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Anthony Bardaro Profile picture
Anthony Bardaro
@AnthPB
PM²; capital markets and tech/media/entrepreneurship; leave your mark: https://t.co/zlM0K4rIHR #DYODD #NIA
May 10, 2023 • 6 tweets • 5 min read
@NeelyTamminga @stevehouf 1/5

Both can be true:

🅰️ ending student loan payment moratorium and reversing Biden debt forgiveness are sequentially disruptive (not a shock or crisis)

🅱️ releveraging of deleveraged household balance sheets is not entirely undesirable atm @NeelyTamminga @stevehouf /2

...short-term effects of student loan forbearance:

🙃 moratorium ending shld b "priced in" but multiple extensions have historically/recently had perverse effects (e.g. SUI 🧵 )

🫣 SCOTUS reversing forgiveness cld b more of a cohort shock (not crisis)
May 1, 2023 • 9 tweets • 7 min read
1/8
"artists can no longer appear real on their own" – a perverse notion of centralized platforms becoming gatekeepers for identity/authenticity verification...?

eh, the problem was that anyone thought appearance was reality to being with...

drorpoleg.com/artificial-mon… #AI #LLM ImageImageImage /2

...that's the idea behind @benthompson's 'Zero Trust Authenticity vs castle-and-moat' analogies, e.g.:

Just because a song looks and sounds like Drake doesn't mean it came from Drake – its authenticity must (obviously?) still be verified 👇

medium.com/adventures-in-… #media Image
Mar 20, 2023 • 7 tweets • 5 min read
1/7
It's worth adding to these $sivb snippets from @matt_levine and @benthompson – particularly Stratechery's "The End of Silicon Valley (Bank)", which was more nuanced than it sounds:

•bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…

•stratechery.com/2023/the-death…

🧵👇 /2

...RE The End of Silicon Valley 👇

🅰️ I-95 Belt:
One thing that sank Greater Boston's thriving minicomputer/hardware/tech ecosystem was lack of (local) reinvestment – winners cashed-out vs SV VCs/founders continually reinvest time and money #flywheel

vox.com/2014/12/9/1163… Digital Equipment Corporation (DEC) PDP-7 minicomputer, intr
Jun 25, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
gmafb Chamath...

pot, kettle... ...pot (WSB inciter-in-chief / SPAC king):

Jun 23, 2022 • 4 tweets • 3 min read
/1

"The historical linkage between corporate tax rates and investment growth is non-existent [almost zero, but the correlation] between [interest] rates and investment actually has the wrong sign [they're positively correlated]"

#capex #macro #fiscalpolicy Image /2

"when profits are growing, so does investment [which] also shows a stronger connection with growth expectations – when CEOs expect stronger growth they also are planning higher levels of capex growth"

Image
May 31, 2022 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
/1

...pursuant to prior myths (), here's another misunderstanding debunked – most recently by the Fed itself (2021):

"the money multiplier...is anchored in an obsolete explanation of how the Fed operates and influences banks"

research.stlouisfed.org/publications/p… ImageImageImageImage /2

...money multiplier obsoletion TLDR:

· (fractional) reserve rates were a thing until GFC 2008, and obsoletion redoubled during COVID 2020 when reserve requirements were suspended/lowered to zero

· since reserves are now abundant, POMOs and SOMAs can't influence FFR anymore
May 10, 2022 • 21 tweets • 41 min read
@fed_speak @cullenroche @profplum99 @EconomPic @MstarETFUS @ritholtz @choffstein 0/7

What are the chances that capital markets distortions are not passive's fault, but rather misattributed/coincidental ('correlation not causation')...?

To wit, some hypothetical questions – the devil's advocacy null hypothesis you've asked for...

@fed_speak @cullenroche @profplum99 @EconomPic @MstarETFUS @ritholtz @choffstein /1

Weren't there a lot of reasons for this empirical increase in valuation multiples, e.g.:

• macro (demographics/disinflation/negative real rates)

• technical (TINA/access)

• sector mix-shift (tech)

• ~idiosyncratic ()
Mar 27, 2022 • 21 tweets • 10 min read
... Twitter safe spaces are Twitter Communities and Twitter Spaces is Twitter talk and Twitter's edit button is Twitter's Delete Tweet and Twitter's Vine was Periscope but is now TikTok – you're taking notes, right?!

(... I kid because I love you 🐦)

$twtr ... update:

Not exactly, but it's a start 🤷‍♂️

Image
Jan 5, 2022 • 20 tweets • 6 min read
/1

A thread on credit creation, money supply, and how the printer does (and doesn't) go brrrr 🧵🖨💸👇

First, banks don’t lend reserves – banks make a loan first, then they find reserves second (if necessary)...

#monetarypolicy #FederalReserve #Fed /2

If a bank extends a new loan, it creates a loan asset and a deposit liability on their balance sheet ⚖️:

loan deposit
📄 💵
asset liability

Mar 26, 2021 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
@sheeraf @CaseyNewton would love to continue our convo – had two questions:

1️⃣ scale legal system to exact individual user liability (in cases of legal abuse a la brandenburg or libel)?

2️⃣ more democratic solution for everything else (instead of centralized corporate arbiters)? ... I proposed arbitration as least bad solution for 1️⃣ and @sheeraf's Myanmar example was best exhibit of what I called the "geopolitical problem"

... but can we talk about the US only for a sec?
Jan 29, 2021 • 12 tweets • 9 min read
"Apple CEO Tim Cook links Facebook's business model to real-world violence"

...yeah like Uighurs concentration camps – wouldn't want that 🤥

cnbc.com/2021/01/28/app… ... this dood has revealed himself to be a rare turd:
Dec 29, 2020 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Empirical research about index fund flows, ETFs, and a self-reinforcing size factor bias...
$SPY $VOO $IWB $IWM #distortion #distortedmarkets ... a 1-sigma spike in fund flows predicts +3.5pp outperformance for size ("SMB" = small minus big)
Dec 23, 2020 • 19 tweets • 7 min read
$arkk $arkg becoming the dog wagging the tail... ... $arkb
Nov 13, 2020 • 8 tweets • 3 min read
Good story about Van Halen, Sammy Hagar, and brands/branding from @trengriffin's 25iq archives...

25iq.com/2018/01/06/sam… ... reminds me that "Brand" (in the financial sense) is the dark matter of financial modeling and valuation

... if no other quantitative measure can explain an asset's relative premium, then we often simply drop that premium in the intangible goodwill bucket

#brands #branding
Oct 10, 2020 • 23 tweets • 10 min read
/1 One caveat to this @Jesse_Livermore and @patrick_oshag...

Friedman's maxim "inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon" is somewhat apt here -- albeit somewhat inaccurate in its original context (i.e. money supply causation)...

/2 @Jesse_Livermore correctly draws a line between fiscal and monetary stimulus vis a vis inflation...

However, we did not see much spending or inflation spike after the 2008 or 2020 fiscal stimuli because of *expectations*...
Feb 19, 2020 • 4 tweets • 5 min read
@Wike_Meinstein @johnloeber @BlairReeves @nikillinit Yes, there are only 1.1k MAUs, but **all subscribers are automatically enrolled**...

If you're a subscriber and want to participate, just go to the Forum URL, which is run atop Discourse, and you just use your email and PW from your sub and there's already a profile for you... @Wike_Meinstein @johnloeber @BlairReeves @nikillinit This might have caused a bit of a disturbance in the force (which I can understand and respect), but, to wit...

The Stratechery Forum has now removed the "Users" page where you could once view the aforementioned community data 🤷‍♂️...

Dec 13, 2019 • 11 tweets • 6 min read
/1 Thread: With Disruption Theory having now gone mainstream, Bob Iger went to school on the Innovator's Dilemma...

#DisneyPlus $DIS $NFLX $AMZN $T #streamingwars

cc @modestproposal1 @GavinSBaker @bradsling @RichLightShed @benthompson @Rich_Barton @ballmatthew @kidkapital /2 To gauge expectations, Iger clearly articulated his Disney+ strategic roadmap (and associated tradeoffs) to the Street...

communicating how $DIS's LT franchise opportunity offset its ST financial consequences...
Jun 12, 2019 • 11 tweets • 8 min read
@trengriffin /1 Priceless 😉...

There are two approaches:

🅰️ Hal Varian way of valuing it in isolation

🅱️ Tim O'Reilly way of accounting for aggregate

Since the concern here is GDP (aggregate income or output), a broader consideration like #2 is more appropriate, albeit complex... @trengriffin /2 Take Android OS as an example of open source software's (OSS) contribution to GDP...

Going to control for output items switching fm Consumption to Investment buckets; fm expense to capitalized; fm domestic accts to EX/IM; etc...