The Donbas has received much attention of late. However, the war in the south - and freeing Ukraine’s ports from the Russians - is a front of greater strategic importance. 1/7 🧵
https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1543724663519559682
2/ The Ukrainian military has been slowly ‘chipping away’ at Russian defences in the south for some time, particularly in the Kherson region. Note: ‘chipping away’ is not an official tactical term. Sorry @doctrinatrix_C2
3/ Ukraine has been aided in this region by the nascent Ukrainian resistance movement which is operating in several areas across the south.
4/ The Russians, having concentrated much of their offensive combat power in the east, are also more vulnerable in the south.
5/ That said, the Russians have established multiple defensive lines, which will be difficult to penetrate. The Ukrainians have shown in this war how effective a defensive strategy can be if it integrates modern sensors, precision munitions, flexibility and good C2.
6/ The counter-attacks by Ukraine in the south also places Russian forces in a dilemma. Do they sustain their eastern offensive, or do they significantly reinforce the south?
7/ The southern front is vital to #Ukraine. It is a strategically important campaign to seize back territory and ports. But, even with more open ports, Ukraine and the west will still need a solution to Russia’s Black Sea blockade. End.
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