Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #monetarypolicy

Most recents (24)

DISCLAIMER : This is for educational purpose and not financial advise.

Monthly market analysis Sep 30, 2022

#StockMarket Worst week, worst month, and worst quarter of the year since Financial crisis and dot-com bubble. Why it happened?

Let's look at more closely 🧵👇
1. After making reversal at H/S neckline in early Aug, US 10Y Yield #bond broke out from Feb'11 high 3.73% and have held up strongly for about a week. This month, yield has gone up +20%, bad for risk and long duration assets

#StockMarket Image
2. US 02Y Yield #bond broke out resistance 3.7% and past 4% strongly after Fed Reserve hawkish announcement and never look back. This month yield has gone up more than +22%

#StockMarket Image
Read 49 tweets
What really causes inflation? 🧵

[a thread for normies - like me]
2/ The problem with #inflation is that it's a very personal experience.

As I always say, the wallet is the most sensitive organ in the body, so my inflation might not be your inflation.

In fact, my inflation could be seen as #disinflation by you... (more on that later)
3/ Price inflation and monetary inflation have different definitions:

* For many.- #inflation is the increased prices paid for goods & services.

** To others.- it's a decline in the purchasing power of your #money.

*** In layman's terms.- Too much money chasing too few goods.
Read 25 tweets
The global economy has changed dramatically this year, and financial markets have turned volatile. The question on everyone’s mind now is…

(1/8)

#globaleconomy #financialmarkets #nifty
Will recession hit India? How will it be different from past recessions that our country has faced?

Let’s look at some data points.

(2/8)

#recession #india #economy
Based on the RBI’s assessment, the Real GDP projection is retained at 7.2% for FY23. This comes on the back of strong investment activity, improving bank credit and rising capacity expansion.

(3/8)

#rbi #gdp #centralbanks
Read 8 tweets
The headline #inflation data today moderated a bit on the back of falling #gasoline prices, but it’s still running at a worryingly high rate.
Over time, we think the slowdown in #economic growth, the continuation of the @federalreserve’s assertive #HikingCycle and the possibility of resolution with several persistent supply chain issues should influence broad #inflation lower.
Still, while #CorePCE inflation (the #Fed’s favored measure) is likely to moderate in the coming months, it’ll still remain well-above the Fed’s 2% #inflation target.
Read 15 tweets
The #JobsReport came in at 372,000 jobs gained, the #unemployment rate at 3.6%, which was coupled with #wage growth of 5.1% year-over-year: all solid numbers in a historic context.
Still, when taken in the context of much of the #economic data coming in, last week’s #employment report reemphasized two key tenets of the economy and consequently of #investment markets: 1) the U.S., and indeed the global economy, is tangibly slowing…
…and 2) we are probably past the #employment peak and will likely witness #LaborMarket slowing in the back half of the year.
Read 11 tweets
🧵1. There is no #coalition as the NDP MPs are not in the Liberal cabinet., instead there is a supply and confidence agreement to provide stability and an environment to get important work done #supplyandconfidenceagreement
2. During a time when transitions from a pandemic financing to normalcy must take place Canadians will benefit from what the supply and confidence agreement provides. Federal #COVID19supports expired on May 7th. cbc.ca/news/politics/…
3. Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland says Canada's surging job growth and record-low unemployment rate is evidence that ongoing pandemic support will not be needed. Those applying for workers' benefits have 60 days to submit their claims, while businesses have 180 days.
Read 39 tweets
As was widely expected, the @federalreserve’s Federal Open Market Committee raised the target range for the Federal Funds #policy rate by 50 basis points (bps), to between 0.75% and 1.0%, and announced the start of #runoff of the central bank’s balance sheet.
As previously suggested by the #Fed’s March minutes, the pace of runoff was confirmed today as $95 billion/month ($60 billion in U.S. #Treasuries and $35 billion in Agency #MBS, with a three-month phase-in period.
Also as expected, the statement reiterated that the #FOMC “anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate,” underscoring the seriousness of #Fed policymakers in getting #inflation and inflation expectations under control.
Read 16 tweets
While there is still considerable uncertainty over the forecast for #inflation, we think both Core #CPI and #PCE inflation peaked in March and February, respectively, and should move appreciably lower by the end of 2022. Image
Throughout the pandemic, strong disposable #income and limited services spending fueled consumer #spending on goods and high goods volumes created #bottlenecks and extreme #inflation. Image
Eventually, excessively easy #MonetaryPolicy caused this robust #inflation to broaden into less disrupted categories.
Read 6 tweets
15 takeaways from .@APompliano’s discussion with .@RaoulGMI that will make an immediate impact

= THREAD 🧵 =
Pre-2017 was #Bitcoin’s first season. It went from completely unknown to the first steps of mainstream adoption.

2017 was the beginning of season 2, which was a continuation of season 1, just on steroids.

2020 was the beginning of season 3, which is where we’re still at…
Season 3 brought in new players. Guys like Paul Tudor Jones, Ray Dalio, and Stanley Druckenmiller say they have #BTC in their portfolio

BTC’s holder base is changing. Historically they weren’t macro traders and just focused on DCA.

Now, #Bitcoin is very correlated to #NASDAQ
Read 17 tweets
FT opinion article: “Central bankers should think twice before pressing the brake even harder - The war against Ukraine has brought a new negative supply shock on top of the old one”. Harder? Thread #bonds #equities #centralbanks #monetarypolicy ft.com/content/41c248…
1/According to the author the invasion of Ukraine has silenced the debate about “transitory” inflation. But where central banks stood impacts how they react. Initially the idea was that inflation was the result of supply issues that could be ignored. This view lost out.
2/Central banks made hawkish turns and have painted themselves into a corner, as the Ukraine crisis has brought a new supply shock. Central banks committed to tightening when the second shock made things worse.
Read 11 tweets
Last Thursday (s. ; or for the full live stream, s. ), @SevimDagdelen from #DieLinke has discussed with @RaniaKhalek & @EugenePuryear esp. the recently decided & billion-dollar rearmament of the German #Bundeswehr...
...as a result of the #RussianFederation's military invasion of #Ukraine, as officially justified by the #GermanFederalGovernment. A recommendable interview! Besides her opposition to such rearmament & the associated fundamental departure...
...from the so-called „#Entspannungspolitik“ established by #WillyBrand & #EgonBahr for #Germany's relationship with the #USSR (& also its territorially largest & politically strongest successor state in the form of the #RussianFederation),...
Read 59 tweets
A few months ago, #markets expected U.S. #inflation to peak by mid-2022 at around 7% to 8% at the headline level and then anticipated that generalized #price gains would decline into year end, closing the year around 4%.
However, the tragic war now unfolding with Russia’s attack upon Ukraine has not only sent #energy prices skyrocketing but it has led to much greater uncertainty over #economic growth and #MonetaryPolicy reaction functions, in Europe and indeed around the world.
Core #CPI (excluding volatile #food and #energy components) came in at 0.5% month-over-month and 6.4% year-over-year. Meanwhile, headline CPI data printed at 0.8% month-over-month and came in at 7.9% year-over-year, the greatest increase over a 12-month period since January 1982.
Read 17 tweets
"Smartphones" trump food. #DigitalID

Nov 1 2021, #CBDC India: "so every single person today, even if he's not able to afford all the 3 meals, is having a #Smartphone in his hand. And I must thank some of the Asian countries which actually revolutionize[d] the smartphone market"
"so these three: the #biometric identity, the no-frills savings account [], & of course the #smartphone, & the fact that data is so cheap in India was the one which actually set the ground... I think #Canada & India started on this journey of instant payments almost together..."
Jan 18 2021, Payments #Canada: "Design attributes for a retail #CBDC... introduction of a new channel for illicit activities, money-laundering, terrorist financing other socially undesirable behaviours."

#DigitalID #Compliance #Surveillance

payments.ca/sites/default/…
Read 8 tweets
With respect to the data, #coreCPI (excluding volatile food and #energy components) came in at 0.6% month-over-month and at a high 6% year-over-year.
Meanwhile, headline #CPI data printed at a strong 0.6% month-over-month and came in at 7.5% year-over-year, the greatest increase over a 12-month period since February 1982.
Additionally, the @federalreserve’s favored measure of #inflation, #corePCE, increased 0.5% in December, bringing the year-over-year figure for the measure to 4.9%, as of that month.
Read 15 tweets
/1

A thread on credit creation, money supply, and how the printer does (and doesn't) go brrrr 🧵🖨💸👇

First, banks don’t lend reserves – banks make a loan first, then they find reserves second (if necessary)...

#monetarypolicy #FederalReserve #Fed
/2

If a bank extends a new loan, it creates a loan asset and a deposit liability on their balance sheet ⚖️:

loan deposit
📄 💵
asset liability

/3

The bank only needs reserves against that loan in case the borrower wants to move his deposit to another bank:

e.g. A borrower from Bank ABC is a construction co who needs to buy materials from a supplier whose checking account is at Bank XYZ...

👷‍♂️↔️💁‍♀️
💸↔️🪵
Read 20 tweets
Speeches are an important element of central bank communication. After two years at the @ecb’s Executive Board, I would like to present a selection of the most relevant of my (more than 30) speeches in a long thread🧵. 1/18
There are several categories of speeches: (1) on #MonetaryPolicy, explaining current policy considerations, (2) on #Narratives about monetary policy, and on the relationship of monetary policy & (3) #FiscalPolicy, (4) #FinancialStability, (5) #Inequality, (6) #ClimateChange. 2/18
#MonetaryPolicy: There are too many speeches to list them all, so let me select a few: on the ECB’s response to the pandemic (6 Apr 2020), mentioning (AFAIK) the concept of the euro area GDP-weighted yield curve for the first time: 3/18 ecb.europa.eu/press/key/date…
Read 18 tweets
With respect to today’s #inflation data, core #CPI (excluding volatile food and energy components) came in at 0.24% month-over-month and 4.04% year-over-year and was driven higher by strong increases in the #rent components, which have a tendency to be persistent.
Further, headline #CPI data printed at a solid 0.41% month-over-month and came in at 5.38% year-over-year.
Today’s data witnessed declines in used vehicles, #airfares and lodging, which should temper #market concerns somewhat, but we anticipate that these components are likely to see #prices bounce back in the months to come.
Read 10 tweets
As expected, the @federalreserve’s Federal Open Market Committee continued to discuss its plans to reduce, or #taper, the pace of its #AssetPurchase program at yesterday’s meeting.
While the details of this discussion were fairly sparse, the Committee statement did state that: “If progress continues broadly as expected, the Committee judges that a moderation in the pace of asset purchases may soon be warranted.”
Further, at the recent #Fed conference in Jackson Hole, Wyo., and at the press conference, Fed #ChairPowell emphasized that both he and most Committee participants now consider the test of “substantial further progress” toward the #inflation mandate to be largely satisfied.
Read 10 tweets
In August we saw #inflation growth moderate further, for the second consecutive month, at least relative to the impressive rate of growth in #prices witnessed around mid-year.
Core #CPI (excluding volatile food and energy components) came in at 0.10% month-over-month and 3.98% year-over-year, which was considerably less than the consensus forecast and was driven higher by #shelter components.
Meanwhile, headline #CPI data printed at a solid 0.27% month-over-month and came in at 5.20% year-over-year.
Read 11 tweets
Inflation data for July moderated somewhat, at least relative to the heady pace of recent months, which should temper #market and policymaker concerns a bit, despite the fact that #inflation will stay sticky-higher for a while and the #risk remains to the high-side.
Core #CPI (excluding volatile food and #energy components) came in at 0.3% month-over-month and 4.3% year-over-year, a bit less than the consensus forecast, and headline CPI data printed at a solid 0.5% month-over-month and came in at 5.4% year-over-year.
While we think that it’s hard to see a case for the recent levels of elevated #inflation turning into “1970s style” runaway price increases, higher #wages and elevated growth for an extended period will allow companies to achieve higher levels of #PricingPower for a time.
Read 7 tweets
#MonetaryPolicy विषयी @RBI चे गव्हर्नर @DasShaktikanta यांचे संबोधन

📅 - आज, 6 ऑगस्ट
⏰- सकाळी 10 वाजल्यापासून थेट

आर्थिक पतधोरण आढावा संबोधन🎥:

पतधोरणानंतर आज दुपारी 12 वाजता पत्रकार परिषद होईल

पत्रकार परिषद लिंक 👉
📡थेट पहा📡

#MonetaryPolicy विषयी @RBI चे गव्हर्नर @DasShaktikanta यांचे संबोधन

पहा
.@RBI ने रेपो दरात कोणताही बदल न करता रेपो दर 4% कायम राखला.

रिव्हर्स रेपो दरही कोणत्याही बदलाविना 3.35% वर कायम.

पतधोरण आढावा समितीची 4, 5 आणि 6 ऑगस्टला बैठक झाली.

- @DasShaktikanta , गव्हर्नर, आरबीआय

Read 24 tweets
Watch @RBI Governor @DasShaktikanta's address on #MonetaryPolicy, today at 10 AM

📅 - 06 August
Live from ⏰- 10 AM

Monetary Policy Address🎥:

Post policy Media conference today at 12:00 Noon
PC Link:
📡LIVE Now📡

#MonetaryPolicy Statement by @RBI Governor @DasShaktikanta

Watch
MPC voted unanimously to leave Policy Repo Rate unchanged at 4%

Also decided on a 5 to 1 majority to continue with the accommodative stands as long as necessary to revive growth on a durable basis and continue to mitigate the impact of #COVID19

- @RBI Governor @DasShaktikanta
Read 28 tweets

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