021/01/28/app…
... this dood has revealed himself to be a rare turd:
... a massive turd:

"a naively optimistic perception
fueled by a false narrative (vs an inevitably flawed reality) is the more dangerous of the two... a la Tim Cook and Apple"

Read 12 tweets
Dec 29, 2020
Empirical research about index fund flows, ETFs, and a self-reinforcing size factor bias...
$SPY $VOO $IWB $IWM #distortion #distortedmarkets
... a 1-sigma spike in fund flows predicts +3.5pp outperformance for size ("SMB" = small minus big)
... dollar volume matters as much as (if not more than) market cap:

e.g. speculators in singlenames can be marginal buyers inflating prices (with asymmetric size bias due to bandwagon a la $aapl $tsla) by reducing supply for more structural ETF demand

Read 4 tweets

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