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Adam Isacson Profile picture
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Jun 29 • 8 tweets • 5 min read
After about 2 1/2 years, the commander of #Colombia’s army, Gen. Eduardo Zapateiro, is leaving. This is not a bad thing.

elespectador.com/judicial/me-de…

His exit is long overdue. A 7-tweet thread:
Why overdue? I can't speak to the corruption allegations @petrogustavo hints at here, in a recent interview with @estoescambio.

Rather, Gen. Zapateiro has been most problematic because of his public messaging on human rights and civil-military relations.

cambiocolombia.com/articulo/poder…
The General posted this charming tweet, a video of slithering snakes, the day after #Colombia’s transitional justice tribunal concluded that the military killed 6,402 civilians between 2002-2008. Those denouncing “false positives,” you see, were reptiles.

Here’s the General, at one of the most intense moments of #Colombia’s 2021 National Strike, calling the feared ESMAD riot police “heroes in black,” urging them to “keep working as you have been.” The ESMAD were killing and maiming dozens of protesters.

Following a March 2022 raid (colombiapeace.org/what-we-know-a…) in which soldiers likely killed at least 4 non-combatants, the General said, “This isn’t the first operation in which pregnant women and minors get killed.”

When candidate Petro, on Twitter, accused officers of colluding w/ the neo-paramilitary Gulf Clan, the General made a highly irregular foray into electoral politics, reviving an accusation that Petro had taken a cash bribe (charges were dropped in 2021).

Gen. Eduardo Zapateiro sent damaging messages on human rights. His public statements made the armed forces appear improperly aligned with a specific political ideology.

Meanwhile, #Colombia’s insecurity measures worsened, and armed groups proliferated. So no, I won’t miss him.
This thread, as a blog post: adamisacson.com/the-wrong-man-…

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More from @adam_wola

Adam Isacson Profile picture
Jun 29
In the Cancún #Mexico airport, @INAMI_mx agents pulled prominent #Colombia journalist @SebastianForerr aside and prevented him from entering the country.

A plainclothes US @CBP officer was right there with the Mexican agents. He canceled Forero’s valid US visa with black marker:
So next time you hear @lopezobrador_ go on about #Mexico's sovereignty and US imperialism, recall that his government has invited US agents into Mexico's international airports to screen passengers.
This part 1/2:

"The curious thing is that, alongside the INM agents was another official, of US origin, dressed in civilian clothes, who also reviewed documents, asked questions, and checked travelers' cell phones: their WhatsApp, their Facebook profiles, their photo albums."
Read 4 tweets
Adam Isacson Profile picture
Jun 3
Calling Rodolfo Hernández the “Trump of #Colombia” seems off to me. Here, I see more parallels with all-over-the-map populists like AMLO or Bukele. And if Hernández wins, US-Colombian relations could resemble current relations with Mexico or El Salvador…

responsiblestatecraft.org/2022/06/03/how…
…by which I mean: the Biden administration distances itself from the president and civilian leadership, even as it pursues the closest possible military-to-military relationship. Which isn't great.
(Of course, the "military-to-military relationship being stronger than the civilian relationship" thing is even more likely if Petro wins.)
Read 4 tweets
Adam Isacson Profile picture
Jun 2
A brief thread about migration trends in #Mexico, based on Mexican government data updated through April, and through May for asylum seekers.

5 months into 2022, Mexico has already received its 3rd-highest annual total of asylum requests. At this pace 2022 will be 2d after 2021.
New asylum applications in #Mexico have declined for two consecutive months, though.

This is from the latest summary by Mexico's refugee agency @comar_sg, posted today: gob.mx/comar/articulo…
Far fewer people applying for asylum in #Mexico this year are from #Haiti, compared to last year. #Honduras is back in the number-1 position, followed by #Cuba.
Read 8 tweets
Adam Isacson Profile picture
May 17
Thank you. Weird blowup of my profile pic aside, I'd be glad to talk about all of these.
“Over 750k KNOWN gotaways”

Over what time period? The CBP budget request says USBP apprehended or turned back 82.6% last year. Getting to 90% would require huge $.

If got-aways are 750K, then the total migrant number would be over 4 million, plus POEs??

dhs.gov/sites/default/… Image
“Over 1 mil released”

This is people seeking protection. Mostly voluntarily. ~460K fled dictatorships in Cuba, Nica, Ven, Rus. Plus Ukr. Send them back?

That’s a humanitarian crisis. But not a security disaster. Nor is it new: 600K under Trump in 2019.

Read 8 tweets
Adam Isacson Profile picture
May 17
Come on. I've visited 4 of Border Patrol's 9 US-Mexico border sectors since March, and there's just no "disaster zone."

Border communities are going about their lives completely unaffected by the elevated number of migrants, half of whom are being expelled anyway.
Your workload is elevated if you work at a shelter, practice asylum law, or recover remains of migrants who've fallen off the border wall, drowned, or dehydrated.

Border Patrol agents, too, are busy processing asylum—a job that doesn't really require a uniform, gun, or badge.
Unless you work with protection-seeking migrants, it's business as usual in all US border towns I've visited (San Diego, Del Rio, Eagle Pass, Laredo, McAllen, Brownsville).

Schools, supermarkets, restaurants, malls...open and normal. "Disaster zone" talk is politicized nonsense.
Read 4 tweets
Adam Isacson Profile picture
Sep 22, 2021
0/33 Here's a late-night thread about the border right now. This is me talking, not a deliberated WOLA consensus. I have blind spots—we all do—and welcome good-faith corrections.

tl;dr: Even today's high levels of family and asylum-seeking migration are manageable without drama.
1/33 Many Democrats, including those who support immigration reform, see images like this one and worry. They see themselves losing ground to the Greg Abbotts and Ted Cruzes. Even among Latino constituents who had voted reliably Democratic.

2/33 Why would they be losing ground among moderate voters who don't consider themselves anti-immigrant? Because these images look chaotic. They look disorderly.
Read 35 tweets

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