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Emil B.tinkaren Profile picture
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Jun 30 • 3 tweets • 2 min read
If you're not loading up on #coal as hedgies dump for the typical end of quarter ESG window dressing, you're doing it wrong.

$BTU $CEIX $ARCH $AMR
The terminal value for most US thermal coal producers just got extended dramatically, which means they definitely shouldn't be pricing in prices going to $0 after 2024 & trade at ~1x p/e
Imagine dumping thermal #coal (& by extension met coal due to reasons stated before) because oil is going down despite Russia ensuring every single coal plant in EU getting restarted ASAP.

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More from @Edark94

Emil B.tinkaren Profile picture
Jun 29
If y'all curious why oil stonks are getting whacked, this is probably it. The build in products + very low implied demand from todays double whammy EIA report tells us that demand destruction in the US is sadly very evident...

But it's not all doom & gloom!!!
I'm incredibly surprised not more picked up on this dramatic increase of import quotas, second half of the year China crude demand will come ROARING BACK!!!

Will be damn interesting to see if they also plan to expand their export quota 👀
Then we also got total crude storage, draining haaard... when SPR releases end in October alongside China ramping up imports, what do you all reckon might occur?

Read 4 tweets
Emil B.tinkaren Profile picture
Jun 11
Looks like my winning streak finally ended, my first weekly loss since 7 weeks back!😭 Down 6% points for the week, current YTD is slightly under 125%.

The mistake made was not taking profits from the copper rally on Monday, silly of me to not expect a retrace afterwards!!!
Current portfolio:

Most pain this week came from my copper picks, but I already knew being early means that it will be a bumpy ride! Still a big believer in copper here, as long as May lows hold I'll 💎✋& gladly accept poor performance. Rather early than late with cyclicals!
Comments:

Used up most of my cash throughout the week, but raised it all back as CPI came in hot & I'm wary of FOMC + VIX expiration next week. I do think containers is an interesting buy down here tho... might just buy it back on Monday or post FOMC 😅
Read 5 tweets
Emil B.tinkaren Profile picture
May 20
You degenerate fucks got me into gambling a bit with $BAVA, are y'all happy now???

This monkeypox news spread is sus, seems like it will get picked up by the media over the weekend... trusting the shrub & having cash to avoid nasty surprises on Monday isn't such a bad idea 🧐
BAVA is far too late to enter in size, but congrats to those crazy fucks which bought yday. Think it got some juice left if we get a proper #monkeypox scare over the weekend, so I don't mind punting it for fun...

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Fundamentally they are losing money, pisspoor revenue. Using the numbers from their last Q their 2022 revenue is like $150M... yet they got a contract for their MONKEYPOX vaccine for that amount!!!

So uh, WAGMI??? Idk man, I don't do biotech lol.
Read 4 tweets
Emil B.tinkaren Profile picture
May 14
I thought last week was bad, but oh boy this week sure was a rollercoaster. Got absolutely rugged on Monday, made some back Tues/Weds, rugged again on Thursday just to experience FUCK YEAH FRIDAY.

Ended up slightly up for the week, current YTD 91%. Just 3% to go from ATH! 🥳
Current portfolio:

Overtrade a lot, especially with VTNR. Should have just sat on that one... but oh well, made it back by some nice dip buys on Thurs at least, so w/e! Can't be perfect all the time 🥳

Decided to use the rally to distribute my holdings & rebuild my portfolio!
Not much to say other than I'm back in #copper!!! I think the risk is to the UPSIDE for miners overall after they got dumped 30-40% & signs of Shanghai being back soon, but might be early!

Also might just buy back VTNR on Monday, regret selling that one a lot lol.
Read 4 tweets
Emil B.tinkaren Profile picture
May 5
Despite everyone calling out oh how shit OSD are, they've done surprisingly well today. Especially relative to energy co & the broad market.

Probably nothing, but interesting observation nonetheless 🧐
Meanwhile uranium:

Looks like the correlation to tech is far greater than energy 😬
Shipping is a mixed bag, see a few green names but most seem to outperform the broad market by a mile.
Read 4 tweets
Emil B.tinkaren Profile picture
May 5
Well PEXIP got fucked ay lmao. My tech punts are not doing great, but more surprisingly neither are my energy longs. 🧐

But i'm pretty sure we're going r/g today, so I'm not sweating it too much for now 🥳
Uh oh... time to delete all my tweets about being bullish & calling for a bear market rally 😅
pls god if you're listening just give me a lil bounce i swear i wont play around with tech anymore im sorry i know it was bad pls forgive me for my sins amen
Read 5 tweets

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